Sunday June 18 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

We’ve made it through the worst of June. And despite the dramatic flare of the majority of the population to make it seem like we’ve been in the “worst pattern ever” since the beginning of time, it was hardly that. It was an unsettled and cool 2-week pattern with a few very nice days sprinkled in there. You survived it. Next time, people should try doing so without whining – it’s less stressful. Ok, snark aside, we are going to see improvement going forward, but it’s slow at first. Today is the day the low pressure system that got around to soaking Saturday for most of the region starts to pull away, and dry air starts to work in on its back side. But it’ll be unstable enough that we still have to watch for a few light showers to develop on its western flank at departure. But despite this, some breaks of sun can develop and while it doesn’t turn into a warm day, it’ll be milder than Saturday. As we head into the beginning of the week, the pattern will enter a Rex block (similar to the pattern for the end of May) but it’s going to be transient, i.e. short-lived. This pattern features high pressure sinking from southern Canada into the US Northeast while a low pressure trough is held at bay in the Mid Atlantic, giving them a long stretch of unsettled and cool weather into next week, but preventing it from moving up and continuing a similar pattern for our area. During this pattern, we’ll have weak high pressure moving in, but centered north enough that a light easterly air flow will dominate Monday and Tuesday. Just enough instability will be around that an isolated shower can pop up mainly over the interior higher elevations Monday afternoon, and with the help of a weak disturbance passing through at upper levels on Tuesday, a few afternoon showers can occur anywhere in the region. By Wednesday, high pressure will be right overhead, and a sunnier day will help usher in summer 2023 with the solstice occurring at 10:57 a.m.. Coastal areas will end up a little cooler with an afternoon sea breeze as a result of a weak wind field under the high pressure area, but expect a very pleasant day. On Thursday, the summer switch will be flicked on, just in time for the first full day of the new season, with lots of sun and a warmer west wind.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, but breaks of sun becoming more likely with time. Chance of quick passing showers. Highs 66-73. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds dominant but breaks large enough to see some stars too. Lows 52-59. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partial sun. A couple pop up showers southwestern NH and central MA in the afternoon, favoring the higher terrain locations. Highs 67-74, coolest at the coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

Dry with warm sunshine for June 23 with high pressure over and south of the region and a westerly air flow. The June 24-25 weekend turns more humid with fair weather to start and potential shower/storms to end it. Unsettled weather with a frontal boundary in the vicinity later in the period, along with a cooling trend. This is not a return to the blocking / unsettled pattern we had, but part of a transition from the temporary Rex blog to a zonal flow pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

A zonal flow pattern is expected with seasonable temperatures averaging from typical variability. A weak mean trough will oscillate from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes to the interior Northeast and this does provide a couple shower/thunderstorm opportunities with passing disturbances, but the overall pattern looks dry, not wet, heading toward early July.

76 thoughts on “Sunday June 18 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  2. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    Happy Fathers Day to all! 🙂

    TK – What is the difference between a Rex block and the traditional Omega block? Is there a similar result in our pattern?

    1. Omega is pretty much self-explanatory in that the low / high / low configuration forms the shape of the Greek letter. That is also a West – East setup.

      A Rex block is high pressure north / low pressure south.

      The effect on the weather in any location is relative to where the location is with respect to the position of high pressure or low pressure.

      We were in a Rex block in May where we were underneath high pressure much of the time. This contributed to the sunniest may on record as it was responsible for a very long stretch of fabulous weather late in the month.

      Omega blocks are really no different. If you’re stuck under the trough you are unsettled and if you are stuck under the ridge you are fair.

  8. Good morning. Thank you TK and a very happy Father’s Day to our dads.

    Thank you also, Joshua and Tom, for your birthday wishes ❤️

    We have not seen SSK in a while but in addition to wishing him a happy Father’s Day, also happy birthday to Mrs SSK!

    2. Hey Vicki happy birthday I have not been on a Tom but Tk & I talk all the time as he is a tremendous help forecasting my landscaping jobs . I hope you have a nice birthday Vicki

        1. Vicki are you renting this year ?? Sadly due to my wife’s illness we canceled the condo a couple of weeks ago , long standing tradition that is being broken , our son is still going up for the week thankfully. After a second hospitalization after Memorial Day weekend things seem to be trending much , much better & I am back to work at the Hospital.

          1. We are not. I do wish we were. I’m so sorry to hear you will not being heading to the beach. I know how upsetting it is to break that special tradition. I’m even more sorry to hear your wife was hospitalized a second time. A very difficult time for you all. I pray all continues to improve.

    1. If I’m not mistaken that position usually means trouble for the east coast of the U.S. Hope it stays away from every landmass.

  16. Thank you TK!

    Happy Father’s Day to all!
    And Happy Birthday wishes to our friend Vicki!

  18. 0.77 inch at Logan. How much for you JPD?

    Any upcoming Drought Monitor map should be crystal clear. In other words “colorless”.

    1. There are still some areas of abnormally dry in central Massachusetts and parts of the South Coast and a couple of patches of moderate drought in far northern New England. I don’t think much will change on the next update.

          1. Plus I had to move the whole equipment package into the shade for accurate temperature readings.
            Thus, it wouldn’t collect proper rainfall anyway, so I didn’t bother trying to fix it. 🙂

  20. The passing showers are across eastern MA now. Nothing steady.
    If it rains for more than a few minutes it’s because you got more than 1 shower. Some of them are nearly merged. 🙂

    This activity departs later.

      1. Later today, as written above. “Quick passing showers”. That’s what we have.

    1. No, this is not a carbon copy of yesterday.

      It rained for hours yesterday, and it was cooler. It will rain for under an hour in any one location today, and not be as cool.
      Yesterday, no sun in the Boston area (some very far to the W & SW). Today, there will be intervals of sun.
      Vastly different weather.

  24. Short range guidance nailed the wrap-around showers today.
    HRRR, RRSF, 3km NAM all pretty good.

    1. Just saw that. Near Mefford. Son and DIL stopped by for a birthday visit on deck. We had about three raindrops thankfully. But looks threatening on and off

  28. Just kidding with you TK as you sometimes do with me. Still, those brief downpours were somewhat of a surprise. When I see forecasts of “isolated” showers, I never know whether there will be a direct “hit” or absolutely nothing at all. 🙂

    1. In the particular case the showers are lined up parallel to the wind flow. That’s how one area can get 3 or 4 showers while a couple miles either side of that sees nothing.

      I was just talking to someone who was out fishing and is now experiencing his 5th rain shower of the day………….

  29. Cool times in the East (and elsewhere)!

    Coolest spring on the East Coast since 1998 (25 years).
    Coolest June (to-date) in the entire Lower 48 since 2009. (Take note, Philip!)

    Significant late season snowfall in Tetons of Wyoming the last several days as much of the West has also been cool (for months on end now).

    1. Thanks TK. Speaking of snow, didn’t Mt. Washington break its all time snow record for the month of June?

      Was it 8” or thereabouts?

        1. And that, my friend, would have been when my dad was skiing both Tuckerman and the headwall. It was seven years later in 1939 when Tony Matt as well as my dad and others were participating in the Inferno. Matt headed straight down and said he did it intentionally. My dad and others standing beside him knew he caught an edge. It wasn’t for years that he admitted to just that.

    2. These are good stats. I reminder that June of 98 and it was a chilly one when I was living on coastal Long Island – thanks TK

      1. Looks the same. Love when nature tries to fool us. Kids were watching to and were fascinated.

    1. Haha. Thank you. As a teen when the Beatles appeared on the scene, I thought sharing a birthday with Sir Paul was the cats meow.

  33. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Birthday, my friend, Vicki!

    I hope your day was very special!

    Hope all dads, step-dads and gramps out there had a nice day as well!

    My three guys and I played our annual Fathers Day whiffleball game. Although my fastball has slowed throughout the years, I still recorded several strikeouts! ACL still intact!

    Middleborough girls softball won the D3 state championship today. Taunton High softball won its third straight D1 title and the Taunton High baseball won back-to-back D1 championships today as well. Quite a dynasty here in the Silver City.

    Clearing now after a quick shower.

    One more Yankee out for a Red Sox sweep!

    ‘Night, y’all!

    1. Thank you, Captain. It was a special day. I hope yours was also. Happy Father’s Day to you !!

  34. My Weather Channel Storm app is predicting more rain next weekend for the South Coast – please tell me that is wrong – sadly whatever model they defer to tends to be correct 5-7 days out. I just moved here so rain on 3 of 4 weekends would be a rough start

    1. The app just pulls from whatever medium range model they have it set to pull from, and a couple of them have some showers around next weekend (later Saturday & Sunday).

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