Sunday June 11 2023 Forecast (7:34AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

People often react like weather patterns that they don’t like last forever. Well, they don’t. And even the general pattern of cool and more recently quite unsettled weather won’t last forever, but for now, we’re still not done with it. The same general pattern dominates, but there are breaks, like today. We have a small ridge of high pressure traversing the region to provide a dry, warmer day today. It’s not going to be “summer hot” but it will be quite nice for many to be outside, between that “it’s too cool” and “it’s too hot” feel. Enjoy if you can, it doesn’t last. Another upper low is heading this way and will dominate our weather from later Monday through midweek. First it brings a showery episode Monday night into Tuesday morning then occasional shower episodes later Tuesday and another later Wednesday. When we get to Thursday, we’ll be under a cold pool aloft with just some diurnal pop up shower activity, similar to what we saw the last couple days.

TODAY: Mostly sunny through midday then increasing clouds thereafter. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH, but some coastal sea breezes likely.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely and a possible thunderstorm late evening on. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm early, then mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers. Highs 68-75. Dew point above 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny morning-midday. Mostly cloudy later in the day with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers in the evening, then breaking clouds but areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

No major pattern changes as we head through the final 5 days of spring, but after a few diurnal showers June 16, the timing may be such that a stretch of fair weather coincides with the June 17-18 weekend before the next trough and shower chance arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

Just in time for summer, the blocked nature of the large scale pattern breaks down, but the general pattern is likely to be troughs on both coasts and ridge in the central USA (the forecast of the general pattern for the first part of summer). This would mean more seasonable weather but still some shower chances, and no major heat, for our region.

43 thoughts on “Sunday June 11 2023 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    DAYS 11-15 I get the impression of an omega block. Correct? Is that going to be the general theme for this upcoming summer?

    2. No, actually quite the opposite. The blocking nature of the pattern breaks down.

      Trough / ridge / trough in this case is a zonal pattern. Zonal patterns are not straight west to east across the entire country. There is always at least some semblance of trough / ridge somewhere, even if it’s very subtle / low amplitude. This is what I think our pattern will be into July. Mostly zonal, trough Great Lakes / Northeast, ridge Midwest/Plains / trough West Coast.

  5. Thanks TK
    First watcher this warm weather season for POTENTIAL Severe weather this Wednesday???
    From NWS Boston Discussion
    CIPS severe weather probability
    guidance suggests a 10 to 30 percent chance of severe weather on
    Wednesday with the greatest chances focused across western MA and
    CT. This is largely because the consensus among the latest suite of
    model guidance is for the strongest forcing to be focused over this
    area during peak heating Wednesday afternoon. Should this system
    speed up, we would expect an increase in severe weather potential
    further east. There is still plenty of time for the forecast to
    change, but Wednesday will be a day to watch closely as we head into
    the new week. Hazards would be limited to damaging wind gusts and
    small hail as low-level wind shear would not be strong enough to
    support a substantial tornado threat

  6. Tweet from Tim Kelley

    it was snowing on Mt Washington – day 7 in a row
    another .8″
    now 8.4″ #NHwx #Snow June 2023
    topping 8.1″ June 1959
    makes this the snowiest June in our life

    1. Thank you again. Washington and especially snow on the summit always bring warm memories of my dad.

  9. We saw John Mellencamp at the Wang Theatre last night.

    He and his band were great !! 71, smoking on stage and his voice is still excellent !

    Knowing we were going, I had read some reviews and wasn’t surprised by the cantankerous person that he is and the swearing.

    Pretty good story teller too and thought it was cool that one of the guatarists has been in his band for 50 years.

    It was a crowd that was in my age group. Lots of people I’d say between 40 and 70, whereas Elton John last summer had definitely appealed to also a younger generation with his teaming up with younger music well knowns, of which I couldn’t name one of them. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. So you came to the big city? Pretty crowded in that area? No?
      Where did you park? In the garage next to the Wang Center?

      Happy you enjoyed!

      1. We were at a Garage further down in China Town, only a street or 2 away from the highway.

        We ended up at the Tam Pub before the show for a while.

        Growing up in Dorchester, my wife knows the city with her eyes closed.

        It’s funny, his song Small Town is one of my favorite cause I can totally relate to it, so when we’re in Boston, I totally rely on my wife for where we are going.

        It was a great experience, we loved it, thanks.

  10. Ooo Logan is up to 70! It’s a heat wave. Wickid hott!

    They should max out about 76 or 77 today.

    1. Thanks for sharing Vicki. It’s an indication of rain (or snow) within 24 hours. Dick Albert aka “Dickie” would always preach that on air.

      Those were the days. 😉

      “Halo around the sun or moon means rain or snow soon.” 🙂

      1. Ironically that only works about just over 50% of the time…

        But it will kind of work this time because there is the chance of some rainfall by tomorrow night.

        The cirrostratus clouds have not been heavy enough to produce a halo here yet but pretty soon it should happen in my area.

  14. Really a perfect day.

    Mild to warm enough for the beach but not too warm for everything else.

  15. EPS: No 80+ at Boston through June 25.
    GEFS: No 80+ at Boston until June 26.
    CFS: No 80+ at Boston through July 12.

    Sprinkled with salt of course, but there is no major heat in sight for a long, long time, or as far out as I can confidently read the pattern.

    Do you remember a few weeks ago when I said CPC was on the wrong track when their 3-4 week outlook had ABOVE normal temps for New England. I stand by that.

    For the first 1/3 of June, Boston is sitting at a temperature departure of -4.1F.

      1. Haha! Don’t blame it all on the volcano. Well, I said the volcanic eruption would have a noticeable impact globally, and it has/is. But no, it’s not all that. It’s the large scale weather pattern. But I kind stop shy at calling the weather “weird” at least in terms of leaning toward unprecedented. It’s the most over-used term in weather-related news, and other things as well. It’s thrown out without full facts, without full knowledge, and oftentimes with cherry-picked information designed to make people click or tune in. I have NEVER subscribed to this unfair method of reporting, and I never will.

        But as far as the summer goes, I gave my outlook previously, and it’s unchanged. 🙂

        OH yeah, remember last year during the heavy pine pollen season there were stories of how they’d all be like this now? Nope. Hardly any this season. I am SO tired of the drama based on something like that. Stupidity in action, to be honest. I wish they’d just stick to the facts. But media is well beyond that now, sadly. By the way, have you noticed how heavy the cottonwood seed is this year? I guess all of the cottonwood seed seasons will be like this now. 😉

  16. Darn it. Only missed the high temp forecast at Logan by 1 degree. Fcst: 76. Actual: 75.

    1. Here it hit 80.2F. Is my thermometer broken is the question? I’m only a couple of miles from Logan.

      1. Well, many inland locations hit 80F-81F. By that, I mean a bit away from the coast, 10-15 miles inland.

        I thought I saw JpDave report 78F at one point at Jamaica Plain.

        I don’t know if that sheds a blight on your location. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  18. Joshua, amazingly I cannot find a Nws sensor on either the common or the gardens on the app SAK gave me. I did find an 81 in Peter’’s a bit south of you so it is likely. That was around 1:00 pm. I think. .

  19. Thanks, Tom and Vicki.

    I may have a broken thermometer. I don’t think Back Bay got over 80F today. I doubt it.

    1. I’m not sure Joshua. Peter’s Park is about a mile from the common as rhe crow flies and it hit 81 according to NWS. My house can easily be several degrees different from a few miles away in the same town.

      https://imgur.com/a/lhrufIh

    2. it was not 80 in the back bay imho.
      I don’t see how. You thermometer could
      have been affected by heated concrete, asphalt and/or bricks near your location. does not mean your sensor is inaccurate, it could be location of said sensor

      1. I finally had to move mine out of the sun as it was continually reading 2-4
        degrees too high when the sun was out. Since moving it to shade, it has been spot on accurate.

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