Friday June 23 2023 Forecast (7:16AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

Once again the general outlook going through the weekend into early next week remains the same as previously prognosticated. One upper level low pressure area to our west, meandering and eventually wandering eastward while weakening through the weekend, will be overtaken by a second, stronger and quicker-moving one heading eastward through the early to middle portion of next week, while a weak upper ridge sits off the Atlantic Coast. This combination is warmer relative to recent weather, but not hot. However it is also a more humid and unsettled pattern. We are introduced to the higher humidity during the course of the day today as a warm front lifts northward across the region. This front will only be accompanied by limited shower activity. Even the clouds associated with it have been struggling to maintain themselves while pushing northward, as you may have noticed by yesterday turning out sunnier than predicted just hours earlier – not that anyone complained about that given our recent weather. Today, there is a blanket of stratus clouds across east central and southeastern MA into RI and even some coastal fog to start the day, and some of this will try to break up as the morning goes on, but much of the cloud deck will remain in place, and then expand, but become a more organized, broken south-to-north moving deck of low clouds as we increase the moisture similarly across the region today. Meanwhile, the mid and higher level clouds associated with the warm front have struggled to move north against drier air but will eventually win that battle in a more substantial way, although not completely enough so that breaks in both the higher and lower clouds can’t allow breaks of sun even into later today. If there are any heavier showers in the isolated assortment, they will likely occur over the region just east of the CT Valley. Tonight into Saturday morning, a disturbance adds to the shower chance while the humidity continues to bump up, and these will be scattered, along with some downpours which carry a slight chance of thunder into late morning. After that, the tendency will be for slightly more stable air to arrive from the South Coast through eastern MA and southeastern NH, while areas to the west can see a few diurnal showers and thunderstorms into Saturday afternoon before activity diminishes for a quiet but humid Saturday evening – the first night that feels like a more classic summer night. Another disturbance approaching from the west on Sunday will help ignite showers and thunderstorms along with the help of solar heating and higher humidity during Sunday’s midday through early evening hours. Similar weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, but showers and storms may end up more numerous on Tuesday with a slow-moving cold front moving into the region from the west in response to a stronger push from upper level low pressure starting to move eastward with a bit more momentum. We’ll continue our mild to warm (not hot) humid pattern through the beginning of the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 71-78, coolest South Coast. Dew point passing 60. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming SE this morning-midday eventually shifting to S increasing to 5-15 MPH by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms mainly RI and eastern MA through mid morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT during the afternoon hours. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers, mainly overnight. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming isolated. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Upper level low pressure will still be moving eastward across the region at the beginning of the period with showers and thunderstorms most likely. After that, a gradual transition to a more westerly / zonal flow will take place as the upper low lifts out and weakens and a combination of westerly flow sinking southward through eastern Canada and weak high pressure off the East Coast pushes the tendency for a trough further west and south into the Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley region by the start of the new month. This would be a drier trend for our region, but without major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Not high confidence, but slightly more than yesterday, that we are in a less active pattern with minimal shower and thunderstorm chances and no major heat. Continued re-evaluation of this pattern evolution will take place with daily updates.

67 thoughts on “Friday June 23 2023 Forecast (7:16AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Hopefully that westerly flow later next week/weekend brings less humid air.

    Is Cindy a “watcher” for the east coast?

    1. 🙂 🙂

      Lost 2 sec yesterday, 6 today and 10 tomorrow at Boston’s latitude. Going to be a while.

      Latest sunset around June 26/27.

  9. Out and about.

    I’d say we’ve graduated from the Labrador current, chill feel.

    Not at the uncomfortable, humid feel yet.

    1. Only 67 here and 64 at the airport.
      Very much like yesterday, except DP is higher.

      My equipment says 63
      Logan says 61

      Mine calculated with temp and wet bulb = 62

      Close enough for home equipment.

      Bottom line it is considerably MORE HUMID today than yesterday, but temperatures ARE NOT much different at all.
      At least NOT so far. 🙂

  10. I saw TK’s afternoon post yesterday re: GFS.

    So, I’m going to stop looking at it for a while.

    Start with the Euro. And of course, the HRRR and Nams and the CFS weeklies and it’s individual run and watch the ensembles a bit more.

    I had gotten away from the euro some because it seemed to have been struggling mightily and maybe it still is, but I guess the upgraded GFS is performing worse comparatively.

  12. I could feel the uptick in humidity compared to yesterday. This will be our first stretch of mugginess this warm weather season.

  14. Like JJ, I can feel the humidity also. To the point I closed my windows ….something I do not like to do when temp is in mid 70s.

    1. Late yesterday I actually opened my windows to let the last of the cool air in. They will remain open for the rest of the summer. 🙂

      This is the latest I believe that I have opened my windows for the summer. We had a very strange spring, to say the least.

  15. I have not had to put on my AC so far this warm weather season. Usually I have had to run it. No complaints with a little more money in my wallet.

    1. I have not either. In fact, I have NOT even installed any of them yet. I WONDER if this will be the first SUmmer ever where I didn’t need to install an air conditioner.

      Even if we get a 95 degree day, I am NOT about to install for
      one stinken day. If it looks like prolonged HHH, then of course I will install.

      1. We are. Upstairs. I cringe every time it comes on. I suppose it is the same reason we use so little heat in winter.

  18. The Weather Channel says(don’t quote me) but remember reading something about it this morning re: the 2 tropical storms in the Atlantic and how unusual that one has formed on the heels on the other. Back in what I believe was 1985 there was Hurricane (or tropical storm Henri) and then the bigger hurricane, Hurricane Gloria formed. They were close together. Is it that unusual what is going on in the tropics now?

    1. It is not unusual to have side-by-side storms during the season, but we haven’t seen it this early since 1968, but that doesn’t mean diddly about the rest of the season. It’s incidental. It’s probably happened before we were “watching”. Media has this tendency to make everything sound unusual or unprecedented and it is getting in the way of the things that actually should be touted as such.

  19. It is unusual to have two storms Bret and Cindy form in the main development region in June. This is more typical for August and September.

        1. There was a reason I wrote “mostly cloudy” instead of “overcast”. They are not the same thing. 🙂

          I don’t think that many people pay attention to my actual forecast above. 🙂

  21. Sunnier today than I expected. Yesterday idem ditto. The day before idem ditto. This month has NOT been like, say, July 2021 which was exceptionally rainy, or June 1982, which was very gloomy (I was told by my mother back then, I was living in Europe at the time). It hasn’t been especially sunny this month, to be sure, but we’ve had ample sun despite the upper level lows.

    On my run I noticed two things besides the sun peaking through quite a bit: 1. It’s more humid than yesterday; 2. Marine influence still very much a factor at the coast (in Boston more than in Cambridge).

  22. As you know, I often post climate stats for Lowell. The reason is that doing some research on my own, I basically created the climate database for there about 20 years ago. As TK can attest to, there really wasn’t much compiled climate data there, which didn’t seem right for a school with a meteorology program. So, when it reached 90 on March 31, 1998, I was curious if this was the earliest 90-degree reading ever there (it was). Since the data wasn’t really there, I had to do some research, and now, we have daily data back to 1889 (snowfall data back to 1929). I still maintain this database. We, my and TK’s old professor reached out to me as he had a request for some extremes/records from the UML media relations folks for an article, so naturally he asked if I wanted to put it together. I figured I’d share some of the data with all of you, as it is somewhat interesting. I’ll put it in the next post.

  23. All-time record high: 103, set 4 times – 7/5/1911, 8/25/1948, 8/2/1975, 7/21/1977
    All-time record low: -29 on 2/16/1943
    All-time record high minimum temperature: 79 on 8/2/1975
    All-time record low maximum temperature: -4 on 12/29/1933

    In 133 years of records, we’ve had a high of 100 or higher exactly just 35 times, including 5 times in 1911 (all in July), and 5 times in 1952 (1 in June, 4 in July)
    In 133 years of records, we’ve had a low of 0 or colder 717 times, including 29 times during the winter of 1917-18, and 28 times during the winter of 1922-23
    So, you are 20 times more likely to have a sub-zero low than a triple digit high in any calendar year

    In an average year, Lowell will reach 90 14 times. The most in a year is 46 times during 1955, while 1932 is the only year in which Lowell failed to reach 90 at all. On average, we’ll hit 90 for the 1st time in a year on July 5. The earliest is 3/31/1998, and the latest, excluding 1932, is 9/15/1915.
    Longest heat wave (consecutive days with a high of 90 or higher): 15, 8/1-15/1988

    Average date of the 1st 32-degree reading of the fall: October 16. Earliest date is 9/21/1962 and 9/21/1973. Latest date is 11/16/1979
    Average date of the last 32-degree reading of the spring: April 23. Earliest date is 3/28/2010. Latest date is 5/26/1972

    Most rain in a calendar day: 6.97″ on 9/10/1954, when Hurricane Carol went by
    Most rain in a 2-day span: 8.18″, October 5-6, 1962
    Most consecutive days with measurable rainfall: 14, June 22- July 5, 2008

    Most snow from a single storm: 31.3″, January 26-28, 2015
    Most snow in a calendar day: 29.7″, January 27, 2015
    Most consecutive days without any rainfall: 25, June 14 – July 8, 1975
    In 94 years of snowfall data, we’ve had a foot or more from a single storm 78 times
    In 94 years of snowfall data, we’ve had 2 feet or more from a single storm 3 times; 1/26-28/2015 (31.3″), 2/6-7/1978 (30.0″), 2/8-9/2013 (24.0″)
    Average date for the first flakes to fall: November 12. Earliest date is 10/8/2011. Latest date is 12/16/1973
    Average date for the first measurable snow: November 25. Earliest date is 10/10/1979. Latest date is 1/13/1999

    2. Excellent information, SAK, and well presented. I will save also.

      I recall many of the events/dates

      1. I am wondering what any folks sitting outside and enjoying their lunch thought. Better yet, what anyone on a boat thought

  27. To get us in the mood for our nation’s birthday – she’s about to turn 246 – a short clip of the ending of Tchaikovksy’s 1812 Overture. See below. Tchaikovsky may not have liked what he wrote. He was a very self-critical composer. But, boy could he evoke a momentous event in history. While it had nothing to do with the U.S., I do understand the choice Arthur Fiedler made in 1974. I jog over the Fiedler bridge and past his statue every day. He was a Boston icon, an eccentric forward-thinking person. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlbCakDfXfE

    The only thing that troubles me about the climactic end of the 1812 Overture is the shelling of Cambridge, Massachusetts. The cannons seem intent on obliterating MIT buildings, among other things.

    1. I love that part of the event down there. 🙂

      Did you know that the introductory melody to Dan Fogelberg’s “Same Old Lang Syne” is the one and only 1812 Overture’s more recognizable part? 🙂

  30. TK, I did not know that the introductory melody to Dan Fogelberg’s “Same Old Lang Syne” is the one and only 1812 Overture’s more recognizable part. Interesting. I should have known that. I know Dan F’s music pretty well.

    1. The song is also autobiographical. Mac’s sister was a huge Dan F fan…t9 the point she flew to darn near every one of his concerts and when there attended the pre concert get togethers where he would often make an appearance.

      She later did the same with Josh Groban

      1. 1302 East Frye Avenue in the Abington Hill section of Peoria Illinois, December 24 1975.

        Dan ran into his former high school girlfriend, Jill Andersen (her marriage name was now Greulich) at “Convenience Food Mart”. You can see the current version of the store, “Short Stop Food Mart”, by looking up the address on Google Maps and going to street view.

        Pretty much everything described in the song took place as stated. They had both gone out to grab some last minute things for family celebrations that they were back in town to attend. The six pack of beer was purchased and consumed over a 2 hour period while they talked “in her car”. (I’d have had to pee really bad if I drank 3 cans of beer that quickly hahaha). It was later revealed by both parties that artistic license was applied in calling her eyes blue instead of green, and saying her husband was an architect in stead of a phys ed teacher. This may have been to at least throw off anybody who may have thought they knew who it was, or just because it sounded better in the song’s lyrics. Take your pick. 🙂

        “She would have liked to say she loved her man, but she didn’t like to lie.” That line may have been quite true since Jill & her husband had divorced by the time the song came out in 1980.

        And a very important and weather-related note. Dan confirmed that as he turned to make his way back home, the snow that was falling actually did change to rain. Wonder if that was in the forecast. 😉

        1. Excellent. I remember Jen telling us about a good part of that but have forgotten some. I believe Jill G. made some comments shortly after Dan’s passing.

          He surely is a tremendous talent lost far too soon.

          1. She did indeed. She didn’t want to come forward before that because at the time Dan was married and she didn’t want to threaten that, but she did talk about it later.

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