Saturday July 1 2023 Forecast (9:25AM)

67 Comments

COMMENTARY

If you know me well now you hear me chopping down weather apps, and rightfully so as it turns out. I have already run into several people I know that have changed plans or asked me if they should change plans based on what “my weather app says…” … No, no, no. This is not good. It’s not going to rain for the next 3 days, 5 days, 7 days, 2 years. Please. Let’s find a way to learn how to use these things with discretion, or just stop looking at them until the information can be refined and defined. It’s as good as random right now, and so obviously focused on the “biggest” potential as to make it look like that’s the only weather that is to be expected. Count the hours of rain vs. the hours of no rain even during the recent unsettled stretch (say, the last week). You’ll find dry hours will win out, and in many areas, significantly. An hour’s worth of downpours can be a big pain in the butt if it’s right in the middle of your cookout or beach day, and there’s not a whole lot we can do about it other than prepare for the chance, and have a place to wait it out, and a recovery plan if necessary. But that’s nature. It’s always been that way. “Way back when” we didn’t even have a live radar on our phone, or a phone at all if you go back far enough, to tell us there was a shower or thunderstorm entering the neighborhood. And now we do, and it seems like the technology making that possible is also struggling to deliver the correct message to the “weather consumer”. But there’s really no way to fix this other than to spread the word, as I often do. Ditch the apps, or use them wisely, and listen to the professionals – please! No, we’re not always going to be right either. But we’re more valuable. You can bet on that. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

Hello July! This month starts off with kinda-sorta-but-not-really the same pattern we’ve had in June. The pattern is “unsettled” but if you read my commentary above then you know I’m going to point out we’ll have plenty of “rain-free time”, and we will. In fact, I think cancelled bbq’s and fireworks and pool parties and beach days will be the exception rather than the rule from today right through the holiday and even the day after (aka “day 5”). This is how I think it’s going to break down, first on the broad scale, then a little more pinpointed as you read on in this discussion, followed by the detailed forecast. First, the marine layer made great strides into our region from the east overnight and much of the region started the day blanketed by stratus clouds with areas of fog, and even a few patches of light drizzle. Parts of the South Coast and some western portions of the WHW forecast area were excepted from this, starting the day with sun. Elsewhere, the rising sun will burn this layer off as the morning goes on. You’ll notice where sun is already shining and where it emerges that the hazy look is back, and this is due to the eastern side of a wildfire smoke plume that has been to our west for the last couple days and finally pulled eastward by a bit more westerly wind in the atmosphere. It will be around for the weekend, and enough so that at least for today the air quality will be compromised, so keep this in mind if you have outdoor activities planned. As we head through Sunday and Monday, the smoke plume should thin out and slowly recede to the north. The weak high pressure ridge causing out west wind to blow the smoke into the region at this time will shift to more of a southerly flow as a low pressure trough crosses the region Sunday through Tuesday. This will help slowly disperse the smoke, but it will bring back the chance of showers and thunderstorms that you may have to dodge during your weekend / holiday plans. But again, this is not going to “ruin” this summer period of time. You just have to have a plan and be ready to use it. Right now, I think disturbances coming through the region in association with this trough will bring several waves of showers to us on Sunday through early Tuesday. While guessing the timing on these waves is a gamble, current leaning is #1 early to mid morning Sunday, #2 early to mid afternoon Sunday, #3 late Sunday night to early hours Monday, #4 midday Monday, #5 late night Monday to early hours Tuesday. During the day on Tuesday, Independence Day, I’m leaning toward an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few areas but less of a chance overall for the region as the trough axis begins to shift eastward, beyond the region. By Wednesday, that feature is gone, and weak high pressure brings fair weather and July warmth.

TODAY: Low clouds/fog many areas early, then increasing sun but mixed with clouds and haze/smoke. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind E-SE early shifting to SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Haze/smoke. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling slightly to lower 60s. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Unsure of timing of next frontal boundary and disturbance, later July 7 or July 8, for a shower/thunderstorm chance, but the overall pattern during this period looks more settled and seasonable with weak westerly or zonal flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

This period will bring us to mid July and the mid point of meteorological summer with a likely continuation of a weak zonal flow pattern, fairly seasonable temperatures overall, a lack of sustained significant heat, and a couple shower and thunderstorm chances which can’t obviously be detailed so far in advance.

67 thoughts on “Saturday July 1 2023 Forecast (9:25AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    Does look like Western Mass. – where I’m headed tomorrow – is going to be quite rainy tomorrow afternoon and evening.

    1. I think one or 2 waves of showers (possible thunder) in there that should take up 2 hours each, but probably less. By wave, it’s talking about the period of time. It can rain “several times” during that period, but I don’t think it’s going to take up nearly the entire time. Far less. When you add it up, it’ll rain less than 50% of the time, probably significantly less. Have a plan.

  2. Went to the Framingham Station Brazilian Steakhouse last night (it’s in the old Framingham train station building that’s been entirely refurbished and nicely done). The restaurant is highly recommended for those of you who enjoy fine meats. I’m not a big meat-eater, but I sampled what they had and it was really excellent. They of course also have vegetables and salads and some great desserts.

    2. Thank you, Joshua. We have not been to that restaurant and will definitely keep in mind. We have been to a couple of the other restaurants that have been there. It is a fascinating building.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Spot on commentary !!

    One of my family member’s, who I shall not mention 🙂 🙂 🙂 looked at a weather app forecast for our first stop in New Brunswick and said, “is it going to rain the whole time ?”

    It hasn’t. Oh, there’s been showers here and there, occasional sun, fog, mist, thunder and it’s humid.

    Sunset here tonight at 9:11 pm. Not furthest east in a time zone anymore.

    1. That sunset time doesn’t seem right to me. Down here in Boston it’s 8:25 pm. Shouldn’t it be considerably earlier than Boston’s?

      1. nope, its that much farther North. Go farther North
        and sunset is later. Farther North and there is NO sunset.
        (Land of the midnight sun 🙂 )

        Here is sunrise and sunset for Fairbanks AK which is “just:” South of the Arctic Circle

        sun Rise 6:36 AM
        Sun Set 3:10 AM

        64.83 Degrees North Latitude.

      2. Ok now I get it. I looked it up and NB is on ADT (Atlantic Daylight Time) so their time is 1 hour ahead of us. 🙂

          1. I do believe that New Brunswick is on Atlantic time

            Atlantic Daylight Time
            Time zone in New Brunswick, Canada (GMT-3)
            Saturday, July 1, 2023, 12:03 PM

    2. Lol you should hear my conversation here as I get ready to leave. My wife always asks me daily the forecast and I provide it. So I said what are we doing when I am in Africa, her response was I will look at he apple weather app. I was like nope, told my son the page here to look at it.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Belmont Park canceled its thoroughbred racing card on Friday due to poor air quality caused by wildfires in Canada.

    1. I’d like to think it was the the benefit of the horses but that would be a first so suspect something else

  6. Thank you, TK. Two of my children use weather maps. A couple of the grands have started to copy their parents. Several days ago one parent had said what the weather will be and her youngest’s response was “I’m asking nana. She will really know.”

    I’m still laughing.

  8. It’s time for folks to take about 15-20 minutes and tune in to local news and get the latest information on the particular day’s weather. Sure, these young tv mets maybe drone on a bit, but they’ve been pretty much spot on timing these diurnal showers so far. Another choice is to go to a station’s website, download their app and watch the forecast from their phone. 🙂

    2. Agree. We have said many times on WHW that our area is blessed with exceptional Mets. The “droning” or educating is one of my favorite parts. It is their way of addressing the unfair criticism they far to often receive. I’ve noticed also that the criticism can arise from folks who rely on weather apps. If the day doesn’t “turn out” the way the app predicted, then the Mets are blamed.

      That said, twitter is one of my favorite ways to follow the Mets and their forecasts. Their personalities really shine on there

      1. I mostly mentioned the “droning” to point out that these days folks want to just look down at their phone and get immediate answers instead of taking a bit of time (well spent) watching a detailed forecast. People these days are so lazy and in such a rush all the time.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Still socked in the Stratus, although finally brightening some.
    Sun should break through relatively soon.

    A comment on yesterday:

    We had a RIP ROARING EAST wind all day yesterday.
    Sun was blazing hot with a cooling breeze felt on the body.
    Was stuck at 78 most of the PM, but around 5 PM or so,
    the mercury touched 80 here, even with that rip roaring
    EAST wind!

    Currently sitting at: 69 with dp 65

  11. Question. We could not see the house across the street this morning. I notice TK mentioned the marine layer. Would that have been the cause or would it have also been mixed with smoke to make it worse.

    Caution….my next question is a serious one but the timing is interesting based on TKs discussion.

    Daughter told me the weather app always has three lines to indicate fog. It did not have any fog symbols so she thought it was all smoke.

    So can an app pick up fog from a marine layer.

    I may have worded that incorrectly but hope it makes some sense

    1. There was a lot of dense fog around this morning that was independent of any low level smoke. That was definitely marine layer.

      Around 4:00 a.m. it was very foggy here as well.

        1. Well weather apps are not detecting anything specifically. Whether apps are just applications that are doing whatever they are programmed to do.

          Best way to find out what is going on is to look at NWS observations.

          The problem with weather apps is that there are numerous and there is no regulation of them really. It’s just who decides it’s going to show and how they go about getting the information. That’s why the forecasts on it are so poor because the information that is going into those is generic and often automated. Only in some cases are humans controlling that.

    1. Would you say that summer 2023 will end up averaging on the below normal side?

      With some hot/very hot days here and there, of course. đź‘ż

      1. That will depend on August.

        June was cool.
        July will probably be close to or slightly below normal.
        August is the wild card.

        1. August 2009 was quite HOT then rapidly cooled down in September iirc.

          Even in New England it’s very difficult to totally escape significant heat including the year without a summer 1816.

    2. When you say via my phone, do you mean a weather app?
      A weather widget?
      It all depends upon the location of the sensor and reading they are using. It could be a site at Copley Square or the Fenway who knows. PLUS it the data could be old.

      My computer is showing me 79 when it is 72 here!

  15. Quick glance at the 12z data tells me there are no changes to my forecast through day 5. Haven’t looked beyond but really find no reason to update that until next blog anyway. 🙂

    Today is my main day to get things ready for my day in Boston on July 4.

    After Thursday’s work day, I started a 6-day break from Friday through Wednesday. I’d have liked to take all of next week but I didn’t (probably should have) but I have loads of time to take so I’ll scatter some days in the summer and cluster a big bunch toward year’s end. 🙂

    Anyway, I’ll be keeping an eye on the weather for my fireworks run over the next several nights…

    Hampton Beach was PPD from Wed to Fri this week, and last night it went off nicely in a marine layer with just a hint of fog so the vis was OK! The night before that, Somerville’s was done under great weather conditions. Tonight, it’s Braintree I’ll be at. No weather issues. A bit iffy for Wilmington and Gloucester on Sunday & Monday, but if my timing is correct, we’ll be OK. Tuesday night in Boston – looking OK to me! Next Wednesday, back at Hampton and should be a summery night. 🙂

          1. If it wasn’t for the persistent humidity this summer so far would be nearly perfect!

            1. It has been more humid since the solstice. But on the whole late spring didn’t seem very humid to me. Ans I admit to having a poor short term memory so maybe forgot.

            2. It actually hasn’t been that humid at all if you go back to the start of meteorological summer. And 99% of it has been without heat, or even above normal temps in many cases. But we had a long, LONG stretch of lower than average humidity right through May and into June. This has been one of the easiest-to-take early seasons regarding humidity since 2001.

  18. Enjoying the beautiful breeze on my patio in Amesbury. Only negative…seems like the smoke is back.

    1. It came back late yesterday / early today. It’s around Sunday, then retreats from south to north Monday.

  20. Sea breeze in Boston dropped the temperature.

    Some Canada Day fireworks displays are being canceled due to the smoke. Canada Day is tomorrow.

    I could not complete my long run today because of the poor air quality. Was gassed after 4 miles.

    Hopefully my 5.5 hours of driving tomorrow is worth it as I head to Tanglewood and back to Boston late. I’m renting a car, as I ditched my jalopy in January.

    1. Agree 100% and his talent is being wanted in obscurity. 7 games out of first and playing out west. Time for him to come to the big teams and show off.

  22. Great weather last night and it certainly cooled off more than I thought at Gillette . Ed Sheeran was simply incredible, a good human first and then a terrific musician.

  24. Got to work just in time before the rain. If I had been even somewhat late I would have been drenched. The sun was even out a few blocks away.

    1. I am looking forward to doing the Sunday AM errands in a summer rain, actually. I love the smell of it, and the feel of it. Lightning won’t be an issue / threat with this activity in my area, so I’ll be enjoying the raindrops while I let my brother’s dog out, go return some cans & bottles, do mom’s groceries, and pick up a quick brunch/coffee for her.

      My walk ’round the pond later, we’ll see how that goes.

      My wildcard plan is a fireworks display that may or may not be postponed. I have back-up displays if choice #1 is postponed, but if that’s the case, the odds of the back-ups being postponed would be higher as well.

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