Tuesday June 6 2023 Forecast (7:17AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

Upper level low pressure continues its reign over our weather, but with a variety of weather dependent on the configuration of the low and associated surface systems. Today, a northwesterly air flow first brings in a significant plume of wildfire smoke (already here as of very early morning) that filters the sun we get, and is even concentrated enough at the surface to be detectable by smell. It also results in a reduction of air quality. The sun, despite a smoke filter, will be enough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the unstable atmosphere this afternoon. Tonight, those end and the smoke plume gets pushed away to the south as the wind flow turns more northerly again, and this will be the theme for mid to late week. Spokes of energy around the upper low will still bring shower chances each day Wednesday through Friday. The Wednesday and Thursday activity will be patchy light rain areas and Friday’s will be more like today’s in a more unstable atmosphere, with pop up showers and a few thunderstorms too. Saturday, we will start to lose upper low finally, as it drifts away to the east, leaving us with just some lingering fair-weather clouds and only the slightest chance of a brief shower in isolated locations.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun joined by developing clouds midday onward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, with any heavier showers/storms capable of producing hail and briefly gusty wind. Best chance of storms central to southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, variable and gusty around some storms.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible mainly in central MA to northeastern CT and northern RI. Lows 48-55. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Remote chance of a passing shower. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

High pressure brings dry weather to finish off the weekend on June 11. Another stretch of unsettled weather takes place early to middle of next week as another upper low moves in along with a cooling trend again.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

The final days of astronomical spring will hold a similar pattern, governed by a low pressure trough, a few shower chances, and near to below normal temperatures.

83 thoughts on “Tuesday June 6 2023 Forecast (7:17AM)”

    1. That particular area from Albany northwest through say Watertown NY and then northwest, north of Lake Erie.

      I wonder if the disc of the sun is even getting through in that zone, at least while the sun is low in the sky …….

    1. Hi rainshine. It does look weird. Even looking straight out everything seems to have an orange hue. And you can smell the smoke.

    1. Joshua, nicely done. Thank you.

      I still think there are too many deniers to accomplish anything meaningful. We shall see. Frankly, I think we are doomed, but
      I am typically Mr. Negative. Sorry.

      1. I am far from a negative person; but in this case, I agree with you. And in large part it will rest on our shoulders along with China, and the European Union.

    2. Wow. Well done, Joshua.

      And timely. I do have some hope that even with the blatant denial of science in this country that other countries will be able to both make positive changes and “shame” us into taking an extremely serious problem …well, seriously.

      I was heartened yesterday when I did some searching for Canada’s view on the cause of the wildfires. Many very credible sources popped up tying them to warming and of course as such humans. I truly am ashamed that in this country something so serious has been made a political game.

    2. My youngest just sent this to me. I am NOT a fan of LIV but think PGA had to make this compromise for the sake of the game. Ratings were down. Thanks to LIV. So there seemed to be little choice.

  13. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor

    I’m waiting for this map to update for May 31st.

    Pretty sure Quebec and Ontario are going to have a lot of yellow added to them, as May was largely hot and dry in those 2 provinces.

    Climatologically, Quebec has lightning most years, but doesn’t produce this many fires this early. Its a tell tale sign how dry the forests are up there.

    In totality, Canada is very dry coast to coast.

    At some point, our wheel of misfortune is going to transition to a different pattern.

    Even if our air comes from Ontario instead of the Maritimes, I believe its going to get us really warm. Not much of the sun’s energy will be used, even in Canada, for evaporation, south of 60N.

    I still feel very good about July and August being consistently warm to hot in New England. Just don’t know if the current pattern makes it all the way into early July or transitions to something else before June ends.

  14. Thanks TK. Did you happen to see the email I sent yesterday? For whatever reason some of my posts recently are not appearing on the blog. NBD just wanted to point out in case anyone else was having this issue.

  15. I sometimes have the same issue, but it seems to have settled down recently.

    I don’t know how to email TK, so I just wait until it works again!

    1. Interesting I pretty much gave up, but obviously working for me today for whatever reason.

  18. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023060612&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2023060612&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023060612&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Case in point to my post above.

    I’m not saying this is going to happen this soon.

    But, its an example of northwest flow above us, 500 mb heights are only 567 to 573 dm and yet the 850 mb temps are projected at 15-17C with 18z temps in the mid-upper 80s.

  19. By the way, I wonder if the 12z GFS will also have a hurricane out around 360-384 hrs like the the 00z and 06z did.

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  21. I wasn’t able to finish my run today due to the poor air quality. I labored for 4 miles but then had to walk the next 2. Now I’m feeling exhausted.

  23. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.fcst.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.fcst.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.fcst.png

    Potential changes in AO and PNA in about 10 days

    Perhaps not as positive a PNA (less western ridging) and a more neutral AO (a little more tightening of low pressure aloft near the pole). I think this could lead to a less amplified pattern and something a bit more progressive.

    1. I wouldn’t know the difference between PNA, AO, DNA…lol. Whatever happens, happens. 🙂

      I sort of understand that stuff during winter, but I am absolutely clueless with summer.

  24. TK – I mentioned here the other day that I was having my chimney looked at this afternoon. Well, they came unexpectedly this morning as the original schedule was sometime between 1-6 pm. I wonder if they came early because of the forecast of possible storms? Anyway, all is good on my chimney so no worries the rest of the day.

    So far, the latest radar is very quiet for SNE with no threats from what I can see. 🙂

  25. TK – Does all this smoke actually prevent daytime heating which prevents thunderstorms to form? I am trying to come up with something positive with wildfire smoke.

    Radar still clear for now.

    1. There’s probably a little bit of a stabilizing influence but not enough to prevent.

      Combination of the best heating and the coldest air loft is to the west and southwest of the Boston area and the short-range guidance had that depicted quite nicely. Things are going along about as expected today.

    1. Just had a lightning notification within 30 miles. Even the building clouds are muted by the smoke haze. Amazing

  28. Crazy busy day for me today…

    Work is done but I have a visit/meeting at the rehab followed by a quick mowing of the lawn to top off the yard waste barrels which get collected tomorrow and it’s also our trash and recycle night so as my brother says we get the trifecta!

    All this while recovering from a pretty severe migraine that hit me just under 24 hours ago. Wheeeeee!

    As I just mentioned in a comment the showers and thunderstorms seem to be where they were expected at this point. I’m kind of hoping they stay outside my area so I can get that lawn done since I can’t start it until 5:00 p.m.

    Oh yeah it’s laundry day too hahaha!

    Later I’ll take a little closer look at things going forward and comment if I see any reason to add to what I already wrote above. 🙂

    1. They are staying just west of here. We had rumbling thunder but not over us. Must be loud in the areas that the line is over. Appears to be one cell after another over pretty much the same area

      1. Yes. Some storms are training particularly over Sturbridge, northern CT and just east of Springfield. My area has gotten into the act as well but to a lesser extent thus far.

        2. Hi arod. ALWAYS nice to see you. I hope all is well. I had noticed that. We didn’t get a drop of rain. Thunder and lightning was decent for being so far from the line

  33. Just got a report from a business that monitors air quality. The reset is showing a very high level of particulate. These are the kind that can be inhaled deeply into the lungs.

    1. This is a quote from the BOH statement.

      . “..a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets found in air and can be made up of hundreds of different chemicals. These particles are so small that they can be inhaled deep into lungs and may even enter a person’s bloodstream.”

  34. Arod appears on the blog. There’s got to be snow somewhere close by. Sure enough, there is, as this forecast from the top of New England says:

    “Tonight, temperatures will hover right around freezing, but will drop to about 30 degrees by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will then remain below freezing as the low retrogrades west and brings much cooler air to the region. As temperatures drop below freezing, precipitation will transition to a wintry mix and/or snow on the higher summits.”

  39. As impressive as our smoke episodes have been, none of them have been as impressive as the July 7 2002 event.

    The day I went to a Red Sox game in the afternoon under a cloudless sky but with thick smoke both surface and aloft. Visibility was only a couple miles at the surface and the smell of smoke at the ballpark was as if the fire was on the field.

    That evening the sun turned brown and vanished (still in a cloudless sky) THREE HOURS before it was to set.

    These events pale in comparison to that one in terms of smoke impact in our region.

  40. There was this strange red fireball in the lower western sky just after dinner time. It certainly couldn’t have been the sun, could it?

    Stupid wildfires! 👿

    1. These ones were lightning-caused. Nature doing its thing.
      The fires, themselves, are not stupid.

      In the case of the human-caused fires, it would be the people who are the stupid ones.

  41. Well hello thunder and lightning. Daughter in north uxbridge near Mendon line had some hail.

      1. Might be headed to north’s area. Or maybe will miss by a bit. We were more of a miss than uxbridge/Mendon but lightning was still vivid and thunder rolling. Just one house shaking clap

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