Sunday June 25 2023 Forecast (7:43AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

No real changes to yesterday’s discussion, so here’s a shorter summary of our weather as we head through the next 5 days. It will still be governed by upper level low pressure as the most dominant feature, with today being the warmest day. humidity being pretty high throughout the period, and a daily chance of showers and some thunderstorms. How it breaks down for shower and storm activity is today’s activity being most likely from early to late afternoon favoring areas along and north of I-90, isolated to scattered, Monday’s favoring showers over thunderstorms with more of an easterly air flow, and activity more likely west of the I-95 belt, Tuesday and Wednesday seeing the most shower/storm activity as the upper level low moves more into/over the region from the west, and Thursday seeing the start of a drying trend with still scattered showers/storms popping up. Tracking/refining of the day-to-day short-term weather will take place…

TODAY: Low clouds and fog abundant in the South Coast region, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with early-day patchy fog elsewhere and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas along and north of I-90. Highs 78-85 except 71-78 South Coast, also may chill back in East Coast sections of MA / NH. Dew point 65-72. Wind S to variable at times up to 10 MPH, including sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Periodic showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, favoring the region west of the I-95 belt. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog. Isolated showers evening. Scattered to numerous showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds with lingering showers possible evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

One upper low exits to the east early in the period with still a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms 30 but an overall drying trend into the weekend. Next disturbance from the west tries to move in around July 2-3 but may run against a little more high pressure and be held at bay with a more isolated shower/storm chance and a trend to dry for the holiday. Still no significant or sustained heat in sight.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

General idea is for troughing in the eastern Midwest / Great Lakes / interior Northeast, with weak high pressure off the Atlantic Coast much of the time. This pattern features episodes of showers and thunderstorms but less active than the current pattern and still no major episodes of heat with more of a seasonable temperature pattern.

64 thoughts on “Sunday June 25 2023 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    So far sleeping not too bad considering the high humidity. I didn’t quite need to get out my fan but I think I will later today. If there’s a decent breeze throughout the house, it’s fairly comfortable. Would still prefer that nice dry air we had up until yesterday of course.

    That intense heat in Texas has to come eastward eventually. Even in 2009, it came in even for just a relatively brief stay. If I recall it was during August then left by Labor Day.

    I had only my second DD iced coffee of the season. I’ll pretty much continue now through September. The fruity iced drinks this year look good, at least by their photos above the counters. 🙂

    1. Just having the high heat down there does not mean it “has” to come eastward. That ridge is probably going to be pushed further south and even west somewhat with time.

      If intense or high heat exists in one part of the country that does not mean it automatically exits the country via New England.

  2. One of the tv morning mets showed the overall flow as an omega block over the U.S. but far south.

    1. Roughly true, but not in the classic sense, and over the next 8 to 15 days that pattern is going to deamplify and essentially reverse, but not “cleanly”.

  6. Thank you, TK. The possible showers and t storms moved a bit north for today. We did get the bday party yesterday in the time slot you advised. Thank you. ♥️

    3. We attended a celebration in Douglas that started at 4:00, and that one worked out perfectly as well!

      1. Awesome.

        We are on the Douglas line. And Uxbridge line and Whitinsville line. Hard to believe we actually live in Sutton 🙂

  7. Thanks, TK.

    The air was very sultry yesterday. Thick, as they say. Had my first bad summer day, as I tried to exercise and bike in it. Feeling the effects today.

    1. It just so happens that a couple of hours ago one of the residents in the dorm I work at had to give up her run due to the “heat”. She came back exhausted.

  8. TK – You mentioned above that the pattern isn’t going to break down “cleanly”. Does that mean we may have to “pay a price” if you will?

    Severe storms? Potential tropical activity?

    1. Nope. That’s not what I mean.

      It’s just going to break down in stages, and not quickly.

  13. Good afternoon and thank you TK.

    Fishing this morning, reasonably productive.
    Saw several red-wing blackbirds, first I have seen in a long time.
    That was at the Stop River in Medfield.

    Heavy shower popped up “just” to the North of my area.
    Watching radar to see what develops.

    btw. 85 here with dp 73!

    75 with DP 70 at airport with SEA BREEZE! What else is new?

  14. At Rexhame Beach.

    A slowly rising tide working its way in.

    No seabreeze here, SSW wind.

    Thinking of feeling the water with my feet with my Canadian DNA wife and daughter are already fully in. Hey, I got in down in St Thomas 🙂

    1. Wow, I’ll say. The Canadian government needs to get a much better handle on preventing these wildfires in the first place. I bet many of them are arson/ carelessness like down here. I’m just not buying into the lightning aspect all that much, even though I do concede it as a factor as well.

      Thanks Joshua. It’s very sad to see a potentially beautiful blue sky totally ruined in gray muck. 🙁

  17. Most activity appears to be sliding just N& W of my area.
    We shall see later. 🙂 my guess it stays dry here.

  18. I noticed lately that the local tv stations first thing in the morning show Hampton Beach at sunrise. Lately it’s always at least partly sunny there while Boston still socked in clouds. I get jealous. 😉

  19. Don’t want to bore you all with the UK forecast (see link below). Do let me know. Going forward, I certainly don’t have to post it. In any case, the forecast is a much more typical summer forecast, as a relatively strong Atlantic low finally gets to push past Ireland by Wednesday and into parts of Great Britain. Still patchy rain showers across the Eastern parts of the country, except the far northeast. But, no matter what, the stubborn block is gone. If I had to venture a guess I don’t think it’ll come back this summer. Doesn’t mean terrible weather, by any stretch of the imagination. Just more typical variable weather across the UK. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmtAKCVcHUA

    1. No problem Joshua. Post these anytime you like. It’s interesting to see how weather works in other countries. The young tv mets seem just as “boring” as here in the U.S. 🙂

      I will always prefer F over C. I’m glad that we never adopted Celsius but they tried back in the 70s. England always drives the “wrong way”. I never could figure that out. So glad we won the Revolutionary War. Whew! 😉

  22. Marshfield’s 86F, Hull is 85F, could Logan get a brief S or SW wind just to see what they’d get to ??

    # useless ob

  23. Thundering out but the sun is out too here in Sudbury. We were in Concord awhile ago and you could see the dark clouds to the south. We had some sprinkles here – wonder if it will rain. Sky is quite pretty – lots of dark clouds but lots of bright spots with some blue sky.

  24. It is absolutely pouring here in Sudbury now and I think there was a bit of hail, too. The sun has been out most off the time. Nice breeze there. Raining with the sun out – rainshine! 🙂

  25. Like your posts, Philip, and thank you for your endorsement of my posting links to the British forecasts.

    However, I have to politely disagree on a few of things you said:

    1. I kind of like the laid-back style of the British TV mets. It’s clearly not as geared towards getting eyeballs and more ad revenue, as BBC is a genuine public broadcaster and as a result there’s much less of an emphasis on ratings and such. I do find Carol Kirkwood an interesting and funny TV met. She’s also quite beautiful, not that this should matter in terms of met skills.
    2. Celsius is THE predominant temperature scale used worldwide. While Fahrenheit has some limited usefulness for meteorologists, Celsius is far more logical, if you will, for the general public as there is actual meaning attached to 0C and 100C, among other things.
    3. Yes, Brits drive on the `wrong’ side of the road, but so do the Irish, Indians, South Africans, Australians and Japanese, among others. Certainly in the minority worldwide, but it isn’t that unusual.

    1. 1. Agree with you Joshua. British mets are awesome and far from boring. I love listening to them. 🙂

      2. Agree with you again. We’re one of the ONLY countries on F. If we switched to C, people would get used to it more quickly than they realize. And you can always convert back over to F for yourself if it’s that big a deal. I have the conversions memorized from doing international weather that was in C for everyone and F for the US readers. 😉

      3. Important note. There is no “wrong side of the road” unless you’re on the side that you’re not supposed to be driving on. 😉 In those countries, left is right and right is wrong. 😉

  26. I was on Anthony Beach in Dartmouth today and the fog bank was lurking off shore for a good chunk of afternoon until about 4pm. Winds were variable and it was even feeling hot at times . Then a quick wind shift onshore and the low clouds/fog came rolling in. I have always been curious about what causes such a quick shift – this happened at same time my Mets imploded to the Phillies in the 8th inning by not Not hitting just one batter but two to give up the tying and go ahead runs back to back

    1. Ouch! The wind shift can be caused by a multitude of things, but today’s wind shifts were either caused by convective activity somewhere in the region, or the generation, maturation, and collapse of sea breeze wind cells. Sometimes an outflow boundary from a shower or t-storm not too far away can result in a wind shift as well.

    1. That is correct. An MCS and outflow boundary very visible there. That’s a set-up for really strong wind.

    1. An hour and a half later and it’s still pouring in the same general areas.

      I found 2 Obs with about 2.5 inches of rain over the last couple hrs. Grey ME NWS have hoisted a flood advisory and now flash flood warning in a small area.

      2. A familiar area to WxWatcher? I seem to think he attended Plymouth State? And I’m really stretching it here but seem to recall a river running close to the college.

        Remember, I’m old and it is midnight; so all of what I just said could be very wrong

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