Forecast Update – Sunday Morning

135 Comments

9:17AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH.  No changes to previous discussion at this time.

Rainfall amounts for upcoming storm: 1/2 to 2 inches generally across the forecast area.  Slight chance a few isolated locations see 2+ inches. Some places get short-changed and come in under 1 inch in this despite all the hype of widespread 2-4 inch rainfall amounts.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle this morning. Periods of rain during the afternoon. Temperature falling through the 50s to the upper 40s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Low 44-49. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially in coastal areas and higher elevations.

MONDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 46. High 58.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 44. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 60.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 57.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 55.

135 thoughts on “Forecast Update – Sunday Morning”

    1. I did. Left that out initially by accident. 1/2 to 2 inches, slight risk of isolated heavier. Not going 2-4. Not enough time to get it.

        1. You’re welcome. I know I’m still lower than most, but I have to go with the feeling I get with this one. If the storm were going to sit a little longer or do a pivot south of us, we’d be in for it big time, but the left hook into the northern Mid Atlantic and the dry slot flying up from the south about mid storm is going to make it very hard to verify the big amounts. 1-3 inches of the 2-4 inch total would have to fall in a window of just a few hours overnight. It’s mother nature, of course we cannot completely rule it out, but based on previous experience with these kinds of systems I can’t see it this time. Perhaps the weather is about to laugh in my face.

          2. The storm is in and out but as usual I respectably disagree, most of us will receive 1-2 inches isolated heavier amounts just west, have a good day tk and thanks 🙂

  2. No big changes u said that all of Sunday would be no significant rain? And it will be pouring out by early afternoon 🙂

      1. I will be the 1st person to say tk u were right believe me I may even get u a prize but I think timing and amounts r a little off, but as always I respect your knowledge 🙂

      2. This is the only major change from tk’s blog is Sundays forecast , I’m not trying to attack tk by no means, he’s the guy with most of the answers and is very knowledgable and your forecast I do agree with, if anything I would nudge our area up slightly, have a good day tk 🙂

    2. Yes, I did have to up the timing of the rainy periods to this afternoon. That was an adjustment not noted above.

  4. Thank you TK. The odds are not in favor of your forecast sadly. Its exactly what I have been thinking last couple of days (I changed my earlier thoughts) and I’m always wrong. The scariest part is I’ve been trying to read the models and that’s when I changed my mind to lower amounts.

  5. Charlie, I never have a problem with your posts, whether you agree with me, or anyone, or not. =) You state your opinion regularly, and you don’t insult anybody.

    Hope to meet you and many others in the future.

    I’ve met Hadi, Tom, & Scott (people that were on WBZ and came here). Others that read my blog I have already met or known for many years but most of them don’t post often, they just read.

    1. If I may and even if I mayn’t you know by now it won’t stop me 😉 I enjoy your posts too Charlie. I love different views. Keeps me thinking. And Charlie you are always respectful.

  6. that blob off the NC coast is really cool looking. I imagine the seas are whipped up pretty good down there–maybe I’ll check out some of the buoys

  7. wave heights off NC coast averaging 6-10 ft. Not bad. I’m always amazed by the water temps down there. Almost 70 degrees and it’s not even May yet. We have to wait until mid-late summer to get to those temps….in Rhode Island.

    1. But when we went to charleston every April vacation no one but tourists was in water. The residents thout it was too cold. My inlaws condo assoc would open the pool just for us. They thought we were nuts. The only company we had was the resident crocodile

  8. I still feel Boston, Worcester, and Hartford all come in with over 2″ by the time all is said and done. While I could see how the scenario that Tom and TK describe pans out, I just don’t see how anyone except maybe Chatham or Nantucket escape with only a half inch. We have a moisture laden system barreling up the coast, radar returns are impressive, and there is plenty of convection south of us over the ocean that we aren’t seeing on the radar. Latest model guidance also continues to depict 2″+ for most areas except the Cape and Islands. When and where the projected NW turn of the coastal low occurs will affect the total rainfall amounts. We’ll see…total props to TK and Tom if you guys are right!!

    1. I want to be wrong ! 🙂 There are two acres of burnt marshland behind our neighborhood from a brush fire a few days ago.

    1. column is finally starting to saturate. Imagine if this were a winter storm…we’d all be freaking out over how long it’s taking to get here.

      1. Yes, we would be questioning our snowfall predictions. In my area we have been missing out on any possible rain/ shower activity. I think two weeks ago Boston / West and due south received showers while area just east received nothing. Extremely drie here. Transplanted and divided some hostas yesterday and the soil was so dry it was like sand.

      2. Hehe. That’s why I keep saying snow………….:(. I keep thinking how excited we’d all be so am imagining

  10. Vicki, by the way, I was being sarcastic in my comment last night about the 80 mph wind speed observation in Norwood at 10PM. Clearly that didn’t happen….there must have been a computer glitch at the NWS or error with the reporting instrument for an observation like that to come out! It was amusing nonetheless 🙂

    1. Mark we did have two big Bursts of wind here as I said nowhere near 80 but got everyone’s attention.

  11. A storm system that will have everything with us getting the rain and parts of western NY and PA getting several inches of heavy wet snow.

  12. Tom we never had the quick wind and temp drop here this morning. I keep watching. It’s been low 50s since I got up. Still drizzle here – no reading on rain gauge yet – and a bit brighter. Very calm. Calm before the storm??

    Wonder where rainshine is 🙁

    1. Hi Vicki.

      It was about 60F around 6am this morning until about 7:30am, when all of a sudden, a calm breeze turned into a few minutes of steady winds out of the north and that cold, heavy air whooshed in. It was neat !

      Been a nice steady mist here the last hour or two, enough to dampen the pavements. I’ve been watching the pool for the bigger raindrops, which if the radar is accurate, should be arriving shortly.

      1. Hi Tom. I always love when the wind a temp drop welcomes a weather change still just mist here too.

  13. Hi, TK.
    I have been doing the weather on Medford cable access (Medford Cable News).
    Can you email me? We want to do a full show on the weather. I will need a guest.
    Either yrself or someone you know at WBZ perhaps.
    Thanks,
    Harvey

    1. Hi there Harvey!
      I’ve seen your work on MCN. Great job!
      I’ll be in touch via email during the next few days.

  15. The INR Model is working overtime the next 24 hours. It’s still projecting 2.25″ in my location.

  19. my son is rooting for the rain….he’s playing NHL hockey right now on the Wii and is pacing around hoping is L.L. game gets cancelled for the Bruins. He’s been asking me every fifteen minutes to look at the radar and give him an update–I should make him do it!

  21. Today and tommorrow would be the day to do your fire if needed, I can’t believe there were some burning even on borderline fire warning

    1. Charlie I almost choked when I asked fire dept if there could be outside fires and they said yup.

      0.01 here. I sent the boys out to build an ark. Not cause I think well get that much but to burn off energy 🙂

      1. Hahha light to moderate rain here temp has come down to 48 degrees and we’ve gotten 0.08 so far

        2. 🙂 From about eastern Long Island, northward to around Providence, northward to Worcester and points west are going to do very well the next several hours. It’s that eastern third of New England. There’s breaks in the precip, one in particular over the Cape and what looks like breaks over the ocean due south, though there are some intense showers near Martha’s Vineyard. But certainly not continuous, and in looking at the radar, the echoes are now moving due north. I’d think later this evening, they’ll start moving towards the northwest.

  23. The CPC NAO outlook today is interesting. There’s quite a spread, but a majority are projecting positive NAO, by either 1 or 2 standard deviations above neutral in about a week. If that pans out, maybe more east coast warmth ? The long range GFS sends a signal for warmth during the first week of May.

    2. That’s the way I read it. The cooler weather is short lived thank goodness. Rain good, low 50’s and 40’s, bad! Although I’d rather have it now rather than June.

  25. Some heavy areas to the south about to move onto south coast. They look almost like thunderstorms.

  26. Anyone wishing for southern climate may just find that it won’t be long before charleston climate is here. Our past winter was comparable to mid Maryland (or was it Delaware). Close enough.

  27. Moderate rain temp down to 47.4 and .22 of rain, I believe we will be engulfed with rain esp after 6pm

    1. Wow you are gaining on me. I’m up to .09.

      I think this is an ideal rain for drought. Drizzle and soft rain to at least wet ground instead of torrential to all run off. Know a lot will still run off but think it couldn’t happen better if planned

    2. We’re up to 0.25″ now, but it’s only coming down very lightly and I swear the sun could pop out any minute( I don’t think it will but it’s really lightening up). I’ll see what we get overnight, but I’m thinking this might be a bust for most of eastern and even eastern/souther Worcester county. Like I said, we’ll see in the morning. TK’s looking pretty smart right now in my book.

  30. Light rain here .28 here so far and expect meat and potatoes from 6pm-very early am mon where torrential downpours that are increasing to the ssw will cross the area later this evening and tonight, don’t count it out yet, should blossom over area next few hours 🙂

        1. I’ve got moderate rain, at times a light rain at time a heavy rain, Ive received 0.33 so far, Ive seen a report out of s.grafton of almost a half inch, what has other people gotten?

  32. Raining steady in Plymouth and the winds seem to picking up a bit. Taking a ride by the beach to check out the mighty Atlantic in a few minutes. Always need to take that detour when heading out for groceries. 🙂

      1. Well I also have to make sure our beloved Mayflower and Plymouth Pebble, I mean Plymouth Rock, are still in tact. 🙂

            1. I was just sitting on the porch listening. I also love the sound of rain. Glad you checked the waterfront and found it secure :)). I was trying to think of something we should be protecting in framingham but decided we’d be lucky if the town floated away and we started over. I’m on a mission to retire somewhere down your way 🙂

  36. 🙁 this rain is putting me down. school tomorrow,10 page paper due tomorrow and a test tuesday . and did not finish the patio and this rain has stopped th works on the patio until probably wednesday

      1. I have been laughing so hard I couldn’t type a response……..an educators response if I’ve ever heard one

      3. 6 to 10 pages but many have passed 15 so i need to make sure this is a good paper. at least Its a story that i have to make up.

  37. I think the NJ radar is showing the deepening low really well around southernmost NJ. Can see the rotation of the radar echoes, almost a little circular dry air where the low is and the precip is really intensifying around the northern semi-circle of the low.

  38. When does the wind come with this?

    0.17 here. I guess the slowdown I thought I saw starting here at 6:30 wasn’t an hallucination.

  39. I have .21″ here.

    Not sure but this already could be the most my area has received in 6 weeks.

    1. For sure ! I can’t remember the last time it rained in our area……

      Very interesting radar in eastern New England. Very patchy coverage, but heavy showers are around. Getting clobbered by one in eastern Marshfield as I type.

  41. Can here downpours on the roof, temp is 45.5 and 0.43, probably be around an inch by midnight 🙂

  42. Barely misting here now Looks like maybe heavier here in a few hours but short lived to another break? We don’t even have 2 tenths. I am hoping for more – much more It’s sad when I complain about not enough rain

    1. It’s been moderate to sometimes heavy rains off and on but much more on than off, I’ve gotten about a half inch .049 to be exact, as I type I can still here the rain on roof, we need this rain thank god it came, radar is loaded 🙂

      1. I can honestly say we have not once had anything that would even come close to heavy rain. However, that may be about to change. It’s sounding more promising as I type We have 0.19 but its moderate now and hopefully………..

        1. Seriously we’ve been rain steady to heavy for a little while now and up to .52, it’s raining moderately as I type, this is fun 🙂

          1. It’s amazing how different it can be not so far apart. Are you about 30 miles south/slightly SE of me?

  43. Barely 0.25 inches here in Easton. Wind has picked up a bit. Last frame of the radar shows a slight northwestern jog to the precip. Eastern locals that were seeing steady light to moderate rain have now gone to lighter showers as the precip looks like its breaking up a bit. I think they were too quick to cancel the Sox game as there might have just been spotty showers by gametime at 8pm. Prob for the best though, cant lose if they dont play!

  44. 0.92″ here in Coventry, Ct (we’re about 20 miles east of Hartford). Has been raining steadily since about 11:30am. Wind is really picking too and with the temp down to 43 it feels pretty raw out there! I think we’ve got a good 9 hours of this yet to go – hoping we can crack 3″ here.

  46. I think the meat and potatoes of the storm is over the next 6-8 hrs, Theres a plume of heavy rain rotating north just entering RI

  50. weather station has recoreded a gusts of up to 43 mph constant wind is at about 20 to 25 mph with .64 of rain with wind swept rain happening right now

  52. Moderate to heavy rain here temp 45 degrees 0.67 here, alot of places I believe will be around an inch of rain around midnight, I think the places that may get closer to a half inch to inch will be from extreme se mass and cape cod 🙂

  53. The irony is that I’m one of the higher amounts in eastern MA so far at 0.81 inch in Woburn as of 9:20PM. We had a heavy cell go right over us that was probably good for 0.20 inch versus most of the areas around here.

      1. Actually Vicki I thought u would have more than a quarter inch, I’ve got torrential downpours and coming in on 3 quarters of an inch of rain and can actually watch the electronic rain gauge go up like 3 to 4 times per hr .72

        1. We have not had one torrential anything. I’ve been either outside or on porch all day. Husband is just heading out with dog and his comment was it seems to have stopped raining again.

          1. I should add that i don’t even need a rain gauge to know so far it’s been less than expected here

            1. Continuing to rain heavy, 0.79 so far, gusty winds also close to 30 mph I should have an inch of rain around midnight when ill be going to bed, I’m sorry u got nothing, I saw Boston is coming in at just over 3 quarters of an inch so far also, hope u get in on it soon 🙂

  55. Up to 1.25″ in Coventry, CT with wind blown heavy rain. Flood watch upgraded to Flood Advisory across much of CT and Hamden Co, MA for poor drainage area flooding, an additional 1-2″ of rain overnight, and rainfall rates up to 0.5″/hour.

    BB in his latest post still calling for 2-3.5″ most areas except closer to 1 inch or less from parts of lower Plymouth County to Cape Cod.

    Nantucket has only reported 0.02″ so far. LOL. TK, I think your totals maybe too HIGH for down there!

  56. NWS now calling for up to 14-18″ of snow tomorrow for NW PA, and 8-16″ for the Jamestown, NY area. Yikes!

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