Wednesday June 7 2023 Forecast (7:31AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

The same old story … upper level low pressure in control. It stays this way until the weekend, when the one over us now finally moves away. Before that, we have a few more unsettled days to go through with shower threats. None of these are “rainy” days, but all contain the chance of rain at some point for at least parts of our region. The upper level low with its center currently to our northeast elongates east-west today then the western lobe begins to drift southward across the region by Thursday and into Friday as the low then reconfigures to more of a symmetrical round shape, centered right across eastern New England and the Gulf of Maine by early Friday, after which it will begin a drift to the east with the last of its effect departing on Saturday. Today’s shower threat comes to northern areas from mid level moisture associated directly with the elongating low, with a swath of wet weather already taking place as I write this in south central and southeastern NH to northeastern MA. Enough solar heating takes place before that to fire up some diurnal showers especially in MA which will move to the southeast, fading later on as the solar fuel diminishes. These will not be widespread for coverage, but can be moderate to briefly heavy where they do occur. You’ll also notice that our thick smoke plume from yesterday is less so as it gets pushed to the south, although it may hang on in CT longer. The plume should then be kept mostly out of the region by the upper low into late week. Another round of diurnal shower development takes place Thursday, and with a little more northeast-southwest orientation of upper low and resultant mid level southwest wind over our area, we may see one or two broken lines of showers and embedded thunderstorms in the region. The threat will be a little higher in southeastern MA tomorrow over today, but they can occur anywhere else in the region as well depending on where the initial development takes place. Another region vulnerable may favor northeastern CT, central MA, and southern NH with tomorrow’s activity, with a late-day fading of activity again. Friday, with the core of the cold air aloft right over us, you’d think that the showers and storms could pop anywhere and everywhere, but at the surface with light winds we may develop a moderate sea breeze which may have a stabilizing influence at least in the coastal plain, keeping shower activity limited or even prevented, with activity focusing more on the inland hilly terrain from southwestern NH through central MA into northeastern CT and northwestern RI. Will monitor this trend on short range guidance. Of diurnal shower/storm development the next 3 days, Friday’s has the greatest chance to produce hail where it occurs. Saturday looks “better” but enough cold air will remain over the region on the western edge of the departing low that we will at least pop some clouds and maybe a few more showers, but these should be limited and may peak quickly around midday. I’ll have to fine-tune that part of the forecast as we get closer to it. By Sunday, that upper low is gone and we’re in a weak ridge of high pressure between it and the next approaching trough, so we get a very nice day. But the next trough may already be spreading high and mid level clouds in by later in the day, so we may not end up with a completely sunny day Sunday.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun southern MA southward early, brighter sun just to the north, and thicker clouds northeastern MA and southern NH with showers into mid morning. Afterward variably cloudy with scattered midday and afternoon showers favoring MA but possible anywhere. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Maybe a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 61-68. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring areas away from the coast. Any storms can produce small hail. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a few midday showers favoring the eastern coastal plain. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine. Increasing clouds later. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH, may be some coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

Large scale pattern again dominated by a low pressure trough with unsettled weather weighted toward the first half of next week. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

Still a tendency for more trough than ridge at upper levels but relaxing a little so that we’re drier overall and temperatures are more seasonable.

59 thoughts on “Wednesday June 7 2023 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  1. Thanks TK, another excellent discussion !!

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=na&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    Bigger view shows Monday’s fire exhaust out over the ocean, south of Nova Scotia

    Smaller view shows yesterday’s fire exhaust over western NY State.

    Perhaps the upper low has moved west enough to give that area some showers, raise the relative humidity and block the sun. Perhaps a chance for making some progress on the fires they have the resources to fight.

  4. Jacob Wycoff suggested using the recycled air function in your car today. Good suggestion.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I guess I am one of the lucky ones.I couldn’t even smell smoke yesterday and while I was out yesterday afternoon, it didn’t bother me in the slightest. Other than the vis, I wouldn’t even know it was there. 🙂 As I said, I am one of the lucky ones as I know many were really bothered by it.

    1. btw, OUTSTANDING discussion this morning. They are always excellent, but something about this one stands out. 🙂

      THANK YOU!

  7. Thanks TK.

    Thanks (for nothing) Canada!

    That was a neat fireball sunset yesterday though. 🙂

  9. https://photos.app.goo.gl/mCUJYbviAk5PHieZ6

    That’s a link to the photo I took at Horn Pond in Woburn about 1/2 hour before sunset yesterday.
    The sun was extremely filtered but still visible.

    In contrast, July 7 2002, with a similar sunset time, the sun was brown by 4:00 p.m. and no longer visible by approximately 5:15 p.m. under a much thicker smoke plume. (See previous comment for satellite comparison.)

  11. It looks on visible like the majority of fires are due north of the eastern tip of Lake Erie.

    Looking on radar, it might be sprinkling in that region, but the more impactful showers are east, guessing 100+ miles.

    Just don’t know if as the storms slowly weakens and battles dry air, if that more plentiful area of showers is going to get another 100+ miles further west.

  14. Thanks TK.

    A $0.02 from me on the wildfire situation: comparisons to past events (i.e. 2002) are very useful to show that these conditions are not unprecedented. It’s also worth keeping in mind that the extent of smoke is as much as result of wind and stability conditions than anything else. It‘s not a 1:1 correlation with how “big and bad” the fires are, it’s more about being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Hence why NYC can be “worst of the century” while not far away in BOS things aren’t bad at all. But this happens pretty routinely out West.

    Nonetheless, even setting aside that 2002 wasn’t long ago at all, we also shouldn’t bury the climate connections: Canada, as well as the Northern US, including New England, will likely see some of the greatest changes (mainly increases) of any regions in their fire seasons in the decades ahead. Warmer temperatures. Longer growing seasons leading to more available biomass to burn. And resultant heightened states of vulnerability in years where winter snows and/or spring rains don’t deliver, like this year. IMO, this line of thinking should certainly be what’s informing policy decisions regarding forest management and resource availability.

    1. Yes I agree and I hope nobody here or anywhere else thinks I’m burying anything.

      If they do, they don’t know me. 😉

      I did point out that the 2002 plume while thicker here, was smaller in scope. 🙂

      1. Definitely not me! I think it’s inevitable with social media today that things tend to get sensationalized, even though they are nonetheless still important. But even though 2002 wasn’t that long ago, it wouldn’t have had nearly this kind of “buzz” surrounding it despite being as bad or worse. So very important to have that perspective.

    2. Thank you, WxW. Sadly. As a whole, this country is choosing to do very little about the influence climate is having and the tremendous part we play.

  22. The circulation around the upper low is compacting the smoke, thereby thickening portions of the plume – hence some of the scenes you are seeing today.

    A similar version of a smaller plume occurred right over our area on 7-7-2002. That is why I bring it up. It’s a good scientific comparison from the angle of the physical process.

    We didn’t see this yesterday, but today, we do.

    We didn’t see it on 7-6-2002. The next day, we did. There was also a bit of an upper low to the northeast of us on that day too, albeit weaker than this one.

    It’s good to know this stuff. And as a scientist, it will be brought up routinely in all places that I talk about my science.

  23. Positive indications for a cool-down and increase in rainfall for western and central Canada in the next 2 weeks, especially toward mid month. Quebec may be a little slower to see relief in terms of important rainfall.

    The main cause for the hot/dry weather was a persistent blocking pattern for a good portion of the spring. Why did this largely go unnoticed by non-mets and the uninformed in our area? Because many people associate blocking with foul weather. We’ve only been on the foul side of a block for the last handful of days. We spent most of May on the fair weather side of the block – hence the sunniest May on record in the region. Two sides every coin.

    1. Other musical birthdays today…

      Dean Martin.
      Joey Scarbury (famous for the hit song “Believe It Or Not” which was used as the theme for the TV show “The Greatest American Hero”.)
      Paddy McAloon, lead singer and songwriter of Prefab Sprout. If you haven’t heard their music, check it out!
      And of course the one and only Tom Jones, who as it turns out recorded a cover version of the song that you posted the video for, along with Art of Noise as the backing band. 🙂

  25. When you do science you include ALL information on a subject, not just some of it.

    Yes there has been an increase in wildfire acreage burn since the 1960s, but we are currently seeing 5 times less burn than we saw in the 1930s. That will be shown by this graph.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5x39o6VUAYGRgy?format=jpg&name=large

    I see 2 main reasons for this.
    1) Less forest to burn today than 90 years ago.
    2) Far better firefighting capabilities now vs. 90 years ago.

    Those are both facts. And it’s important to include ALL information, as I said. Anything less is poor science.

    Again, this doesn’t take anything away from the seriousness of this year’s wildfire season in Canada, but still the data is there to be seen, not ignored.

    1. Interesting and those seem like logical reasons. I’d be interested in worldwide acreage and also Canada specific. But I’m still in an anesthesia haze so will enjoy that a bit longer and look tomorrow 😉

      1. Rest! I’d love to gather more and better data with time. I have a colleague working on it for me since I have very little time to dedicate to such things right now. 🙂

        Hope all went well today!

        1. It did. Thank you. Back in three years. Absolutely love the new doctor. It’s nice to move my doctors closer to Sutton

          I hope all went well with the meeting for your brother.

  26. Ok gotta step aside for a while. I have some important phone calls to make regarding my brother’s situation. Send positive vibes! 🙂

    No changes to forecast based on looking at most recent info. FWIW, the NWS fcst which was previously very gloomy for Saturday has been changed to match the one above. Good call NWS!

  27. White Sox Yankees game postponed due to bad air quality. Smart move as the air quality is in the hazardous category there. Tigers Phillies also postponed.

  29. TK – Will a cooler, wetter Canada mean a warmer, drier New England?

    Hope your brother continues to improve.

    1. It may in that we may get some spillover warmth from the Midwest but we’ll have to see how that configuration sets up.

    1. Outside of the existing smoke, this is the big story today. Major re-invigoration of the western Canada fires, while it’s been a tamer day in Quebec thanks to some clouds and cooler weather.

      The good news for the Northeast is that the western Canada fires aren’t a low altitude smoke concern, and conditions will improve markedly (though not all at once) the next few days thanks to less activity in Quebec and changes in the steering flow. But the crisis rolls on in Canada. Definitely hoping they get some more widespread weather relief soon.

  34. My father has lived in NYC for 80 years and does not recall anything close to this. Sadly it took impacting a major metropolitan area/region to get everyone’s attention about how serious this is when comments in this blog have been saying it for weeks.

    1. These days have happened in our history both there and here.

      They are infrequent and rare to that extent though in any one location.

      Example: Look up the New England Dark Days of 1870. Wildfires are not new, and they are actually LESS frequent in the long term than they were before. Data coming…

      Also, as previously mentioned, 2023 is a “perfect storm” of sorts for Canada with a long-standing weather pattern that created dryness in 3 or 4 vulnerable regions. So they are having a prolific and early fire season. Go back 3 years to 2020, and their fire season was the lowest on record since 1980. We have to look at ALL information, not just a big year. But yes, this is a big year.

Comments are closed.