Thursday June 29 2023 Forecast (7:34AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

While the overall pattern doesn’t change very much, there will be changes in the day-to-day weather as we move through the next several days. Upper level low pressure drifts eastward over the region today and still supports diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, but in more isolated form in contrast to yesterday’s more organized activity. And as previously stated, this low gets to our east finally by Friday with just a chance of a few more isolated showers/storms during the day. We finally get a day without a shower / storm threat at all on Saturday as a weak high pressure area controls the weather. As we head to Sunday and Monday, the picture is a little more fuzzy. It looks like one initial disturbance may bring a shower threat to our region in the early hours of Sunday, and then the impact of the next upper level trough remains in question as we head through Monday. While it tries to push into the region, there will be some resistance from a high pressure ridge to our northeast, and it may be enough to minimize the impact of the trough. So for now I will smooth over the forecast wording for the end of this 5-day period and fine-tune it as we get closer.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms until midday. Partly sunny with only isolated showers / thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 75-82. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure nearby but far enough southwest of the region to minimize shower and storm chances early in the period, then a more westerly (zonal) flow with a few opportunities for passing showers/storms and somewhat more seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Zonal pattern with weak westerly flow but a tendency for surface high pressure to be located in eastern Canada. A couple shower chances. No major heat.

83 thoughts on “Thursday June 29 2023 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    With last evening’s convective activity
    there was a coastal collapse.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Overall there have been some quite pleasant parts of nearly every day for varied interests to enjoy. And we have had two recent thunder storms to enjoy. And best of all…we are all here to enjoy the variations. What’s not to love. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  10. Thanks TK.

    Certainly no drought conditions THIS particular summer. A crystal clear Drought Monitor map for weeks to come.

  11. I’m rather disillusioned with society these days. It gets me very down. In politics, ad hominem attacks are normalized. Substantive debate rarely happens. But besides politics, what’s worse is that there’s sometimes a visceral and grotesque hatred aimed at media people and celebrities.

    For example, I’m appalled at the fact that Chris Gloninger, an Iowa meteorologist, had to quit after receiving harassing emails and a death threat over his coverage of climate change.

    Then there’s Madonna, who wound up in an ICU recently with a very serious bacterial infection. The stuff I read yesterday on social media sickened me: Cowardly idiots making fun of Madonna, or even wishing her ill. I’m not a Madonna fan, but I don’t wish ill on anyone who’s in an ICU. My mother and father brought us up that way. My mother repeatedly told us that even if we don’t like someone – even if the person’s our enemy – we shouldn’t wish ill on them when they’re in a vulnerable state. I guess that’s no longer something parents pass on? I don’t know. I apologize for being a curmudgeon today.

    1. I could go on and on, but this is a weather blog, so I will bite my tongue.

      Suffice to say, I agree with you.

      Thanks

    3. OMG Joshua. A met had to resign? And I was not aware of Madonna’s illness but I am all too familiar with horrific comments from keyboard warriors.

      I second JPDs comment. With a very heavy heart, I also agree.

      1. I have seen Madonna in concert. She put on one heck of a show that I thoroughly enjoyed. Typically I am only a rock fan, but her music was outstanding. Perhaps it helped that the
        show was in Las Vegas. 🙂

  14. For those that aren’t fans of summer (especially the heat and humidity part), two thoughts for you:

    1. The NFL regular season begins 10 weeks from today.
    2. Bruins tickets for the upcoming season went on sale yesterday.

    1. It’s unfortunate and should NOT happen.

      I do think though, you have to be wary of your audience.

      Now, that shouldn’t stop one from speaking their opinion on issues and all opinions should not get the response he got, even if you fully disagree.

      But, there is a part of me that believes you have to adjust your message to the audience you know is in front of you. Perhaps he did that.

      It’s sad.

      1. I absolutely understand that it is important to know your audience, but in large part it is thanks to that group of folks that this country is far behind in dealing with a very real threat. The really sad part is it is his audience that needs to hear him.

        All of that said JPDs two minute audio link is great. He took a negative and Is creating a positive. And I like to believe he will hopefully reach those who need to hear his message.

  16. Marshfield, Plymouth, Taunton, New Bedford all with 68F-69F dew points.

    Can verify as I’m working on the camper and it’s a steam bath.

  17. I wonder if something small might pop in SE Mass soon.

    Some of the clouds are stratus, but there are some cumulus that are starting to look decent.

  18. Thanks TK.

    Vicki – saw your post yesterday. I’ve been reading but busy traveling as Dave surmised. I’m off work this week. My daughter had a softball tournament in North Conway, NH this past weekend and we extended the trip a few days thru Tuesday. Now we are in Upstate NY at my mothers for the second half of the week. Very hazy here today and air quality alerts in effect region wide.

    Weather looked dismal in NH going into last weekend. I dont ever use weather apps but do check the NWS point and click forecasts as well as their hourly forecasts and quite frankly they were terrible! Showing 80-100% of showers each day and we ended up getting the entire tournament in with no cancelled games, a visit to the Flume Gorge and trip up the COG railway Monday, and a hike up Mt Monadnock on the way back Tuesday with barely any rain. Sunday actually turned out Mostly Sunny and hot up there!

    I will say that they did get some heavy rain sunday night and monday night after dark and the rivers and streams were raging on Monday but overall we lucked out.

      1. Nice shots. Have climbed that one several times long ago. !
        Nice easy climb with a great reward at the top.

    2. Hi Mark. I thought maybe you were busy. I’m very glad all is ok and you are enjoying travel.

      Thank you for touching base. ❤️

  20. Mark, good to hear from you. Somehow I thought you’d be somewhere in the mountains or wilderness.

    Great shots from Monadnock, a favorite mountain of mine. It can be a tough climb, despite it not being a big mountain.

  22. Tom, you bring up a good point regarding the met who resigned. Knowing one’s audience is important. What Chris is saying in Iowa won’t have the same resonance as it does here. And that’s not a knock on Iowa. I like Iowans and Mid-Westerners generally. It’s just that it is a deeply conservative part of the country where talk of climate change is often dismissed as somewhere part of a woke crusade. There’s worry among farmers in particular that green energy policies may negatively affect them. We see the farmers’ protests in Europe, too.

    It’s a tough needle to thread. I don’t think messaging on climate change is particularly helpful on both sides of the debate. Mud-slinging isn’t constructive.

    My personal opinion on how we should go about this is actually one that is derived in part from Teddy Roosevelt and other conservationists who began the tradition of genuine care for the environment in the late 1800s: We’ve only got one earth. It’s important we’re prudent around the choices we make that impact the environment. Certainly rules help. But individual responsibility may be an even more effective message in a country like ours that’s generally averse to having the government tell us what to do. I don’t see enough emphasis on individual responsibility in the messaging.

    1. Typo alert: I’m having lots of Biden moments today. It should say “somehow” part of a woke crusade, not “somewhere.”

  23. Baseball isn’t nearly as popular as it once was. So many of you probably didn’t see that there was a perfect game yesterday, just the 24th in the history of the game! The pitcher for the Yankees, German, just lost his uncle three days ago and said he “pitched the game for him.” And what a game it was. I find the perfect game to be the ultimate achievement in sports. I realize there’s a little luck involved. And German was facing the lowly A’s. But 27 up and 27 down is phenomenal no matter what. Tip of the cap to German.

    2. I did see that and was super-excited, even though I haven’t been a Yankees fan since I was a kid.

    3. I have goosebumps

      Since I don’t believe in coincidence, I’d say he had help from above.

  24. https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04OS4zMzcsNDAuMTVdLCJ6b29tIjo4LjEyNjg3NTcyMTgwMzgyLCJmaWx0ZXIiOiJXU1ItODhEIiwibGF5ZXIiOiJicmVmX3JhdyIsInN0YXRpb24iOiJLSUxYIiwidHJhbnNwYXJlbnQiOnRydWUsImFsZXJ0c092ZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsInN0YXRpb25JY29uc092ZXJsYXkiOnRydWV9LCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5Ijp0cnVlfQ%3D%3D#/

    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KOHX_loop.gif?92f354fcc6cc4d929356a66ae513f3a8

    2 MCS around the south central Plains 500 mb ridge rotating around the ring of fire.

    I’m sure areas seeing these pass through are getting big winds.

  25. Eric F has some tweets today comparing some things seen in June 2023 vs what was seen in June 2009.

    Found them interesting.

  27. If you’re looking for analog years, here’s one my boss told me about, which he got from a former boss:

    1951

    Tropical system off the east coast in January (like this season)
    Tropical Storm in May (June 1 this season)
    El Nino developed as summer began (like this season)
    Persistent trough in the Northeast, featuring off-and on bouts of showers and thunderstorms and near to below normal temperatures, especially in June. (like this season)
    Boston only reached 90 6 times for the entire year. (None this year so far)

    BTW, this analog was pointed out a couple of months ago, before we really got into this pattern.

    1. Thanks!

      Also love the 1951 analog.

      Haven’t had all that much chance to check in here the last several days and you all know why at this point. Still working hard to get things to the next phase. I will check in soon…

  29. JPD I just saw your comment on the arrow on the location indicator on RadarScope. Thank you. That makes sense. I’ll watch now go see if it holds true.

  30. Thanks, TK!

    It looks as if Terre Haute is about to get rocked!
    Is this a bow echo?

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04Ni4yODIsMzkuNzA3XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjguMTI2ODc1NzIxODAzODIsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6ImJyZWZfcmF3Iiwic3RhdGlvbiI6IktJTkQifSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjpmYWxzZSwiYmFzZSI6InN0YW5kYXJkIiwiYXJ0Y2MiOmZhbHNlLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJyZmMiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5Ijp0cnVlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC44LCJsb2NhbCI6MC42LCJsb2NhbFN0YXRpb25zIjowLjgsIm5hdGlvbmFsIjowLjZ9fQ%3D%3D#/

  33. Here is a photo my wife just dug up of the damage sustained
    from hurricane Gloria at her cousin’s house about 4 houses down from us. Believe me, there was no wind occurring at that time that would have cause that damage, unless it was highly localized.

    I still think there was a brief F1 type hurricane induced
    tornado. Wish this photo could show the other trees down
    to get a sense if there was rotation.

    That was their garage. The 2 children on the left are my daughter and son and the others are my wife’s cousin’s children.

    https://ibb.co/gdGx2Vq

  34. Thanks TK. Loving the Saturday forecast. It’s been a weird month, the doom and gloom forecasted happened but I still felt it was a decent month. My ambient registered 10 niches of rain which seems high but we are gone the weekend it poured so wasn’t sure.

    What a June, got laid off, bad weather etc… but July will be better. Heading to Africa for a Safari with my dad (82) for 3 1/2 weeks. Didn’t need TK’s forecast for this trip 🙂 should be 70’s to low 80’s and cold nights. Anyone know if the euro is decent for that area or what should I look at?

    1. Darn Hadi. I am so sorry to hear you were laid off.

      I’m happy you gave the trip with your dad to enjoy

      1. Hadi sorry to hear you have been laid off. I hope you have a great trip with your father.

  37. Hadi, I’m sorry to hear about you being laid off.

    Glad to hear about your trip to Africa with your father.

    2. Yeah looking forward to the trip. A new continent in the books. Clearly feeling super grateful being able to go.

  38. Like occasionally in winter, our humidity dropped with a wind from the south. Guess the drier air finally wrapped all the way around in.

    Noticeable difference and then checking the Obs, what was a near 70F dp most of the day is now 60F or so.

  39. Speaking of the 1951 analog:

    1951-52 Boston snowfall = 39.6”

    Yet another pitiful snow season ahead? ❄️

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