Saturday June 10 2023 Forecast (9:51AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

The temperature and dew point met each other overnight in many areas, causing areas of fog, some of it quite dense. Fog and stratus linger mainly in the eastern MA coastal plain as of mid morning but will be mixing out soon as solar heating works on it. We have one more day under the influence of the upper low that’s been around all week, but today’s impact will be far less than yesterday’s in the vast majority of the region. The exception will be any areas that happen to be hit by a passing shower or thunderstorm, which will be more isolated today, but possible at any time – with a tendency for most of them to occur in the noon to 6 p.m. window. Once again any of these could produce small hail, but it’s important to stress that these occurrences will be far more isolated than yesterday’s activity, so outdoor plans should be largely a “go” with just the need to keep an eye out for a shower or storm and have a plan of action in case. Tonight we should only see patchy ground fog form, and it will be a quiet night though some clouds will linger. Sunday’s the “pick” of the week and the weekend as well – the nicest day with the most sun, weighted toward the first half to 2/3 of the day before we see clouds from the next approaching trough start to move in. Some short range guidance has indicated a shower threat later Sunday for interior locations in response to warm air advection, but my emphasis is on increasing clouds and not much of a shower threat, so I am leaving that out of the forecast. It doesn’t get left out of the forecast for early in the week though, when warm frontal rain is probable on Monday and cold frontal showers, some heavy, will be around Monday night into Tuesday as surface low pressure heads through the Great Lakes and a weak secondary low forms to our south and moves up across the region. A dry slot may work in during Tuesday and cut off the shower threat for a number of hours, but these details can be refined with the help of short-range guidance in the next few days. By the time we get to Wednesday, we’re back underneath an upper level low with a cold pool aloft and more diurnal shower development as the same weather pattern rolls on.

TODAY: Low clouds/fog linger into mid morning eastern MA coastal plain, otherwise clouds give way to a sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon, and any can produce small hail. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming N 5-15 MPH, then locally E along eastern coastal areas of NH and MA during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny through midday then increasing clouds thereafter. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH, but some coastal sea breezes likely.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain at times in the afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog. More humid with dew point temperatures above 60 becoming likely. Lows 60-67. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH but may becoming variable at times.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

Upper level low pressure continues to cause mainly diurnal shower chances especially the first part of the period before it lifts out to a more westerly air flow with less shower chances later in the period. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

Weak westerly flow overall but tendency for low pressure trough to dominate with a couple shower chances and no major heat in sight as we welcome Summer 2023 (solstice June 21).

44 thoughts on “Saturday June 10 2023 Forecast (9:51AM)”

    1. Woooo!! You’re going to get some unsettled New England weather when you get here!

      1. My college class is sort of famous for generating rain- poured rain during our (outdoor) graduation, rained for 6 of the 7 days of our canoe trip… so I won’t be surprised if the upper valley forecast for next weekend has rain 🙁

        1. Well, right now the outlook for next weekend is nearly identical to this one, so maybe not. 🙂

  2. Good morning and thank you TK. A rather downer forecast bordering on the Miserable. There is rain in the forecast almost every day. And that upper low….GEEZ, today is day # 8 for that Sucker! Gimmie a break! And then as a reward we get yet another one! How nice. Spring in New England.

    Sorry I was awol yesterday. Was out fishing all morning and then got busy and never tuned in. That is the first time in a long time i’ve done that.

    Getting too old to go out fishing. I managed to take quit a tumble yesterday as the ground gave out on me between the rocks and I took a header. Came out relatively unscathed with just a few cuts and scrapes. I also narrowly missed ending up in the water. I am fine with balance on flat ground, but start adding slope to it, the steeper the slope, the worse off I am . Often the best fishing spots require negotiating slopes (sometimes a little slippery to boot). I may just give it up. I knew the day would come and it looks like it has arrived.

    Oh well, such is life.

    Yesterday, it looked like we would get pummeled here. We could here thunder and the radar was lit up like a Christmas tree. But the cells weakened rapidly as they approached. We got a torrential downpour the lasted only a minute or 2 and then it rained light to occasionally moderate for about an hour more and that was it, aside from a sprinkle here and there. No thunder and lightning when it arrived.

    What will today bring?

    2. Oh no, OS. I’m sorry to hear you had a fall. Glad your bruises were minor and also you didn’t end up in the water. I also have difficulty on uneven surfaces so absolutely understand.

      You had me smiling with your “such as life” comment. My brother and I talk every night. He is still struggling with health issues which are improving, but often when we talk about them one or the other of us will say…”well, such is life.”

      And that it is!

  4. Thank you, TK.

    I saw your post on largest North American fire at the end of yesterday’s blog. It reminded me of the Miramichi fire also in Canada. It is Among the top three ever. We spent time at Ted’s place on the Miramichi when I was a teen. Absolutely magnificent area of the world.

    Both were man made. I have to do more reading but these “greats” of long ago are spread out by years. Sadly, we now seem to be experiencing the “largest ever” at alarming rates.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1825_Miramichi_fire

  6. For me anyway, the next upper low, I think will feel more “summerish” with higher humidity and near avg temps.

    I get annoyed with the ones that are raw or chilly, like this last one. Although, the weather yesterday was fairly fun.

    1. With a bit more southwest air flow in place leading into it, that is a correct meteorological assumption. We also have about 7 days climate advantage as we get closer to summer. 🙂

  7. Blue sky dotted with white clouds is being replaced by towering grey clouds. A couple of tiny cells out this way.

  8. I meant to share this the other day.
    This chart shows the wildfire numbers and acreage burned for Canada starting in 1980 and ending last year. You can see a small trend upward in the 1980s followed by a gradual long-term downward trend since. This is largely due to better firefighting techniques and hopefully due to better awareness, although that is somewhat counteracted by an increase in population.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/fzADKQMZ22ddtghV6

  10. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    I heard on the radio (WBZ) early this morning that El Niño is starting up two months ahead of schedule out in the Pacific which means it could be quite strong due to the head start. The WBZ newscaster then went on to say that El Niño in New England usually means a warmer/wetter winter.

    Whatever weather information I hear on WBZ radio (especially early mornings) I take with a HUGE grain of salt now. Or is this fairly accurate?

    1. The info was incorrect. It’s starting right when it was expected to. And I wouldn’t put too much stock into what they say about winter. ENSO is one out of anywhere between 6 and 12 major indices that will go into shaping the winter pattern. So at best, that’s 1/6 of the winter forecast, assuming its effect is “typical” and only 6 major indices involved. More salt please!

  11. The one thing I’ve noticed on the last few GFS runs and it’s quite normal I think …..

    The atmosphere overall looks to warm in the next 7-10 days.

    So, higher 500 mb heights within a pattern that itself doesn’t change a ton.

    The current closed low had 500 mb heights of 552 dm or so along with 850 mb temps of 5-6C.

    In 192 hrs, it projects another closed low at around 570 dm and 850mb temps of 10-11C.

    1. Yes. Related to what I said previously. As we move through late spring toward summer, climatology says the overall upper pattern weakens and warms. While this is slower than average, it’s still gradually doing what it does. 🙂 It takes more anomaly to get us back to levels we were at previously, but without that looking likely, it’s a similar pattern – just less “intense”.

  14. Thanks TK for your response regarding El Niño.

    Like that old saying “nothing good happens after midnight” and certainly WBZ radio weather information is a textbook example. 😉

    While weather information via radio overall regardless of the time of day/night is just plain bad nowadays, perhaps it should be given by actual meteorologists rather than newscasters or disc jockeys reading off of a sheet of paper. I am also beginning to wonder now if even overnight news in general contain a number of inaccuracies as well. I get up 5 days per week at 3:00 am to get ready for work but who knows the news/weather accuracy at 3:00 pm? Oh well. 😉

    Thankfully TV weather is usually spot on with correct and updated information at all hours. 🙂

  16. Thank you, TK.

    Went to Jamaica Plain the morning – what a great part of Boston, by the way, took a walk around the pond – to see my son’s new place. Upon my return to Boston I noticed a darkening sky. Good thing I brought my umbrella. It poured on the way from Back Bay station to my apartment. There was lightning, too. This must have impacted the Pride parade, though judging from the crowds I could see streaming towards the Boston Common it didn’t dissuade folks from making their voices heard.

    1. Sounds like quite a walk, Joshua. Glad your son is settled close by. Nice to hear there was a good turnout at the pride parade. Lots of celebrations this weekend.

    2. Should have waved to me. I could have almost reached out my hand to shake yours, that how close you were to my house. We love it here and have been here since 1971. 🙂

  17. Thanks, TK!

    From yesterday morning’s discussion:

    This activity will fade with the setting sun, but with some lingering around with clearer sky in dry air between showers, I’ll have to issue a rainbow watch for this evening!

    Check this out:

    https://imgur.com/tSaNzF4

    Source: The Cape Cod (Facebook) Photography page

  18. Several clusters of storms/cells came by here, but ALL split the uprights, literally splitting in 2, with one cell pass W&S of us and the other passing E&S of us. Phillip said he had a downpour, yep, one of the ones passing E&S of us. We heard thunder, but Nothing overhead. NOT a drop of rain fell here. 🙂 Funny how that happens sometimes. Beautifully sunny right now.
    Not sure if anything else will pop. Looks like the instability has moved off.

    I still see a few far N&W of here. Perhaps with the sunshine, additionally cells will fire up or the ones way out there will
    intensify. Frankly, I doubt I see anything, but we shall see.

  19. It poured briefly about an hour ago in downtown Boston and then the sun came out.

    Heading down to the NE Revolution game at Gillette tonight – first live soccer game with my 13 year old son and my own first since the World Cup at Foxborough in the ‘90’s. Won’t miss the old steel benches!

    1. Beautiful dogs. They can be frightening, like when I had a paper route and a German Shepherd chased me on my bike after getting out of an enclosed space – scared the crap out of me. Somehow I biked faster than the dog could run.

      But, another time I wasn’t so lucky. Also while delivering newspapers I got chased by a young Doberman. It bit me on my ankle, tore away at it. The scar is still there. And the fear of dogs is instilled in me.

      Perhaps to cure me of my fear, my mother surprised us all by getting a German Shepherd. But I wasn’t cured. I admit I was kind of scared of the family dog. Not a good thing..

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