Tuesday June 13 2023 Forecast (7:17AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

The larger scale pattern features continued domination by upper level low pressure over our region, with one moving from the Great Lakes across New England through early Thursday, exiting, and being replaced by a follow-up Friday into the start of the weekend. For our region this means continued unsettled weather. It doesn’t rain all the time, but there are daily opportunities for showers, some more substantial than others. While it doesn’t look it when you start the day today, this is an improvement day, but it will be somewhat subtle. We start our with a few lingering sprinkles but a thick overcast with areas of fog and drizzle, but a dry slot will be working in as surface low pressure lifts away from the region. This will help begin a clearing process, so the clouds will thin and break, but complete clearing is likely be prevented by a southeast to east air flow at the surface. Some partial clearing but patchy fog redevelopment is expected tonight, and clouds will become dominant again Wednesday with the approach of the next surface disturbance around the upper low. This one carries dynamics to produce more potent showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with a low but present risk of severe thunderstorms occurring, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on the evolution of the weather tomorrow. This system exits by early Thursday as the upper low starts to pull out, so while the cold air lingering aloft still allows for a shower chance, the activity will be quite limited due to a drying process both at low and mid levels of the atmosphere. This doesn’t last long, as both the next upper and surface lows approach on Friday with an increased chance of showers and possible thunderstorms once again. The forecast for Saturday is a little lower confidence due to the difficulty in trying to forecast upper low departure to begin with, and the inconsistency of guidance designed to help the effort. Right now, I feel the upper low and a surface low will be close enough for a damp early Saturday followed by drying, but any solar heating helping scattered showers to pop up, so in summation, an unsettled day at best.

TODAY: Cloudy with a few showers and areas of drizzle and fog to start, then breaking clouds at times with only a slight chance of a brief shower. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+ at least through midday may drop later. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH,.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely later in the day. Any storms can be strong to locally severe. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then breaking clouds but areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with areas of drizzle and fog, then breaking clouds and partial sun but also a chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

Upper level low pressure still close enough for a shower chance June 18. Evolution of pattern after that looks like a temporary Rex block with high pressure across eastern Canada into the New England region with a drying trend while low pressure gets pushed to the south – but must keep an eye on it as it won’t be far away. Despite drying, any warm up will be modest.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Not a high confidence forecast but signs of a rather quick Rex block break down and switch to a zonal flow pattern with a weak mean trough in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Resultant weather is a couple shower/t-storm chances and no major heat for the first days of summer.

43 thoughts on “Tuesday June 13 2023 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  6. Thanks TK.

    As long as I don’t have to turn up the heat anymore in my house until October at the earliest. Finally I can keep the windows open.

    I get the impression though that we will be under the influence of some type of “upper low” for much of this upcoming summer. Is that the “trough” part of the pattern?

  7. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/can/GEOCOLOR/20231641200_GOES16-ABI-can-GEOCOLOR-4500×2250.jpg

    Seeing the comments about the lack of heat.

    I think we need to consider the impact all this smoke may have on temperature the rest of the summer.

    The hemisphere has to be seeing a very large reduction of solar insolation reaching the ground.

    I wonder if the models get the measurement of smoke in the atmosphere input into them ????????

    Save for the Maritimes and the Canadian west coast, Canada largely has a dry climate. I’m thinking, in hindsight, it was even drier than average. All the jet energy came into California, south of Canada’s latitude. Based on what we’ve seen so far, I think the severity of this particular fire season lasts the rest of the summer, so, I suspect this quantity of smoke continues forward.

    1. Yes I noticed that. I guess they don’t want to jump the gun too far ahead. I would suspect that in tomorrow morning’s update
      parts of the region will be under a marginal or perhaps even
      a slight risk. We shall see.

    2. Timing is late for eastern areas. I suspect they’ll word it up for western areas next update.

      Cannot rule out severe storms further east though. Just need a little bit more short-range guidance to kind of help pinpoint the chance and the timing.

      1. In general, tougher to get severe weather in Eastern sections.
        Not impossible, but clearly not as often as central and western sections. I highly doubt we get any severe weather in Eastern sections. In any case, it will be interesting to see what the SPC discussion looks like moving forward.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Oakland A’s keep on rolling: 6 straight. They beat the Rays, which is something the Red Sox have very rarely done for quite some time.

    1. It always seems to me in a baseball season the really bad teams going on a bit of run where they play good baseball for close to a week. The A’s are doing that right now. They keep this up they could pass the Royals and not have the worst record in all of baseball. The Royals are 18-48 the A’s are 18-50.

  12. I am thinking the SPC will put western areas of SNE in the marginal risk on Wednesday when they update around 1:30 this afternoon.

  13. JJ, your comment is so true. It’s what I’ve always liked about baseball compared to other sports. Even really bad teams can go on a run at some point during the season. The A’s have a couple of really good young players. Overall, however, it’s still a bad team. But, don’t be surprised if they’re back in the mix soon – say, in two years – as the team has had a long history (many decades) of good scouting and roster building.

    2. He played Kelly’s Dad on Chicago Fire.
      He’s been in quite a number of movies and shows.
      Always liked him. So sad.

          1. I just rewatched from the start …binge watched that is. It was fun seeing how everything progressed without weeks and months in between

  15. It feels like Tropical humidity here. Sweat is rolling off of me!

    My equipmentt says dp is 68. it is 66 at Norwood, but of course Logan is only 61. 🙂

  19. Ok Philip, now that we’re 2 weeks into June with the pattern we have, you can definitely compare it to June of 2009 as similar.

    2009 was a little cooler-to-date, but not that much different, than 2023.

    Both months through this date had around 1 inch of rain so far (using Boston, but obviously variable due to the convective nature of a lot of the precipitation), but an above normal amount of days with rain in them, and obviously above average cloud cover.

    Does it go on? For the next several days, yes. Beyond? We’ll see.

      1. No problem! It doesn’t mean that it goes on this way through July necessarily. It probably won’t. I already see some things that remind me of May’s pattern trying to come back next week, then potentially zonal flow after that but still lack of heat, at least in a sustained sense. If that happens, it will deviate from 2009’s pattern rather quickly. We’ll see how it goes.

  20. No sustained heat means a little more money in our wallets which is never a bad thing.

    1. This could be the most comfortable summer we’ve seen around here in quite awhile. A precious few brief bouts of sustained heat shouldn’t deter from overall a wonderful summer ahead. We’ll see.

    2. Same thing over the winter. Mild. Saved a lot on heating bills. From that point of view, not bad at all.

Comments are closed.