Sunday July 2 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

Saturday was quite a nice day to start off the month of July if you ignore the low level wildfire smoke that reduced visibility and worsened air quality. Some of that hangs around today before being scoured out on Monday. Unsettled weather will be the theme of the next couple days as a low pressure trough swings through the region with a series of disturbances. Timing of these will be crucial for planned outdoor activities such as beach plans, cookouts, and fireworks displays. Today will be the day with the least favorable rainfall timing and most extensive cloud cover. The largest and longest-lasting shower episodes will take place this morning to mid afternoon from west to east across the region. It won’t rain in every WHW forecast area location the entire time, with the initial thrust to the north and west of Boston, and eventually further to the east and south, but even between this area and another that arrives later tonight there can be a few spotty showers and thunderstorms. The area that arrives late tonight will move out by dawn Monday. From midday on, and especially afternoon on Monday, we’ll have to watch for scattered showers and thunderstorms with the storm possibly strong to severe, especially west of the I-95 corridor. I suspect this activity takes a break in the evening before another disturbances later at night brings additional shower/storm chances. Current timing suggests that a shower and thunderstorm threat will exist Tuesday (Independence Day) morning before a break, and only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms for the afternoon hours, but any that do occur can contain very heavy downpours. If there’s any better news it’s that the coverage of these will be limited and that they should fade for evening fireworks displays in most if not all of the region. Midweek (Wednesday and Thursday) will be warm and summery with a weak area of high pressure moving in, but Thursday may feature some cooling coastal sea breezes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Haze/smoke. Highs 73-80. Dew point rising to near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, may cool back to the 70s coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Unsure of timing of next frontal boundary and disturbance, later July 7 or July 8, for a shower/thunderstorm chance, but the overall pattern during this period looks more settled and seasonable with weak westerly or zonal flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Weak flow pattern including the return of weak troughing may incite more unsettled weather for mid month with a lack of heat but high humidity. Fine-tuning to come of course.

66 thoughts on “Sunday July 2 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Still no signs of big heat. Fine with me. :mrgreen:

    Got in to work just in time before the rain. The sun was out a little a few blocks away.

    1. I suspect a lot of postponements today and tomorrow, even where not necessary, based on weather apps being used for decisions.

      I know of one already that was called 24 hours in advance, only because I’m friends with the lead pyrotechnician.

      We’ll see.

      I think the ones on the night of July 4th will be ok though! Exception may be Cape Cod.

      1. I don’t understand how a Pyro company can give control to a customer without a penalty. And I would sure hope the Pyro companies are not using weather apps.

        1. I’m not sure how each individual one runs, but I know the one I am in contact most now (American Thunder) is pretty good about getting the best info possible. I’ve actually been helping out the guy I know as much as I can, but the event he was scheduled to shoot at tonight was postponed last night by the organizers – not sure if that was based on an app forecast or not. Sometimes it depends also on other events that are part of a larger program of events for the day (or a series of days, like Wilmington, who does 4 days including a carnival, and Lexington, who does similar). So there are many variations that go into all this.

          1. Agree re many working parts. Milford out here rescheduled its for tonight. It’s been pouring and I can’t imagine sitting in a wet field let alone the folks who spend the entire day setting up fencing, etc. But then that is what rain dates are for.

            Hard to tell what the cancellation reasons are. I’m betting the vast majority would not understand we postponed because they can’t get the field Hayed. Ours is now on July 22 as you know, and I’m still not seeing a window to hay the field. Fireworks and long grass just do not mix well.

    1. I wouldn’t gamble on them staying dry for an entire 3 hour period in there. But hopefully most of it is.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like there will be some breaks in the rain in Central and Western Mass., as you indicated there would be. It’ll be rainy and a bit foggy but not a total washout, which is easier to drive through. The Berkshires will look green. That’s for sure.

    In fall I like driving out there on a gray day because of the contrast between the colors and the gray sky.

      1. This is an interior thunderstorm threat tomorrow. It is not going to be a widespread event.

            1. Which is VERY RARE!

              In all the years I have lived in the City (since 1970)
              I have only witnessed 2 or 3 truly severe thunderstorms by NWS definition NOT the general public definition. Anytime there is loud thunder, it is a severe thunderstorm to my wife. 🙂

              What is a severe thunderstorm?
              A thunderstorm is classified as “severe” when it contains one or more of the following: hail one inch or greater, winds gusting in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado.

              Funny thing, in New England, we sometimes can get a weak tornado from a NON-Severe thunderstorm.

              Truly severe T-Storms Just doesn’t happen often in the city for tons of different reasons. 🙂

              1. Even in more prone areas, an actual “severe t-storm” by definition is rare. How often does one random location in Indiana have hail 1 inch or greater in diameter and/or winds of 58 MPH or greater from a t-storm? Not often.

                A problem I see ’round social media is when they issue a severe weather outlook and put a region in “slight risk” or whatever it may be, most of the people who see that take that as a 100% guarantee that the biggest cell of the lot will maximize itself right in their back yard. And no, no, that’s not the case pretty much 99.5% of the time.

                1. Yes, very true.

                  However, other areas have a far greater chance of a “true” Severe thunderstorm than
                  the city of Boston whatever that chance may be.

                  When a severe thunderstorm watch is issued and Boston is included in the watch, I have to chuckle and say to myself FAT CHANCE of that. However, I have been around long enough to know that it “could” Happen, so I am on my guard and monitor the radars closely. 🙂

  11. Today reminds me a little bit of July 2 2009, but it was cooler & the rain was heavier that day. Boston is 68 right now. Their high temp that day was 65.

  12. Thanks TK,
    By having pretty saturated soil, wetlands, forests ect , will that contribute to keeping the temp down by a few degrees once we realize fun sun in the days to follow, and will this contribute to higher humidity due to the evaporation?

    1. Yes. Coming out of a pattern like this the guidance tends to over-forecast temps when the energy needs to go into evaporation before it can go into heating the air.

    1. Right! our dew point went up to 71!!!

      YUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  18. The weather has been really decent here since our arrival.

    But, I see down east Maine is under a flood watch and environment Canada has fundy national park in an excessive rainfall advisory tonight and tomorrow.

    50-70 mm or 2 to 2.8 inches of rain.

    With those dps in southern New England riding up and over this maritime air, I am ready for a deluge.

    And boy, can it rain up here 🙂 !!

  19. Thanks TK.

    It was extremely smoky and hazy for our last couple days in Upstate NY on Thursday and Friday. Filtered sun with poor visibility and I could smell it in the air when I walked out of the house. We were on Lake George on Friday and I snapped this picture. Still a nice shot but the mountains that line the lake and were greater than a mile away were either obscured by the smoke or not visible at all like they normally are:

    https://imgur.com/UM7De5T

    Back in CT now as my daughter’s tournament this weekend is in Windsor, CT. The haze/smoke followed us back here as it was very noticeable in the air yesterday.

    Today was a complete washout in Windsor this AM. Heavy rain training over the same area N&W of Hartford all morning and they cancelled all of today’s games. Was not surprised to see that BDL picked up 2.25″ of rain this AM in the NWS link that Vicki posted above. Although it dried out in the PM, the fields were unplayable by then. They are going to try again tomorrow…we’ll see how it goes.

  25. Just when I wasnt paying attention….

    Thundering now here in Coventry CT and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has just been issued for Tolland County.

    1. Torrential rain, thunder and lightning came through here with that cell but no hail or wind. A loud storm but definitely not severe.

  26. Not sure if we have had any 90 degree days yet but wondered if any were likely this week. Thanks.

  28. I’m not sure if Matt read here much now. But do want to wish him a very happy birthday!!!

    1. thanks Vicki, I do read here once and a while but not as much as I use too. I also have been going through alot this past month, here is for July to be a nicer one to me.

      1. I hope your day has been special. I’m sorry to hear it has been a difficult month. I sure hope July is better for you also!

    1. Been absolutely pouring again here for the past several hours and it has awakened me a few times now. Great to see we are getting such beneficial rains but the softball fields are once again going to be a mess in the morning!

      1. 3.15” of rain now in the last 22 hours at BDL and that does not include what has fallen since 1am!

          1. Seemingly biblical rains during most of my drive to and from Tanglewood. Got a break during the concert, but we were under the roof, so by then it didn’t matter. Once the concert was over the heavens unloaded again, and I mean torrential. As my friend said, this doesn’t seem like a July rainstorm. I totally agreed. July rain tends to be of the passing storm kind. This was just like the spigot was open full blast for hours.

            Concert was very good, though.

            1. July rain can indeed be that way under the right weather pattern. I think this is a skewed perception of what should and should not be because this type of a pattern is just a less frequent occurrence. In fact, heavier rainfall rates are MORE likely in the summer because the atmosphere can hold more moisture to unload.

              The difference, a passing shower or thunderstorm is more typical than a longer-lasting rain, but the latter is not extremely unusual by any stretch. It’s just less common.

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