Wednesday June 21 2023 Forecast (7:43AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

In case you forgot, summer officially arrives today – solstice 10:57 a.m.! Early this morning a blanket of stratus clouds covers the rising sun from the Merrimack Valley northward, save for a few breaks in the overcast, while a veil of high clouds filters it somewhat along the South Coast, and some stratus patches have also made their way into MA East Coast locations, with a few more patches of stratus in northwestern RI and northeastern CT too. The patchy stratus will dissipate as the high-angle sun rises into the sky, and the more extensive stratus deck to the north will initially be fed by the eastern MA stratus which can increase for a while into mid morning, but otherwise will begin break up before undergoing a transformation into diurnal cumulus clouds as morning becomes afternoon. The onshore flow should eventually prevent these from forming over the coastal plain. Some of the cumulus may grow enough to produce a few showers over the interior higher elevations from southwestern NH through central MA and perhaps as far southeast as northwestern RI, but these will quickly dissipate with the setting sun. With high pressure sliding into the waters to our east, a light east to southeast air flow will allow additional patches of stratus to form tonight as the aforementioned shield of high clouds to the south starts a northward trend. That cloud area, associated with low pressure and a warm front to our south, will thicken as the day goes along Thursday, but right now I expect any of the showers associated with the warm front to struggle against dry air and hold off until late evening or overnight / early hours of Friday. That front will continue a slow northward push and Friday, once prognosticated by model guidance to be a summery day with sunshine and highs of 90+ will actually end up as a mainly cloudy day in the 70s with rain showers. Our weekend is so-so as it stands now. I think the warm front does lift northward through the region by Saturday, with both days at least having a shot of 80+ in all but immediate coastal areas, especially the South Coast, where a southerly air flow will keep those locations sub-80 for high temps. Higher humidity will be noticeable, as we haven’t had much of it so far. Also, it’ll be unsettled, not in the way it was last weekend with upper level and surface low pressure plaguing the region, but this time just from pop up showers and possible thunderstorms, which will become more numerous on Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west…

TODAY: Sun/cloud variety. A pop up shower possible southwestern NH, central MA, and northwestern RI this afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible in southern areas especially South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

Upper level low pressure lifts from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, and we’ll be in a southerly air flow with a slow-moving frontal boundary the first part of next week with periodic showers/thunderstorms. This system loses grip with improving weather by later in the week. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

There’s a lot of uncertainty in this forecast for the early days of July. Oftentimes it can be really hard to see a persistent pattern just vanish, and I don’t think we’ll see that, but I also don’t think it’ll be as unsettled as previously. I see a few hints that a Rex-type block may return. We have to watch eastern Canada for high pressure, which if strong enough, can trend the region drier but also prevent significant heat. If such a high is too far north, unsettled weather can sneak in as there will still be a tendency for upper level troughing in the Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic, and if, though less likely, the high ended up pushing further south, the door could open up for hotter weather. I see that final “option” as least likely though. Will monitor and give this outlook a better shot in the coming days. For now, I’d lean toward a drier overall pattern with temperatures below to near normal.

49 thoughts on “Wednesday June 21 2023 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Yes indeed re: this coming Friday.

    I remember posting last Friday’s GFS which projected mid-upper 90s region wide for this coming Friday.

  3. Thanks, TK.

    As a friend of mine once said on June 21st (he loves long days and hates winter darkness) “it’s all downhill from here.”

  6. Simon Knott is an old-fashioned English chap who roams around Norfolk and Suffolk counties in England (and other places, too) looking for medieval and renaissance churches, mostly in tiny hamlets. I enjoy traveling across lost parts of England vicariously by way of his Twitter feed. Today, he writes about the solstice and depictions of the sun in stained glass windows. https://twitter.com/last_of_england/status/1671440254232940544

    1. In addition to above avg SST in this region, the other thing I feel is not there this year is the Sahara Dust layer.

      1. While there haven’t been any really thick outbreaks like last year, there has been plenty of Saharan Dust this spring/summer thus far.

  11. Having a tough time so far finding good mountain climbing days this season. Trail reports are consistently muddy and buggy and when you reach the top, the Canadian wildfires are not helping things. Hope to climb Mount Cardigan this weekend, but need TK to change the weather!

    1. Ugh. So sorry.

      We had to even postpone our town fireworks for this Monday because the weather has not allowed the field to be hayed

  12. Now full sunshine here at the coast. Air is cool, but the solstice sun is very warm. Beautiful day !

  13. We hiked Mt Watatic for the Solstice. It is a beautiful day for it. My wife is a bumblebee fanatic and spotted four different native species visiting blooms on the summit including one species that is “declining.”

    https://ibb.co/Mg22SdJ

  15. I stand by thinking it’s a beautiful day, but I will report that it’s ….

    89F in Goose Bay, NEWFOUNDLAND !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      2. Given the blocky nature of the pattern and how long it’s been this way, I can’t say I’m all that surprised. There can be some pretty remarkable “upside down” patterns in these conditions especially when they happen later vs. earlier, like this one.

      3. They missed their daily record of 92 by 2 degrees.

        The all time record high temp for Goose Bay for June is 97F set on June 25 1989.

        Their all time record high is 100F even on July 4 1944.

        Goose Bay, despite being pretty far east, is only at 52N. And they are also pretty far inland from the ocean despite the nearby lake/bay. The wind was not blowing off of that today.

        Upper 80s to lower 90s up there in June/July is not an everyday thing but it’s also not highly unusual, especially for a late spring / early summer block in which they are under high pressure.

        1. It will be more than warm and uncomfortable enough down here by this weekend and beyond. The schools are out just in time.

          1. Relatively warm. We have no real heat in sight, at all.

            Woburn schools don’t finish until June 29. The reason for that is the teacher’s strike earlier this year.

              1. Unfortunate, but they had to do it.
                People seem in pretty good spirits up this way right now. 🙂

                1. I know we talked about it. Darned if I can remember what was said but seem to recall it was needed

          1. Yup! Just posting some data some people have perspective. I’ve already seen one person on social media say “There’s no way they have been that hot before!” .. Umm, WRONG!

            Science always.

  16. Thanks, TK!

    My last day of school on the first day of Summer!

    Celebrating the end of my 40th year in the classroom!!! 🙂

    1. CONGRATULATIONS!
      On behalf of all, we appreciate the dedication to making a better future for so many!

      1. Thank you, TK!

        Although I am tired and in need of a summer break, I still truly love working with the kids and feel fulfilled reflecting on this past year and my 40-year career.

    2. So very happy for you, Captain. We are blessed to have amazing teachers as part of our WHW family. I hope you have a spectacular summer.

      1. Thanks, Vicki!!!I will be sitting out on the deck soon, listening to the Sox game on the “transistor”, watching the sun set and enjoying a light, adult beverage! 🙂

        Dare I say it, the weather feels a little autumn-like this evening!

        1. Transistor. Now that took me back with a smile. I’ve been on deck for a few hours. Book and dinner. It is a tad chilly.

          Enjoy!!!!

        2. Forgot. Hummers have stopped buzzing me so now visit when I’m out. We saw two baby orioles at the hummer feeder and the oranges I have for them. Looked like a juvenile male and female.

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