Wednesday June 28 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

We received a bit of a break in the region in general yesterday after the pre-dawn rainfall gave way to a largely rain-free day in most areas, save for a few isolated quick-hitting showers. But that has moved along and the upper level low controlling the weather is still to our west, and we’re still in a moist southerly flow ahead of it. We have another batch of showers and embedded thunder moving across mainly eastern MA as I write this, having come up from the South Coast region just a short while ago, and even as this exits, we can still see occasional showers and thunderstorms at any time today – probably the most unsettled overall day of this particular stretch. Activity will diminish during tonight, but can re-fire in isolated to scattered form Thursday as the upper low moves right across the region. I think Thursday’s activity will have less coverage than today’s but any that do occur can still produce heavy rain and even some small hail as well. Friday, the now-weakening upper low will exit to our east with only a very limited chance of a pop up shower or storm in its limited lingering influence. Heading into the weekend, July starts with a fair and summery day Saturday, but the next trough / upper low will already be approaching the region from the west and this will toss an unsettled interruption into a portion of the weekend. Currently, I expect this to be the first half of Sunday when there is the opportunity for showers and thunderstorm, but this system may move along quickly enough to salvage the second half of Sunday. But at day 5, this is not a high-confidence forecast at this point. Check updates…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with showers and embedded thunderstorms, especially eastern areas into mid morning. Sun/cloud mix late morning on but scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible at any time. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interioer lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms until midday. Partly sunny with only isolated showers / thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

While upper level low pressure is nearby, it looks weaker and displaced to the south and west, limiting the shower and thunderstorm chance which will favor interior and southern areas early in the weekend including Independence Day. A more zonal (west to east) flow takes over midweek on with seasonable warmth and a possible shower and thunderstorm a couple times with otherwise mainly fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Zonal pattern with weak westerly flow but a tendency for surface high pressure to be located in eastern Canada. This increases the onshore wind chance and is a factor in keeping major heat at bay. A couple passing disturbances can bring shower and thunderstorm chances, but this pattern still does not look as active as the one we’re in now.

54 thoughts on “Wednesday June 28 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK
    Left windows open all night. I was up at 6 and monitoring radar. shut windows around 7 as rain intensity picked up

    Will open again soon.

    btw, yesterday was the most comfortable of the last 3 or 4 days .

    1. Agree. Yesterday morning was muggy but less so than previous two. And the afternoon and evening were lovely.

  3. Thanks TK.

    The other day I brought out my fan but I haven’t used it nearly as much as I thought I was. The nights have been surprisingly relatively comfortable.

    1. Except for Sunday night. That was absolutely BRUTAL!!!!

      Yesterday was wonderful with a nice breeze blowing through
      the house. 🙂

      1. Upstairs group has yet to have a day without AC. I mostly have Windows and slider open. Odd house

  11. Coming into these last 3 days of June :

    Logan’s temp departure for the month stands at 2.4F below average.

    Logan is on a 4 day stretch of above avg temps. All 4 days have reached btwn 80F and 84F.

    The real cause of the above avg temps the last 4 days have been the low temps, which have been 68F, 71F, 69F, 69F.

    The month, as a whole needs 0.65 in more of rain to reach the June average total. It received 0.42 in btwn 6 and 8 am this morning, so it needs another 0.23 in to reach its monthly avg.

    Data courtesy of Taunton NWS climate page.

      1. Thanks Vicki.

        Not surprised by Cape. I think yesterday and today may help that out.

        Surprised somewhat by the western areas.

        1. I had the same thought. I thought north Adams area had some sort of event. And just west of here caught me off guard also My focus has just been on a couple of other things.

  13. For an inland location, Worcester :

    Worcester’s temp departure stands at 0.6F below average.

    Worcester hit 88F and 89F June 1st and 2nd (remember that amazing Memorial Day weekend sunny very warm stretch ?) that resulted in 2 big temp departures to start the month inland.

    Likewise, Worcester is on a 5 day stretch of above avg temp departures.

    Its last 4 nights of low temps have been 67F, 68F, 67F, 65F.

    Worcester needs 0.03 in of rain these last 3 days to reach its monthly average for rainfall.

    It has received 0.01 of rainfall today, so it needs only 0.02 in more 🙂 🙂 🙂

  14. To complete the 4 major climate reporting stations in southern New England:

    Hartford is at 1.0F below avg.

    Providence is at 5.1F below avg for June. Lucky them.

  16. You may recall me saying this has been the driest “rainy” June I can remember. I think the data back that up. There really hasn’t been much rain here in Boston.

  17. I feel like the short range models a bit underplayed the showers storms ongoing now in northern Mass and NH.

    I assume the stuff in eastern ny state is for later on.

  18. Wondering if tonight’s rain bands will stay north and west of Boston. I have Sox tickets.

    1. Since Fenway is not all that far from me, I’d venture a guess and say you will “probably” be ok. Problem is, one never knows.
      So far, it sure likes like NOTHING is coast bound. 🙂

    1. Wow, that is beautiful, Vicki. The different shades of gray and the clouds look like they are fanning out and with the farm in the background a very nice picture. Thank you and I know everyone else will enjoy it too.

  20. I don’t recall seeing Mark on here for quite a while. I hope he is traveling and all is ok

    1. Hope so, but I think Mark is more of a Winter type visitor, so it may not mean anything. But, I agree, Hope all is well.

  22. One AC Installed. They get HEAVIER each year!!!!!

    The units we have must weigh 150 pounds each. Crap, are they heavy. I almost can’t lift them any more and I am no weakling by
    any stretch. 🙂

  23. ONCE AGAIN,

    ALL of the day time convective activity is WELL to my West.
    So what else is new??

    Will there by any action tonight?

    1. To our west also. And what looks as if it just might get here is fizzling before it hits the MA border

  24. Air Quality Alert
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    4:38 PM EDT Wed, Jun 28, 2023

    …AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT…

    The Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection has issued an Air Quality Action Day for Fine Particulates, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night.

    An Air Quality Action day means that Fine Particulates concentrations within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. For additional information, please visit the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection website at:

  27. We had/are having quite a thunderstorm here in Sudbury. About an hour ago, the skies grew dark to the west and it started thundering but no rain. But then the skies opened and it still is pouring . Big booms of thunder that even scared the cat and lightning, too. Rain would cut down and start again. Some fire trucks down the street. Still very, very dark here. No wind at all.

  28. Thank you TK!
    Another .93” in the rain bucket most of which fell during the last hour with that line of convection, basic garden variety storms, sub severe but always fun to watch anyways, however it put a quick end to my sons little league practice. Tom alluded to this earlier that the atmosphere is primed for torrential downpours.

    1. I have seen that before. I am not certain, but I believe it indicates
      the direction in which the storms are moving in relation to your location. Makes some sense, but again, I am not sure on this.

  33. Once again, a coastal collapse with the thunderstorms.
    It was laughable! Barely rained here. Sure there was a bit of rain, but I could watch the echoes go from red to orange to yellow
    and finally to mostly green as it came through here and broke apart. What a JOKE!

    1. That was not a surprise given the set-up at the time of the storms.

      I actually used that as part of my chase plan and the reason I was sitting just northwest of Sudbury starting at 6:30PM. 🙂

      1. 🙂
        I saw those storms out there and said to myself, FAT CHANCE
        they hold together for my area. I didn’t think a chance in the world!

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