Friday June 9 2023 Forecast (6:57AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

Today is the day that the upper low that’s been in our region for days starts its exit, but we’ll still be under its cold pool, which makes the atmosphere unstable. Solar heating triggers the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and two sea breeze boundaries can focus some of the activity in a couple areas. The first of these is the South Coast sea breeze which may try to orient convection in a west-east line south of I-90 by mid to late afternoon, and a smaller version of this in a north-south line can occur near the MA North Shore and NH Seacoast later in the day. Otherwise, look for the popcorn variety showers elsewhere in the region. Note: Any of these showers can grow enough to produce lightning and small hail, hence the inclusion of thunderstorms and frozen ice ball potential in the detailed forecast that appears below. This activity will fade with the setting sun, but with some lingering around with clearer sky in dry air between showers, I’ll have to issue a rainbow watch for this evening! This type of pattern / set-up results in rather picturesque skies if we are not overtaken by too much overcast, so camera people, keep an eye out for that! As far as wildfire smoke goes, the lower level plume has been pushed just to our south but the northern portion of that may get back into the South Coast region with the development of a sea breeze during the day today. Thin upper level smoke may be around Saturday while the surface smoke plume is pushed to the south again in a more northerly air flow. Upper level low pressure exits to the east on Saturday, but we’ll be on the western edge of its cold pool sufficiently enough for solar heating to trigger another round of showers and possible thunder/hail, but this time in isolated form and more likely confined to the I-95 belt eastward and during the hours of 11 a.m. to 5 p.m., before support is lost and any left vanish. This leaves Saturday night and Sunday free of any rainfall threat as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in and moves across the region. Some smoke can return on Sunday from the west northwest at high levels and the southwest at the surface, especially in southern portions of the region, but right now it does not look as thick as what we saw at the peak of the event recently. Sunday’s temperatures will be the warmer of the 2 weekend days, but not “hot”. Heading into early next week, we return to our unsettled weather regime as the next trough of low pressure moves in from the west. Initially, a warm front approaches Monday with clouds and wet weather chances going up. Low pressure development to our south then has to track northward on the eastern side of the approaching upper trough and has the chance to bring a swath of significant rainfall sometime later Monday into a portion of Tuesday along with muggier air than we’ve had to deal with for a while. Although once again, temperatures will trend to below normal so when you hear the term “muggy” or “humid”, don’t automatically assume heat goes with it, because it won’t be this time either.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, with most activity occurring after 2 p.m. Any storms can produce small hail. Highs 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes, but any heavier showers/storms can produce variable, briefly gusty wind.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm midday to mid afternoon, favoring NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH, may be some coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain at times in the afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog. More humid with dew point temperatures above 60 becoming likely. Lows 60-67. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH but may becoming variable at times.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Upper level low pressure crosses the region midweek next week with diurnal shower chances and below normal temperatures expected. Upper low exits with more of a westerly air flow and a drier, milder trend late week. Also of importance is that the outlook is for some beneficial rain to visit both major fire areas in Canada next week, lessening smoke coming from those source regions and therefore drastically reducing the chances of smoke both surface and aloft having to be part of the day-to-day forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Overall pattern favors a weak low pressure trough in a more zonal and less blocked pattern with a couple opportunities for showers/thunderstorms, but mainly fair weather and temperatures below to near normal. The summer solstice occurs on June 21.

44 thoughts on “Friday June 9 2023 Forecast (6:57AM)”

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Just to clarify on the Red Sox, I am concerned about the direction they’ve been going, but I definitely remain of fan. There are only 2 teams in sports I love: Red Sox and Bruins. I remain loyal to both, and, yes, even if they go 0 and 162 and 0 and 82, respectively.

    1. With all of our local sports teams, it’s when they come “thisclose” to a championship that it really hurts. If they go 0 and “ whatever” I can actually move on and wait for next year. That’s just me I guess.

  4. This could be a 2-3 year or longer cycle for excessive Canadian Wildfires.

    A strong, possibly super El Niño is projected.

    Canada is usually mild and dry in strong El Nino’s. Yes, it’s possible that would not be the outcome.

    Typically, California to the gulf coast is where the heavy moisture goes.

    Imagine a dry, warmer than average winter following this that is unfolding ??

  5. Thanks TK.

    Excellent discussion regarding dew points and temperatures. :mrgreen:

    Sometimes when air temperatures are only in the 70s and dew points are in the 60s, for example, can feel just as uncomfortable as when air temperatures are in the 90s.

  7. Thank you, TK. Excellent discussion, especially re smoke. My kids hand been limiting outdoor activity for their kids. My granddaughter has a riding lesson today and from your discussion it looks safe enough.

  9. Thank you, TK, for another excellent and informative discussion.

    I believe today is the anniversary of the Worcester tornado. I was only 2 yrs. old at the time but a few yrs. later I remember my parents saying they found a page from a Worcester telephone book in our yard. We were living in Quincy at the time.

    1. Thanks for the reminder rainshine. I was still a few years away from being born. I have enough trouble remembering a weather event from the year before. 😉

    2. Rainshine I remember stories my mom told me of pieces of things being found a great distance away. But your parents finding something in your yard is fascinating.

  10. Thanks TK
    70 years ago today the F4 Worcester tornado. It was on the ground for 84 minutes.

      1. In 1953, had Don Kent even begun his career at WBZ radio/tv yet? That year seems like ancient history. So many things we take for granted today was likely in its earliest stages, not to mention weather forecasting itself.

        It’s hard enough preparing folks for tornadoes here in 2023.

    2. I have the book, Tornado! 84 minutes, 94 lives written by John M. O’Toole. Some photographs and when and where the tornado started and ended. Plus many people’s stories. Many tragic and some were lucky. I think the tornado became 2 tornadoes – a smaller one went a bit south. The bigger one stopped in Fayville, which is the eastern part of Southboro, not far from where we lived in our last home in western Framingham.

  15. Getting dark w/thunder in Sudbury. Was reading the book I mentioned earlier and put it away. A bit superstitious. But I knew we would get thunderstorms today.

    1. Funny how those feelings happen. And I would have put it away also. Sun out following hail but clouds are fascinating

      1. Absolutely pouring here now w/ lots of thunder. And I noticed the clouds, too. Last few storms this season clouds weren’t that impressive – here anyway. Just started hailing! Pea sized hail here in Sudbury w/heavy rain and lots of thunder and lightning.

  18. Had a big storm come through Sharon about a half hour ago. Worst storm I’ve seen in a long time. Lots of cloud to ground lightning and pea sized hail that covered the ground.

    1. Awesome. We had hail in photos above but that was before we had the thunder storm. Neither was anything very special

  19. On I-95 S in Reading I witnessed a very long lightning bolt that arced out of the storm to the northwest and stretched to behind the trees ahead of me (slightly to the left) so I could not tell if it was a cloud-to-ground or a bolt that ended in the air or cloud-to-cloud. What I found out a short time later is that wherever the bolt was, the closest part of it was about 3,500 feet from WHW’s location (either overhead or as a nearby CG). I haven’t been able to confirm.

  20. CPC outlooks (6-10, 8-14, and beyond 14) indicate a lot of below normal temps Northeast and West, warmest in the Plains but no real serious heat anywhere except maybe the western Gulf Coast / central & southern Texas.

    Canada should be trending cooler and a little wetter with time as well, especially where it’s been hottest. Might take longer to get some of the wet weather into eastern locations though.

    EPS continues to show temps below 80 through 360 hours at Boston.

      1. Per Taunton climate data, June 2009 ended up 4.7F below avg.

        June 2023 is currently at 3.8F below average.

      2. Boston reached or exceeded 80F on two occasions in June of 2009. The high temp was 83 on June 7 and 84 on June 26.

        All other high temps were sub-80.

        But that doesn’t mean that June 2023 will be cooler than June 2009. So far, it’s not, but we’re also only 1/3 of the way in. The rest is based on projection, not observation. So we should let it occur before we verify it.

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