Monday June 5 2023 Forecast (7:38AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

Upper level low pressure continues to dominate our weather and will do so through Friday, though easing its grip as it starts its exit eastward late week. Today will be the wettest day in terms of the amount of hours of rainfall for the region as a whole, with surface low pressure making its closest pass this morning on the westward extent of a cyclonic loop off the Northeast Coast. This brings a swath of rainfall across the region this morning to midday, but it diminishes to just a few isolated showers / sprinkles this afternoon as drier air works in from the north, which is also when we can see some sunbreaks through the cloud cover. It will also be another day of below normal temperatures with a chilly northerly wind, but not quite as “cold” as the weekend was. We warm up a little Tuesday with surface low pressure far enough away and a weaker air flow as well as a little dry air in place to allow for some clearing and therefore additional solar heating, but as another disturbance enters the upper level low over our area from the northwest, accompanied by a surface cold front, there will be the development of showers and possible thunderstorms during the afternoon, and these can produce some gusty winds and small hail. It appears the greatest chance for these will take place in western and southern portions of the forecast area but they are possible anywhere. In addition to the shower and storm threat, some of the smoke from a series of wildfires in Quebec will be in the atmosphere, and some at a low enough level to detect by smell and lower the air quality to borderline unhealthy levels. The irregularly shaped upper low and another loop of surface low pressure back to the west will send more substantial cloudiness and cooler air back into the region for midweek along with a continue chance of occasional showers occurring, but will also push some of the smoke out, improving the air quality. While the shower threat continues Friday, it will lessen as low pressure at both the surface and upper levels finally begins to pull away to the east as the blocking pattern relaxes slightly.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with widespread showers eastern areas and occasional showers to the west. Mostly cloudy this afternoon with scattered to isolated showers favoring eastern areas. Highs 57-64. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower early, favoring eastern areas. Lows 46-53. wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon, most numerous southwestern NH, central MA, eastern CT, and RI. Any showers or storms can produce small hail and briefly gusty wind. Smoke from Canada may reduce visibility and be detectable by smell. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. An evening shower possible. Lows 48-55. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

High pressure briefly controls the weather with fair, milder conditions for the June 10-11 weekend before upper level low pressure returns an unsettled pattern with near to below normal temperatures early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

Overall pattern somewhat unsettled and on the cooler side of normal overall with upper level low pressure in control most of the time.

57 thoughts on “Monday June 5 2023 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    More doom and gloom in the forecast.
    Pretty crappy weather, for sure.

  4. Thank you, TK. I have to go out today so my pajama day streak will end. But I have a medical procedure Wednesday that I prep for Tuesday and weather looks to be perfect for a couple more pajama days.

  11. I seem to think either today or tomorrow is Ace’s ninth(?) anniversary. Happy Anniversary!

    1. Funny you should say that. I just said that while eating meatloaf and mashed potatoes for my lunch.

  15. What is interesting so far today, the sun will come out enough to put down a solid shadow then quickly fade out again. I will call it “fools sun”.

  16. If the 12z GFS and Euro are correct, someone across interior southern New England might get a low top, non severe thundershower tomorrow afternoon.

  17. You’d think we just had the cloudiest May on record. Nope, it was the sunniest on record.

    I think we’ll survive this pattern. It’s only been a few days, not forever. 😉

      1. Stuck under the fair weather portion of the blocking pattern for a long time.

        A lot of people hear the word “blocking” and immediately assume foul weather. Not always. It depends on where the block sets up and where you are in it. 🙂

        This time, a blocking pattern contributed to record sunshine!

  18. I’m pretty sure we’ll have smoke low enough to impact air quality tomorrow. I have updated the blog discussion and forecast to reflect this.

  19. Comfortably warm when sun breaks through. Not bad when it’s behind the clouds either.

  20. Thanks TK.

    The smoke is very thick over the mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes. And take a look at the fresh plumes of extremely dense smoke billowing out of Canada from today’s fire activity. Unfortunately, this problem is far from over. Just a brutal fire year for Canada, nearly every province has been hammered.

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    Many of these fires are lightning starts, as has been the case throughout this multi-week outbreak. As TK has mentioned, while humans do cause the vast majority of wildfires, a disproportionate number of very large fires are started by lightning due to their remote access and slower detection/response times.

      1. Yep, storm risks out here every day this week!

        Not “unprecedented” weather but a lot of pretty unusual stuff happening over North America right now, and definitely an “upside down” type pattern.

    2. It’s amazing to see the suns energy stir the wind, which just makes those fires explode, much like if you fanned a campfire.

      That is relatively close by, I wonder if people will be surprised tomorrow by what is coming.

      1. I remember st albans is not far from the Canadian border. But I don’t know where these fires are in Canada. But then we not that far south as the wind blows. My guess it will be a surprise for a lot of folks.

  22. Late evening temperatures are up considerably compared to the past two. Back to chill Wednesday – Saturday?

  23. Canada’s extensive / early fire season is due to a late-spring persistent blocking set-up and what had already been a dry spell in a large section of the continent. Since they had not had that severe a season in a while, growth was more maximized and “ready to go”. This is the way of nature. This season things came together just so. Definitely part of the “upside down”pattern referenced above.

    Thank you WxW for pointing out that a lot of this season’s fires are due to lightning, as I had done previously. In science, the facts must be stated over just assumptions being made. I’ve been having to bring this up in many places around social media lately.

      1. Yes, their approach is more scientific and well-explained, without the hype wording which, IMO, makes the actual information become lost in the fluff.

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