Friday June 16 2023 Forecast (7:16AM)

68 Comments

COMMENTARY

We’ll have a little taste of summer today, and does it come as a surprise? Probably to many, and I’ll tell you why. The tendency in media these days, and as a result the tendency in many people, is to focus on the dramatic or the negative, or a combination of the two. Yes, our pattern has been anything but ideal, in terms of the majority of folk’s likings, for the first half of June. The first 15 days in Boston for example, are averaging about 2 1/2 degrees to the cooler side of normal, and we’ve had more than our share of clouds and wet weather, and oh no, here it comes again! A lousy weekend! But hold on a moment. I do realize that not every person will be able to be outside all day today to enjoy what is a really nice summer day, but hey, the calendar may technically still say spring, but today’s going to be a really nice summer day. But it’s almost like nobody said it was even going to happen, or noticed that some of our media did actually try to point it out. Example: A local station’s meteorologist did talk about today’s nice weather for most of the day until clouds took over late, and high temps in the lower 80s for many areas and even middle 80s for some. But the anchors, in coming off listening to the side, if they were listening at all, immediately began to lament about how bad our weekend was going to be. “A washout, cold miserable weekend!” No, no, actually it’s not going to be a washed out cold and miserable weekend. Saturday is going to be a wet and cool days, yes. That part is true. Sunday shows improvement in the forecast – no, not warm and sunny, but not nearly as wet as Saturday, and even some potential for sun to break out. But they didn’t say that, even though their colleague a few feet away had. They just focused on the worst of it, and dramatized it, and the viewer, if not keen to the now very common practice, came away with the feeling that the next 3 days are simply going to suck… Something needs to change in media – but I’m not holding my breath for it.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

Well I already gave away the general forecast for the next 3 days in my commentary, but let’s take a look at how that’s going to happen before we move on. We’re in a weak and small high pressure ridge between departed low pressure to our east northeast and approaching low pressure from the west. And that is enough to provide us with a fairly nice day. Although our sunshine will be filtered once again by a plume of high-altitude smoke as the Canadian fire season rolls on. At least this time it won’t be surface smoke and will just give the sky a hazy, more classic “summer’s of old” look. And while today won’t be hot by the usual standards, it may feel that way with the high June sun angle and the temperatures cracking 80 for most areas, with a hint of higher humidity creeping back in. Dew points will rise over 60 along the coast and toward 60 over inland locations as the day goes on. Cumulus clouds will pop up in the daytime heating and a few isolated showers/downpours can occur with these by afternoon. We finally lose they sun later in the day to a thicker canopy of clouds, and the increased moisture, with the help of a surface boundary migrating northward, can kick off a scattered to broken band of showers, a few of which can be heavy, this evening before dark, especially west of Boston. So while most of the day is rain-free, if you do have evening plans, keep this in mind. And then things change more drastically overnight through Saturday as an upper lever low pressure area moves into the region. This system is actually the combination of a trough from the west and the remains of an old upper low hanging out sneakily over southeastern Canada. They join and send a weak surface low into cyclonic loop mode, just to our south and east, and in the place to deliver cool and wet weather to us for Saturday with frequent showers, some of which can be on the heavier side as well. Temperatures as a result of the heavy cloud cover and east to northeast wind will be below normal as the saturated air comes off the chilly ocean. By Sunday, both the upper and surface lows will begin an eastward departure, and while the day starts damp and somewhat showery, we see improvement and rain-free conditions take over, with some potential cloud breaks, maybe enough for intervals of sun to develop before day’s end. However, I can’t rule out an additional pop up shower in the afternoon, but with indications this would most likely be in the higher terrain of southwestern NH and central MA with the help of a little more solar heating combined with lingering cold air above and a little lifting of air by the hills. Don’t cancel any outdoor plans you have for Sunday afternoon based on this, however. So there’s your weekend – certainly not the best, and not the worst either, but less than ideal, for sure. Onto next week, and early in the week we will see evidence of a shift in the pattern, albeit subtly at first. High pressure ridging that has spent a lot of time in central Canada will expand eastward into east central Canada and strengthen somewhat, and this will push low pressure that wants to linger just to our south and east a little further away. We will still have some lingering cold air aloft Monday and with a weak disturbance moving through we can still see a few showers pop up, but this is likely to be very limited. A general onshore flow will keep the coast coolest that day. A little more influence from high pressure will mean a dry day for Tuesday, but with a general easterly flow for the region the coastal areas will still be noticeably cooler than interior locations.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun, giving way to clouds later on in the day. An isolated shower possible by afternoon. Scattered showers favoring areas west of Boston by early evening. Highs 77-84 except cooler in coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes through mid afternoon, then SE 5-15 MPH by evening.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers increasing in frequency and coverage. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Patchy fog forming overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Frequent showers with areas of drizzle and fog. Isolated heavier showers with the potential for a few thunderstorms embedded. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH higher gusts especially near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, with areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy morning with scattered showers and areas of fog favoring eastern coastal locations. Breaking clouds afternoon with a slight chance of a pop up shower over interior higher elevations. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62 Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

We welcome summer not only with the solstice, which occurs at 10:57 a.m. on June 21, as well as a more noticeable pattern shift, with high pressure in eastern Canada and the Northeast keeping upper level low pressure off to the southwest. This results in generally fair and more seasonable weather heading from the middle to latter portion of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

A more zonal (west to east) flow pattern takes over. A frontal boundary may be hanging about in the region early in the last week of the month, bringing an increased shower and thunderstorm chance, before high pressure gains control with dry weather. Temperatures closer to seasonable levels, but still not seeing any signs of major heat for the region at this point.

68 thoughts on “Friday June 16 2023 Forecast (7:16AM)”

  1. Thanks! Some of my friends are a little sad that the traditional Saturday evening dinner outside in front of the library (done only for the 25th and 50th reunions) will likely have to be moved to the rain location. What can you do? In other trivia, the beginning and the end of your forecast interests me, but not the middle 😉

  2. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    This 3-day weekend celebrates Juneteenth on Monday!

    Murphy’s Law will return with a vengeance after a brief hiatus on Memorial Day weekend. No wonder the tv news anchors are going nuts. 😉

  6. Already sitting at 75 here in JP. Going to be fairly warm, unless we pop a decent sea breeze. 🙂

    1. We’re sitting in the shade on our deck and it feels like the heart of summer.

      Plenty warm and can feel some moisture in the air.

      I was just saying to my wife that since we got out Tuesday, the weather has been awesome !

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Younger daughter is taking credit for this weekends weather. She made the comment in May that Mother’s Day tends to be rainy and Father’s Day tends to be lovely. She thought the two should be switched. 🙄

    1. Ha !

      Even if they are not, can she have a thought about our very cold, snowy, long winters. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. She’d be in your camp. Both girls would be. Son and oldest granddaughter are the only ones who shared mom’s/nana’s love of weather…..

  9. Interesting comments. I honestly have not heard media anything about weather. But to play the devils advocate. I’m closing in on 72 (for the third time I might add) and cannot recall a time when the media didn’t hype. As a very young child I knew republicans read the Boston herald because it focused on all good in its camp and bad in the other camp and dems read the globe because it was really good at stressing why the right was always wrong. And no one who wanted truth on either side read the “rag called the record American” 🙂 yep that is a quote I heard too many times to count

    So if people are buying the dribble the press has sold since Adams and Jefferson……is the media at fault of the Individuals accepting its bias? 😉

  10. And on a fun note, SSK and Tom and Sue and all of our south shore family have a big, furry, four legged black bear for company. It seems to be in Pembroke now

    1. Yes. Fun tracking the bear based on observed sightings. I hope it will be ok, with no interactions with humans.

      1. I like that the Marshfield PD advised not to share exact location. Our PD did the same. But the one in Lexington gave the exact location which is not a good idea.

    1. We had a moose in Natick back in the early 90s. I wonder if they are moving east because we are now over building out this way.

      Son has run into at least one camping. We stopped back in the 90s also to call authorities for a baby black bear injured on the side of the road above Bretton Woods NH.

  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023061612&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023061612&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023061612&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Don’t know where exactly, but under a slowly translating upper low with storms possible training, I think this setup could provide a small localized area with some flash flooding.

      1. Sorry. Those were two different thoughts and should have been tel different paragraphs or even comments

    1. Well, I said that we had to test the GFS in summer mode still because the failed upgrade was in November.

      Early returns say it’s a fail for the warm season too.

      They
      Need
      To
      Fix
      That
      Freaking
      Model

      It’s embarrassing.

  16. ONLY 72 at the airport! Reason ESE sea breeze at 18 mph!!

    Made it up to 81 here and now has dropped back to 77.

    1. Yes. We finished this past Tuesday at 11am.

      I know you told us your last day and I apologize that I have forgotten.

      Hopefully it has happened or is not much after Juneteenth.

      1. We have a half-day, exam day on Tuesday and the students have an early release on Wednesday. Staff out on the Solstice at 2:30.

        Next year, we have our five “weather days” built in BEFORE Juneteenth. So, with no emergency days, out last day will be June 13.

        Happy for you, Tom! Woo-Hoo!!!!
        Enjoy a restful, fun and well-deserved summer break!!! 🙂

        1. Thank you Captain and congrats on another year in what I know is a distinguished career. Hoping Wed at 2:30 gets here quickly !!

  18. So far, I’ve not had a single run this summer in which I kind of pass out at the end (low bp). I’m grateful thus far. I know that heat is coming. But for now it’s been very manageable.

  19. If it’s the same bear that’s been spotted in Needham, Arlington, and Newton, it’s certainly getting around. That’s not a small area.

    I assume the bear isn’t bar-hopping.

    There will be plenty of food and water sources in any of these locales, both natural in the form of vegetation (eg, berries) and garbage from humans (with leftover food).

    The fact that bears are possibly returning to Eastern Massachusetts isn’t all that surprising. They were here before, quite a number of them in the Blue Hills, for example.

    2. He was at Wilson Nursery in Lexington too

      I loaned my oldest one of my ring cameras. A number of her board feeders were pulled down several nights ago. One out front and two others on her deck. Could have been a raccoon or the bear that was spotted about a mile from her home

    1. Destined for the fishies. The non-met weather pages are already all over that thing and trying to find reasons for an East Coast hurricane landfall. Nope.

  23. For those interested, the UK forecast. See link below. A very sloooow moving area of low pressure finally approaching Ireland and the Britain from the west. The problem with the system’s sluggishness is that Northern Ireland in particular is having long stretches of downpours. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-D0rRaSoGnw

    Keep in mind, usually Atlantic lows move along quite rapidly, especially in fall and winter, but other seasons, too. Not this summer, at least not yet. The Netherlands stays dry until at least Sunday, which makes it 25 days of not a drop of rain in most parts of the country.

    1. That’s always a fabulous formation. This particular one is shot in 5x time lapse so it’s “fast motion”, which makes the motion more dramatic. Very beautiful.

  26. Just benign showers and remote risk of isolated thunder now.
    Short range guidance once again did a good job.

  27. One can find a lot of interesting things on the internet, like a demo of “Roadrunner” by the Modern Lovers. It’s from Sept 1971, See link below. It was recorded at 331 Newbury Street, then home to Intermedia Sound (later Syncro Sound, which The Cars purchased in 1981). Now, perhaps fittingly, it’s home to a cannabis dispensary.

    Hugely influential Jonathan Richman – from Natick – founded the Modern Lovers in 1970. He was joined by Jerry Harrison (later Talking Heads) and David Robinson (later The Cars), among others. The Modern Lovers’ sound was influenced by the late 60s Velvet Underground (Lou Reed) and in turn the band influenced both Punk and New Wave. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqGH_CdJNKM

  28. Quick question: How much rain do you expect in the Natick area this weekend? Do you have an idea where the heaviest bands
    will set up? At least it looks like Dad’s day will be better weather.

    Thanks.

  29. I just realized something. This is probably the only 3-day weekend of the year with 2 “holidays” (Father’s Day and Juneteenth).

    1. I never thought of that. Fun post. I think both news years and MLK are national holidays. Way too late for me to think of all 12 months though.

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