Monday June 26 2023 Forecast (7:36AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

This “work-week” through Friday is also the final 5 days of June, and the theme of the weather will be generally the same throughout as upper level low pressure will gradually drift eastward across the Northeast and New England, all the while undergoing a very slow weakening process while disturbances rotate around it, providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at various times. Getting a little more detailed where I can, we start today with extensive stratus and areas of fog. Ironically one of the areas with breaks of sun is the outer portion of Cape Cod, and while the South Coast and Cape will be in and out of low clouds and fog today and much of the week, they will also have “nicer” intervals. The stratus deck will break up across much of the region for at least partial sunshine today, but any sun will help fuel showers and thunderstorms, and today’s activity is most likely to occur during the afternoon over eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH, while areas to the east are less likely to see them, at least until tonight. That’s when one of the aforementioned disturbances will swing into and across the region, keeping a shower and thunderstorm chance going through the night and into the early hours of Tuesday. I think if one day is to see the least amount of sun regionwide during this 5-day period, it will be Tuesday as we deal with a return of low clouds to start the day and above that an extensive canopy of mid to high level cloudiness associated with the remains of a Midwestern MCS (mesoscale convective system – aka a sizeable cluster of thunderstorms). Additional showers/storms can pop up in our area at any time regardless as another disturbance enters the region, courtesy our upper level low. Wednesday’s idea is more of a sun/cloud mix evolving as a slightly stronger southerly air flow tends to help the cloudiness line up with the wind in bands, but some of these can still evolve into bands of showers and thunderstorms. In this case you can get bands of showers staying over the same locations for longer periods of time as they line up with the wind flow, which will be southerly both at the surface and aloft. This set-up can lead to “training” or multiple shower and/or thunderstorm cells moving over the same region, which increases the chance of flooding, so we’ll have to watch for that. This activity should subside at night, but it may take its time doing so – will have to re-evaluate this based on monitoring short-range guidance leading up to it and then the radar that day and evening. By Thursday, the weakening upper low will be crossing overhead, and that day will feature a fair-weather start but pop up showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon and evening. These tend to cluster and then drive themselves via outflow boundaries when you have the upper low right overhead and no real strong steering wind, and then the activity diminishes with the lowering / setting sun. Also a higher hail potential can exist Thursday with the cold pool right atop the region. I’m optimistic that this low gets east of the region by Friday with a drier overall outlook, but still enough cyclonic flow and cold air aloft that we cannot rule out some pop up showers and storms, just with more isolated coverage and probably with a movement more to the southeast, in contrast to the more northward-moving showers/storms the first half of the week and the chaotic movement of any convection on Thursday. So you see, even within a pattern governed by the same system over several days, the details of certain things can change. There will be a lot to monitor as we go through these final June days.

TODAY: Extensive low clouds start the day, along with areas of fog especially South Coast. A sun/cloud mix follows but clouds may hang longer South Coast. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe, are most likely in eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH, with only isolated activity east of there. Highs 70-77 immediate coast, 77-84 elsewhere but warmest interior valleys. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH but can be variable, strong/gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Areas of fog, likely most dense in coastal areas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70 Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH, can be variable/gusty around any showers/storms.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Another but likely weaker upper low will be around for the July 1-2 weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms both of those days. Exit upper low and enter weak high pressure with less shower/storm chance, better weather, more seasonable but no major heat July 3-5. Moderate confidence on that forecast trend with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

We should head to the 1/3 of the way through July mark with a pattern that features no sustained major heat, and a weaker version of the late June pattern, with the trough a little further west than we’ve seen it, reducing the shower/storm chance somewhat, but still with a few opportunities.

67 thoughts on “Monday June 26 2023 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  2. good morning and thank you TK
    not a drop yesterday here and I bet not a drop today as well. we shall see.
    any severe potential this week? many thanks

    1. For today, it “looks” to me as if the marginal and slight aeeas
      have been moved a little bit more to the EAST. OR is that
      these old and weary eyes playing tricks on me?

  8. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2023062612&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023062612&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2023062612&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Wonder if the back door front offers an opportunity of SE sfc winds somewhere in central New England (hinted on projected sfc map) with southerly or southwest flow above that. Late evening into the night. Little bit of backing of wind with height ????? around any convection.

    2. Pretty POTENT echoes depicted on that HRRR run!
      YIKES! AND pointed Directly at my area!

      Thanks TOM. I will have to monitor that.

      Waiting for the 12Z run of RRFS A to see if it confirms!

  15. Yo TK! time for my approximately once per month time to come out from lurking to say hey and what an outstanding job you do with your discussions and forecasts in a really difficult pattern! I watch TV and half the time I feel like I just watch someone showing me a model run. I come away confused more than helped. Here I don’t have that issue, so thank you!!! And I enjoy reading everyone’s insights and seeing what the few other meteorologists on the page have to say!!!

    THANK YOU again!
    DOH!

    1. We keep missing N&W.
      One show blew up and it was raining less than a mile from me, but DRY none-the-less. 🙂

  20. That storm is north of me and according to radar it is producing hail along with some gusty winds.

  21. Well, yet another miss today. We shall see overnight, especially in the wee hours as per the HRRR. 🙂

  22. The jackpot today, as of now, has been west-southwest of Keene, NH. Specifically in Vermont, just west of the border with NH.

    Rewinding the 6 hr channel 5 interactive radar, they have gotten direct hits 3 times, with the third hit currently ongoing.

      1. Yikes. Son and family were to be camping in chittenden VT right now except they were offered use of a home on an island off the coast of Maine.

    1. There are 2 small cells in your vicinity.

      One a bit northeast and one south-southwest of you.

      Coverage of these small cells seems to be slowly increasing the last 30-60 mins.

      1. Thanks Tom. I am seeing a bit of lightning but cannot hear thunder.

        Lightning tracker tells me lightning is 15 miles away

    1. Quite the video and quite the sky !

      I feel confident in saying it’s pretty cool to watch air rise into a thunderstorm.

      After that, I wouldn’t try to guess what else, if anything, was in the video. 🙂

        1. No 🙂 🙂 🙂

          I’m interested to hear what TK thinks are the things we are seeing in the video with this storm.

          How many times I thought it was a funnel in a video and then to find out, it wasn’t.

  26. I was not surprised to hear that as I was watching that storm earlier and it looked like a hook was developing.

  27. Well, I wonder what the rest of the night will bring …..

    I feel like the warm sector in southern areas has gotten even more tropical this evening.

    There is a stalled boundary not too far to the north of Boston and there’s a disturbance to come through overnight.

  28. Oh my goodness. This thing isn’t here yet and may not ever be over us but the thunder is the kind you hear in movies. And wow on lightning.

    2. It’s the type of thunder where one clap doesn’t stop reverberating when the next begins. And the worst looks to be just west of us

  29. Wicked storm just rolled through here with torrential rains, I just picked up 1.13” in 20 minutes, with quite the light show.

  31. Vicki, Looks like you’ll get the rain very shortly looking at the radar. Large storms at night seem that much more intense. You can tell we are in the warm sector because these storms have done nothing to lower both temp and humidity.

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