Wednesday June 14 2023 Forecast (7:39AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

Two low pressure systems will impact our weather over the next 5 days. The first brings a shower and thunderstorm threat later today / tonight, but the greatest threat of severe storms is going to occur to our west and northwest, away from the influence of a stabilizing southerly wind off the ocean water to the south, and where there is a better combo of dynamics / heating. However, can’t rule out some stronger storms further east especially this evening before things quiet down later tonight. The first low gets to our east Thursday but enough cold air lingers aloft that a few pop up showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm can occur, favoring southern and central to eastern MA, later in the afternoon or early evening. Friday’s weather will hold another shower and thunderstorm chance in the afternoon and evening as another low pressure area moves toward the area from the west. This low likely stacks with its upper level partner and temporarily slows down enough to mess up at least part of the weekend. Indications are for a mainly cloudy and damp Saturday with some rainfall around – maybe not all day but enough to alter many outdoor plans, then some improvement but still the chance of diurnal shower development on Sunday. Temperatures will be a little closer to normal today through Friday before cooling back to below normal during the coming weekend.

TODAY: Low overcast and areas of fog east central and northeastern MA to southeastern NH early otherwise a sun/cloud mix with clouds taking over late. Late-day and evening showers and thunderstorms probable in the region – any storms can be strong to locally severe, favoring western areas. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH. Winds can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely evening – any thunderstorms potentially severe. Partly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH. Winds can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and a possible thunderstorm, favoring southern NH and eastern MA mid afternoon on. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 62-69. Wind E-NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 67-74. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

Current leaning for next week is a Rex block pattern with high pressure close enough for mainly dry weather, keeping unsettled weather to our south. This is a drier pattern with no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

Wet weather early in the period introduces a more zonal pattern with more seasonable temperatures and a couple shower/thunderstorm chances.

59 thoughts on “Wednesday June 14 2023 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  1. So rare that I’m up before the blog is :). Thanks for the forecast! Glad we brought raincoats.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I didn’t think there would be a real severe threat in Eastern Sections. We shall see if any storms survive the trek East.

  11. Thanks TK
    You usually don’t see a severe weather outbreak that far south during this time of year. Looking at the outlook from the SPC for the south it looks like something you would see in April or May.

  13. It’s been a stretch of 3 weeks (!) in which Atlantic lows haven’t been able to do their normal thing: Traverse across Ireland, the UK, and on over the low countries and beyond. That could change a bit by later this week, although as you can see from Carol Kirkwood’s forecast from yesterday the Atlantic low doesn’t appear to push much farther than Ireland and the west of the UK. It’s been a remarkably long dry stretch, one I did see a few times while I lived in Europe. But it is unusual. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0Eirhe7hBI

    1. Indeed.

      Probably many places in the entire northern hemisphere have seen similarly consistent weather for a while now.

      1. Yes.

        I look at the Northwestern Europe weather maps all of the time, and while it isn’t unprecedented it’s certainly unusual to be stuck in a pattern like this for so long. In the Netherlands – of all places – not a drop of rain for more than 3 weeks.

        The good news is that soil there is very different – much more arable than New England soil – and doesn’t dry out to the degree that ours does.

        1. I enjoy your weather discussions for part of the world.

          For whatever reason, after the US, I seem to watch Canada and in summer, I focus on Hudson Bay and the arctic.

          I like to watch the ice melt.

          I’m glad the soils in the Netherlands are allowing the land to much better weather this dry spell.

  16. Couple points from NWS Boston for this afternoon thunderstorm threat

    Current thinking is that the risk is
    greatest the further SW you get, but we will need to closely
    watch the south coast as this is an area where there is roughly
    30-40 kts of bulk shear

    There are lesser values
    of CAPE further north and the shear is a bit more marginal, so
    this could be a limiting factor for western MA into eastern MA.
    Nonetheless will still need to monitor things closely

    Think that the latest HRRR SCRAM and SREF Craven Brooks Sig Svr
    greater than 10k highlights the highest risk area well. There
    is a bit of backing across the CT River Valley and 0-1 SRH
    greater than 100 m2/s2 this afternoon, so while low we cannot
    completely rule out a tornado. Have also added a hail mention
    in the latest update as there is a few hundred J/kg of CAPE
    within the hail growth region

  18. Tom, admittedly I tend towards looking at Northwestern Europe weather maps because I lived there for so long. My daughter says it’s because I want to move back there. She may be right.

    Of course once there, I would naturally pivot to looking at weather maps of New England. It’s the life of a rudderless rafter, drifting back and forth across the Atlantic.

    1. I love “rudderless rafter!”

      It reminds me of one of my high school social studies teachers, Michael Angelo (really). He stated:
      “You are all rudderless ships adrift on the sea of life. I am the great helmsman bringing you safely to port.”

    1. More south to north with a bit of east movement. ???

      I have a steak I have to cook. I rarely have anything that has to be on the grill, but I cannot get a steak to cook inside without filling the area with smoke and setting off all smoke detectors

      Why did I say all of That? Because it may be the best proof that we will finally get a bit storm here

  20. Just looked at the radar. JJ, maybe one of the cells on the south of that line will clip you!!!!

  21. SClarke, your social studies teacher had quite the name: Michael Angelo. I’m just imagining his parents, Mr. and Mrs. Angelo thinking, “what shall we name our baby boy?” In unison, they said “Michael!”

    Machia is a first name in Pakistan and I believe Uganda, too. Imagine if your last name is Velli and you name your child Machia.

  24. Wind picked up here a while ago.

    Is that filmy layer in the sky smoke? I have not been paying attention lately to where smoke is

  26. Just some flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder here. Nothing big.
    Next day to watch for thunderstorms Saturday. From NWS Boston

    Main concern is potential for severe weather Saturday – right now
    it`s a low risk but something to monitor in coming days. Ensembles
    show decent probabilities of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE along with
    fairly steep lapse rates (given presence of cold pool aloft
    associated with cutoff low) but shear is relatively weak. However,
    in these situations we can often see higher CAPE values compensate
    for lack of deep shear. Colorado State Machine Learning probs also
    have low probabilities centered over southern New England.

  30. The thinking today was this was not going to be a big severe weather day but some places could get a locally severe thunderstorm. Holyoke was unfortunately an area that got hit.
    The bigger severe weather day is down south today and you usually don’t see a severe weather outbreak that far south this time of year.

    1. That one slightly west of due south of Boston has some color returns that make me wonder if it has small hail with it ….

  32. Nothing being warned on. The one storm warned on that I saw today was the one in Holyoke a couple hours ago.

  33. A lot of severe weather reports in the south today where that severe weather outbreak is happening. There will certainly be more reports from down there before the day is over.

  34. Nice storms rolling through Pepperell. Some big boomers with it and strong wind ahead of the storm.

  39. Quite a broken to almost now, solid line that ended up going through eastern Mass.

    Storms look really good on infrared satellite.

  40. Whatever some storms were in other area, I can tell you that it was a total WIMPORAMA as it came through here.

    1. Sorry JpDave !

      It was a decent thunderstorm here.

      And wow, the storms on Cape Cod right now look the strongest of all.

      We can hear the thunder from them.

  41. I was impressed with the dynamics overcoming the marine influence on the South Coast – especially Cape Cod – with today’s event.

    I went chasing and intercepted 5 storms: (1) Chelmsford, (2) Chelmsford/Billerica, (3) Bedford/Burlington, (4) Woburn, (5) Medford. The last of them was the most impressive with a fairly prolific cloud to ground lightning display, many of them under 2 miles, several of them under 1 mile, and a nice departing elevated lightning display.

    The first intercept had the most wind.
    There was some impressive street flooding with the later cells, especially the final one down along Route 28 in Medford.

  42. Clearly picked the wrong weekend to play golf and celebrate Father’s Day and our anniversary in Sunday River. What a miserable forecast.

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