Monday June 12 2023 Forecast (7:36AM)

49 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

Another week / another upper low. Yes once again our weather for the balance of the coming week will be governed by upper level low pressure. Initially this upper low will be to our west a little longer than the last one, and we’ll be in a southwesterly air flow ahead of it through Wednesday. During this time, two main disturbances will impact our weather, the first tonight into Tuesday in the form of a frontal system parented from surface low pressure passing to our northwest. The warm front will move into and through the region tonight with some showers and possibly a thunderstorm, followed by its cold front early Tuesday with additional showers and a few storms possible, but this front will be in the process of dissipating as it runs out of push, becoming parallel to the air flow and the air mass behind it modifying to very similar to what’s ahead of it. Some clearing will occur later Tuesday as a swath of drier air moves in. The next disturbance rotating around the upper low will bring another shot at showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening, and pending the timing and heating ahead of these, some may be strong to severe. I’ll need to fine-tune that through tomorrow’s updates/comments. Thursday’s a quieter day but can’t rule out a pop up shower as the upper low moves eastward and we’re under its cold pool, and this will be the case Friday as well with a better shot at pop up showers and even a few thunderstorms with the aid of an additional disturbance moving through.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Dew point around or just over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely and a possible thunderstorm late evening on. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point near or just over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm early, then mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers through midday. Clearing with more sun late. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+ at least through midday may drop later. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely later in the day. Any storms can be strong to locally severe. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then breaking clouds but areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

The June 17-18 weekend will still feature upper level low pressure, though it will be slowly exiting and weakening, but there can still be a few pop up showers around each day. A brief break, then the next disturbance ends spring and ushers in summer with a chance of showers later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

A general west to east flow, lack of blocking, but tendency for troughing still to be in place, bringing a couple unsettled weather chances but keeping major heat away.

49 thoughts on “Monday June 12 2023 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I’m good with these temps and dp’s.

    It makes mostly cloudy or cloudy days very easy to take. 🙂

  5. Nice opening line….looks really familiar.

    Tomorrow could be sneaky cool north of the Pike, behind the cold front before it washes out, especially if it stays cloudy all day. May only stay in the low to mid 60s in southern NH/Northern MA.

  6. Joshua, I left a few comments regarding your thermometer at the end of the last blog. 🙂

    1. I just saw them. They make a lot of sense. I just had to move mine. It was in complete shade but sun was hitting the siding several inches from it and either reflecting onto it or radiating heat off of it.

      That said. It was 81 on a NWS sensor just about a mile from Joshua. I posted that link last night.

      1. Something isn’t right. No way it was 81 near Joshua. Don’t know what is wrong, but something isn’t right.

        1. As I look at the map from yesterday, I see a lot of 81-83 all around Boston/Cambridge/Somerville/Quincy yesterday. The only exceptions are a 76 at the sensor right at the waterfront, 75 at Logan, and 79 along I-93 in South Boston.

          Northeastern University was 82, and that’s about as close to Back Bay as you can get.

          1. I did as well, SAK. I just picked the closest I could find to Joshua As an example. When SAK and I are in agreement, it behooves one to take notice

            Sorry….I haven’t heard the word behooves in years but did hear it often from my mom. It would start something like…..”It behooves you, young lady…..”.

            Still don’t know the exact meaning tho.

  7. Thanks TK
    So far SPC has us in the general thunderstorm outlook for Wednesday. Will see if this changes.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    JP Dave, thanks for your info on the thermometer. There may indeed have been a “sun bias.”

  9. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/can/GEOCOLOR/20231631210_GOES16-ABI-can-GEOCOLOR-4500×2250.jpg

    The next area, I believe, of major concern in Canada is far western Ontario Province.

    Specifically, north-northwest of the western tip of Lake Superior or north of Duluth, MN.

    Those little fingers of what looks like clouds is smoke from newly developed forest fires.

    And the outlook for this area is HOT !!!! under the trof-ridge-trof setup expected to eventually develop.

  11. Could we be on the western edge of the Bermuda high and the trough just too our west ? Would that mean high dew points and a real tropical feel to the air this summer?

    1. The pattern you describe should increase the chances of higher humidity in southern New England.

      We’ll have to see if we get any of that set-up.

  12. After a very wet spring, it became very dry in late May in the Netherlands. With a stationary block in place – for almost 3 weeks now – the Netherlands hasn’t seen a drop of rain in 19 days. In the past few days it’s also gotten very warm. While the UK has also been dry and warm, thunderstorms have been popping up, especially in Western and Northern parts, as you can see in the UK forcast (see link below). Notice the wind direction and how little it changes over time, especially over the Netherlands and the east of England. It’s been this way for a long period of time. Normally many of the arrows would show a westerly or southwesterly, but the Atlantic lows aren’t pushing on through at all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Wryv_16aXY

      1. And not a typical one for the UK. What we’re getting this week – well last week, too – is more typical of a UK forecast in June.

    1. yuck!

      My equipment is reading 66, but IF I calculate using
      temp and wet bulb, I get: 65.55
      Hmm, wonder if this is correct???

      On Meso West, I see dew points mostly 63-64 across ALL of SNE.

  17. The higher dew points are a reminder that summer is here. I just ran 6 miles and felt the humidity. Not unbearable, to be sure.

  18. I think the most amazing thing that has happened recently in sports is that the Oakland A’s have won 5 straight. Yes, the hitherto miserable Oakland A’s are now 17 and 50. Still bad, but even the worst teams in the league can string together wins in baseball.

    1. The possums that live in the visitor broadcast booth probably make more noise than the fans. 😉

      1. Even the possums avoid that place. After my trip to Citi Field last weekend, I have now been to 18 MLB Stadiums, and (Insert Corporate Name of the Month Here) Coliseum in Oakland is very clearly in the bottom 5. If you’re curious about the other 4, 2 of them no longer exist, and one is still there, but vacant.

        The Non-so-Fantastic 5, in no particular order:

        (Insert Corporate Name of the Month Here) Coliseum, Oakland, CA

        Stade Olympique, Montreal, QUE

        Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL

        Veterans Stadium, Philadelphia, PA

        Shea Stadium, Flushing, NY (if ever there was an appropriate town name, this is it)

          1. I would nominate the Astrodome from 35 years ago to make a “bottom six”. Don’t even know where to start about the issues there…

                1. And I like Citizens Bank Park; some of the successor parks are excellent. I’ve been to Shea, but not Citi — how was it?

    1. Sort of similar at Logan. If I’m reading their ob correctly, they got to 81F and now its 79F at 2pm.

  20. I put the A/C on.

    We’re about to do some work on the house.

    New roof and insulation.

    I’m looking forward to it because our house reacts so quickly to any warmups and cool downs. It’s very energy inefficient.

    I’m hoping the house will better resist the warmth and coolness once the work is completed.

    1. Not for a while. But there are signs of a more “seasonable” pattern in the day 11-15 time frame.

Comments are closed.