Thursday June 8 2023 Forecast (7:24AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

Upper level low pressure wobbles around for a couple more days, completing a cyclonic loop moving westward to southwest today into Friday then eastward and starting to move away from the region on Saturday. These 3 days carry shower chances but they differ slightly. Today is the coolest and cloudiest and “most stable” with limited showers and very little chance that any could build to produce thunderstorms. Friday is a more unstable day with scattered mainly afternoon activity capable of producing thunder and small hail, and Saturday this chance continues but coverage reduces to isolated and favoring eastern MA and RI for a portion of the afternoon before support is lost. High pressure builds in for a nice Sunday. Another low pressure trough approaches Monday with a return to unsettled weather at that time, though it may be a slow process with a shower threat holding off until later in the day. We can still see some plumes of both low and high altitude smoke at times over the coming days from Canadian wildfires.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 61-68. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring areas away from the coast. Any storms can produce small hail. Highs 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm midday to mid afternoon, favoring eastern MA and RI. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH, may be some coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers later in the day. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

Large scale pattern again dominated by a low pressure trough with unsettled weather at times, especially early and again late in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

Still a tendency for more trough than ridge at upper levels but relaxing a little so that we’re drier overall and temperatures are more seasonable.

54 thoughts on “Thursday June 8 2023 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  7. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    Thanks (for nothing) Canada! 👿

    I heard on the news this morning that climate change is playing a major role in these wildfires.

    1. It’s certainly not Canada’s fault. But I know you didn’t mean it that way.

      Regarding the possible role that climate change is playing with respect to these specific wildfires, it’s worrisome but I reserve judgment. I’m not one to make a judgment call on the basis of individual weather-related events. In my work I look for trends, not one-off events. I assume that in climate analysis the idea is to look for trends as well. There may indeed be a trend with respect to the wildfires. We’ve certainly had some devastating ones on the North American continent in recent years.

      Please note, I’m not a climate change denier, and I have major environmental concerns: From everyday air pollution to the water we drink to the instability of some of our ecosystems. I’ve had these concerns from childhood, when my conservative Republican mother (yes, many Republicans were once environmentalists) told me about DDT and what it was doing to birds. I’ll never forget her explaining this to me in 1970 and 1971. I was 6 and 7 at the time.

    2. Climate plays a role in all weather. It did for the 1870 fires that caused the “dark days” in New England among others.

      It plays a role in these fires just as much as it played a role in the lack of fires in 2020.

  10. While I am certainly not blaming Canada as a nation for the wildfires, I highly doubt that most are not started by lightning. There must be carelessness and/or arson by humans as well.

    I would be curious as to the nature of those 1870 wildfires TK spoke of in yesterday’s blog. I bet most were not “natural” then either.

    1. Perhaps, but I think a lot of these fires are in remote areas of thick fire.

      I suppose it could be campers with fires, but I think most of the eastern Canada fires are really related to lightning on the front that ended our 6 day stretch of 100% sunshine several days ago.

    2. While the overall “caused-by” stats are decent, nearly all of the Quebec-Ontario fires supplying the recent smoke were sparked by thunderstorms over the span of a few hours on June 2.

      A few of them were arson or carelessness.

      In 1870, lightning and out of control on-farm burning were the main causes.

      The issue this year, in contrast to the low fire year of 2020, is a large area had a persistent dry pattern. That large an area with those conditions for that long is a low frequency event.

  12. The GFS sure is consistent on something coming out of the Caribbean. It has moved a bit forward in the extreme long range (360-384 hrs) to now hr 324 at landfall. We’ll keep watching to see if moves further forward in time in the coming days.

  13. We have a narrow line of impressive cumulus clouds, SW to NE oriented. About almost overhead, slightly south of overhead.

    Don’t know if there’s a convergence area with a south coast seabreeze ?? Nothing on radar, but something looks like it might pop.

  15. While reliable data shows that it is lightning that has caused most fires, reliable data also shows that there is strong scientific evidence that the dryness is caused by global warming. And while I absolutely understand weather is cyclical, the influence caused by our pollution is man made. To me, if we create the warming areas that then are susceptible to burn as well as the propensity for more severe storms with our over pollution, then we are also responsible for the fires. Weather it is caused by lightning or campfires.

    I don’t know why we are so hesitant to admit we have made a mess of our planet when so many other countries reliably and scientifically do so.

  16. What disturbs me most about the discussion in the fractured and politicized media (we don’t have a neutral medium anymore in this country) on the wildfires and the air pollution it is causing is the extremely polarized nature of the `debate.’ It’s not a healthy debate. And going forward as a nation that’s worrisome. Both sides are not talking to each other. Rather, they’re aiming at either ridiculing the other side – which is unconstructive, in my view – or using talking points that please the base audience.

    So, we’re left with either doomsday scenarios or an “everything’s fine” narrative. There is NO way we can move forward and find common sense solutions to environmental problems based on these perspectives.

    It’s laughable that on Fox News we have folks saying the air is fine, just go about your business, nothing to see here. I can tell you that Republicans of yesteryear would NOT have said this bull crap. From Teddy Roosevelt to George W. Bush they all would have rightly said this is not a good situation, especially for vulnerable populations.

    At the same time, I’m uneasy when I hear on NPR that the wildfires are a “direct result of climate change.” A more sensible way of talking – and one which I think we can all agree on – is to say that “it’s possible these wildfires have to do with climate change.” Subsequently, rather than fear-monger, calmly tell the audience that we need to be prudent stewards of the earth.

    I am well aware that the way I talk isn’t click-baity. I hate being click-baity. It gets us as a society nowhere. It’s often selfish and narcissistic. Finding common ground is a lot harder to do. But it’s necessary to transcend today’s bitterly divided discourse.

    1. Good comment Joshua. The push and pull of media drive me nuts. Bidens comment on temp max also did.

      The term climate change aside, I like to think that most understand that we have polluted land, water and air. I know for fact that at a minimum PCBs and mercury are in every single body of water including both poles. That is a minute part of what we have done. I know this to be fact because that was a big part of Mac’s research and testing. And that was a decade or more ago and has continued. And our damage is hardly limited to that.

      As such it seems we take steps to eliminate the pollution we are creating. If there is a middle ground on this, I surely don’t see it. If there is a view that extreme pollution does not impact weather, I would be very Interested in that. I’d also be interested in reasons why we should not take immediate steps to begin reducing our pollution. (My questions are general topics that I’d like to understand more on and not directed at any person)

      Is there a point of no return? I suspect we are past that but also do not believe it is imminent. That does not mean that the harm we have done will completely reverse. Most scientists believe that will not happen. It seems to mean that extremes in our weather will continue or perhaps level off at an extreme compared to past weather history.

      Science mag (science.org) bias……https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/science-magazine/

      https://www.science.org/content/article/climates-point-no-return

      https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/

  17. Euro Ensemble forecasts NO 90+ temps at Boston through June 22. In fact, it doesn’t even forecast any 80s…

    1. The CPC outlooks concur, not surprising. An overall cooler than normal summer ahead?

      2009-ish?

      1. 2009 no. That was a very specifically wet/cold June/July and warm/dry August/September. Very different pattern.

    2. Works for me. How does south look? Got kids heading in that direction.

      I’d like to sit out. Kids would like to play out. As much as I’d like that though, my heart aches for the folks in Canada. What we gave is nothing compared to what they are living with.

    1. If I’m interpreting the first satellite correctly, the fire is so hot, it’s able to create its own cumulus clouds above the hottest air.

      1. Pyrocumulus. There are some amazing time lapse videos of this from major fires through the years.

  19. A weird question.

    I’m dealing with a gas leak outside my building. It’s been an all-day event. National Grid folks are outside the building trying to ascertain where it’s coming from. No luck so far, and they’ve been looking since noon. It’s not in my building, but the guy who monitors says he detects a small (not dangerous) amount in the boiler room. He will be checking every hour until the leak is found and stopped. Just now a tenant in the building told me her smoke/CO monitor was chirping (other side of the building). She thinks it could be related. I don’t know. The smoke/CO monitor doesn’t measure the gas that NG is looking for, right?

    1. It’s not designed to, no. My guess is it’s a coincidence. Time for a new battery.

      1. Bingo. You got it. You know everything, TK.

        I just spoke to the National Grid folks and they said exactly that. Just to be sure, they did look for gas in the tenant’s apartment and didn’t find any.

        1. Joshua. A year ago April the plug in CO monitor my SIL had in the basement went off at 2 am. The wired monitors did not. We assumed battery. At 9 the next morning (7 hours later) our wired monitors went off.

          SIl dug out his CO meter. We were high My bed is above a vent. I had a horrific headache all day as we sat outside and waited for the house to clear. We were VERY lucky

          Get the fire department to take a measure. That is what they do. You may be right but I sure as hell would not assume.

          1. Just asked both sons In law. They said nat grid may be right but they are in the business and said not a bad idea to have BFD measure

            1. Adding another friend in the business asked if person with chirping monitor is in basement area. A gas leak will follow pipes underground into basement. He thought it is probably ok to go with guy in boiler room as long as chirping isn’t in a basement room too since chirping can also indicate low battery. Be safe

  20. Sox look totally lost. If this continues there is no question in my mind that Bloom will go. The roster is really quite bad, especially the many gaps in it and the incredibly poor defense. Cora is a likely firing, too.

    At this point last season they were on a roll. That roll ended in early July. It seems like the Sox very brief roll this year ended 6 weeks earlier.

    1. I’ve been done with the Red Sox since their home opening day loss. I wasn’t fooled by their early winning streak. I am totally done with the Bruins and Celtics FOREVER whether they make their respective postseason appearances or not. They have proven year after year after year that they never FINISH THE DEAL!!! 👿

      One thing about the Red Sox though. Since 2004 whenever they made it to the WS, they have always won it! (4 for 4) 🙂

      Move on to the Patriots Joshua! At least it’s a short season. 🙂

      2. So you’re going to ignore the post I made the other day about the fact that they don’t prove this year after year and that they’ve won championships in recent years? NOTE: You count recent as starting with the 2004 Red Sox as you stated in a previous post. So you won’t root for the home teams “ever again” because they lost? The Bruins may have been disappointing in the first round, but they lost to a team that was simply better in the series, although it did go 7 games. And believe me, the Bruins regular season was NO fluke. You may want to make sure you’re 100% serious about being done with the Bruins and Celtics forever, because I actually don’t believe you. You’ll be rooting for both teams next season. Mark my words. 🙂

        1. You and I think so much alike when it comes to fair weather …weather related or sports related. Great comment TK

          1. Indeed.
            I mean to each their own, but I just never understood people turning their back on a team they claim to be a fan of – because they lost. That’s not what a real fan does. Disappointment is one thing, quitting is another. Lifelong fan of my teams. With them I live & die, laugh & cry, and never say goodbye. Pardon the poetry. 😉

  21. Helpful rain in both major fire areas of Canada next week.
    Also a cool-down coming later next week and beyond…

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