Monday July 3 2023 Forecast (8:27AM)

87 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

The bad news: The shower and thunderstorm chance exists into the holiday. The good news: There will be long rain-free breaks, and regional drier conditions seem to coincide with fireworks displays tonight and Tuesday night. We still have to get a trough to slide across our region and begin to exit seaward, but this doesn’t happen fully until the end of the day Tuesday. We’ve had another significant wave of showers/rain during the overnight. We’re left with foggy areas and a general overcast across the region early this morning, but we’ll see more of an opportunity for clouds to break for intervals of sun, and we can’t rule out a few more showers and storms firing up during the day today, though coverage will be less than yesterday. Where they do occur though, heavy rain would be likely, and there is a low chance that a severe storm could occur with hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Any thunderstorms contain a lightning threat, so be aware of anything in the area if you have outdoor plans – not only today but tomorrow too. It looks fairly quiet this evening before another cluster of showers/storms comes through parts of the region during the overnight. This sets us up for one more round of scattered showers and storms on Tuesday somewhere midday to mid afternoon, with the greatest chance being near and south of I-90. It finally looks like this activity is outta here by evening and we can enjoy a weather-worry-free Independence Day evening, the only exception being some patchy fog in prone areas that if occurring early enough could make viewing fireworks “interesting”. High pressure builds in midweek with warmer, drier weather, and the next frontal boundary approaches by later Friday when a few showers and storms may be in the region. And an update on the wildfire smoke. Near-surface smoke may hang near the South Coast for a while today, otherwise it’s largely exited the region, and will stay away through the holiday into midweek. Some higher altitude smoke may drift in at times mid to late week, but not overly thick.

TODAY: Overcast start with areas of fog and possibly a lingering shower. Clouds break for sun at times but chance of a shower or thunderstorm midday and afternoon. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly S to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm – best chance overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible until mid afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 70, falling slightly later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W around 10 MPH late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, may cool back to the 70s coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point surpassing 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Frontal boundary in the region on the weekend of July 8-9 brings a shower and thunderstorm chance. This unsettled pattern may continue into the following week as well. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

General weak troughing dominating with humid conditions and a chance of showers/storms at times in this pattern. No major heat foreseen.

87 thoughts on “Monday July 3 2023 Forecast (8:27AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Will Boston/Logan see that elusive 90F this week?

    With no major heat through mid-month, it appears 2023 so far is continuing the same path as 2009.

  5. Being in the marginal risk a locally strong or severe thunderstorm is possible. This won’t be a widespread severe weather event.

  6. Yesterday, I could tell when the front passed by area as the dew point rose from 65.66 to 71 and then to 73!!!! This was about 5-6PM. Then by about 10 PM or so, it has sagged South and the dew point dropped back to 65-66. Interesting.

    Front is STILL to my South this morning and I HOPE IT STAYS THERE!!!!!

    That humidity was STIFLING last evening!!

  10. John Adams in a letter to Abigail on July 3, 1776. What an amazing man.

    I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated, by succeeding Generations, as the great anniversary Festival. It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.
    You will think me transported with Enthusiasm but I am not. — I am well aware of the Toil and Blood and Treasure, that it will cost Us to maintain this Declaration, and support and defend these States. — Yet through all the Gloom I can see the Rays of ravishing Light and Glory. I can see that the End is more than worth all the Means. And that Posterity will tryumph in that Days Transaction, even altho We should rue it, which I trust in God We shall not.

    Happy Birthday, America

  12. Thank you TK,
    Thank you Vicki for posting that poignant message, Indeed.
    I picked up another 1.67” since midnight add that to the 1.45” yesterday that’s 3.12” in 24 hours not a bad drink for the garden.

    2. You are welcome, Sc. I get goosebumps every time I read any of Adams letters. Mac and I went to a fireplace chat at the Fireplace restaurant in Brookline years ago. An archivist from BPL shared many letters between John and Abigail. There really are no words to describe how amazing each was in his/her own right

      And wow. Absolutely amazing amount of rain. Shows how close the big rain was to us. But we an even .50 yesterday and we did pick up .73 early morning. A drop in the bucket compared to your area.

  13. Thanks TK !

    Lots of rain overnight, into this morning.

    When I look at the rest of Canada, the rain is a beautiful thing.

  15. Vicki, thank you for sharing Adams’ July 3rd message from 1776, the day before independence was declared.

  16. Interesting item in the Dutch main news, a report on the need for more ocean thermometers (Argo floats) and temperature measurements, especially in light of the unusually warm Atlantic right now. The article suggests the current situation cannot be adequately explained by El Niño, and that alternative explanations are likely. But, they emphasize that such explanations are hypothetical until they’re proven (they hypothesize that at least some of the warming is related to climate change). The researchers cited in the article suggest there aren’t enough thermometers and that this can be problematic for forecasters, climate experts, and others. https://nos.nl/artikel/2481180-sterke-opwarming-atlantische-oceaan-werpt-licht-op-tekortkomingen-meetsysteem

  17. Philip..
    I do not expect Boston to get to 90 this week.
    If they do it will probably sneak in Wednesday or Friday but they would need to keep away a sea breeze. It’s just not really the setup that brings that kind of heat to the coast. Even inland it will be difficult because the topsoil moisture is pretty high in general and a lot of energy goes into evaporating the water before heating the air.

    1. Thanks TK. It’s just that the tv mets keep pushing 90 for at least one day on their outlooks. I believe only Ch. 7 has sea breezes for Boston.

  18. Everybody loves a sunny warm beach day but I am in Hampton Beach under a stratus overcast with light drizzle at times.

    But it is a bright overcast with sun shining above it and it is mild and humid and I love that feel to the air. Glorious. 🙂

  19. Good things about this weather:

    Never have to mow lawn because grass always too wet
    It’s a nice day when the ground is just wet and it’s not raining
    Don’t have to worry about using sunscreen
    No need to water lawns, plants, etc.
    Constant rain at night seems to be minimizing illegal fireworks in my town
    Minimal use of central air conditioning

    1. Yes, you do still need sunscreen. The sun angle is as high as it will get. Even on an overcast day, the estimate is that 30% of the sun’s UV rays still get down to ground level. So, despite the cloudcover, you can still get a sunburn without sunscreen on it you are outside for 45-60 minutes.

  20. Thanks Vicki! 🙂

    I went back to “hot” DD coffee today due to the low clouds, mist/drizzle and fog. Only maybe 3-4 iced coffees so far this summer. I “should” be able to get back to DD iced late week/weekend. 😉

  21. Thanks TK. Thanks Vicki for your post too!

    What happened with the RRFS. It hasn’t updated on Pivotal since Friday night in its test phase.

    1. Perhaps the test phase ended at the end of June. Now they reevaluate, make any tweaks needed, and then test it again. It’s not scheduled to be operational until late in 2024.

  24. SAK, you make a good point and one which many of us (myself included) often forget. The sun is at its very peak right now, and so despite it being overcast it’s a good idea to wear sunscreen. My sister who is a dermatologist always tells me this.

    1. Agree, Joshua. He makes an excellent point. My younger brother passed away from malignant melanoma. My MIL had much difficulty with skin cancer. We have always been very careful with our kids ….sun or clouds.

  26. I should add it is pretty putrid out here. 81F and a dewpoint of 70 with stagnant air. Only saving Grace is that it is mostly cloudy now. Philips hot coffee does not sound very appealing right now.

    1. Here in Boston this morning was quite different. It felt more like back to early spring, cool, cloudy and miserable. Hopefully my last hot coffee until October.

    2. I now understand what is meant by the comment….the air is so thick that you can cut it with a knife

  27. Well I think I know which side of the front I am on.

    temp up to 76 and dp 70!!!!!

    i was just out and the wind is clearly S or SW and I don’t give a rat’s *SS what it is a the airport or what some weather app or widget says! I just installed another AC and I am DRIPPING WET!!!!

    1. 82 with 69 DP here Hot but oddly doesn’t feel as thick as yesterday. Or I’m getting used to it

  28. JPD, just a suggestion but maybe you should have your son and/or daughter install/uninstall your AC units from now on. 🙂

    1. At the very least have one of them give you a hand. It’s time to RETIRE from AC installation! 😉

      1. thanks Philip, but I’m ok with it for now. My son will help any time I need it. 😀

  31. When that storm was over the Hudson River Valley in NY radar was indicating hail was happening with that storm.

  32. Was just in JP and it felt hot and humid in the sun.

    Took the T to Chinatown and it was a little cooler, though still humid. On my walk home I felt a somewhat comfortable breeze, which I did not feel in JP at my son’s.

  33. Snowplows look like they’re ready to roll in my neighborhood. The plows are in fact hooked up again, as if a snowstorm is approaching. But it’s obviously not for that purpose. It’s to prevent car bombs or other terrorist attacks. They’ve been setting them up in such a way to block side streets that feed onto David Mugar Way and also one of the back streets parallel to Storrow Drive.

      1. Yes, but I’m glad they take any threat or `chatter’ seriously. Only a few years ago truck bombs killed scores in Nice, France during Bastille Day celebrations.

  34. Here’s the kind of summer forecast I was very accustomed to during my time in Britain and the Netherlands. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dB76JsCaJgo

    Lots of double-barreled low pressure action descending from Iceland. Now these areas of low pressure are able to traverse at least Ireland, Britain, and parts of Western Europe. There’s no block in place any more. I doubt it will come back this summer.

    1. Fascinating videos. And I love the term lightning swarm. Thank you. Will share with my granddaughter

  38. This is who I saw at Tanglewood, the legendary Robert Plant (and Alison Krauss).

    Here Plant is in 1971 performing Stairway to Heaven.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbhCPt6PZIU

    He now wears a shirt while performing, but the same hand gestures and incredible vocal range. Such an unusual voice.

    Just imagine these British lads writing this extraordinarily creative song when they were barely more than 20. Amazing talents. Future generations will enjoy this music for centuries to come. It is classic, analogous to what we call classical music (which I also like, by the way).

  41. Wow, quite the night! Hours of torrential rain, lightning and thunder. Too bad my rain gauge is currently not functional. I will be interested to see some of the spotter reports tomorrow. Going to be some hefty 2-3 day rain totals in many areas, especially here in CT.

    I was able to snap a great picture of a rainbow (complete arc) in Manchester CT earlier this evening as the first storm was passing by just to our southeast. I will post it tomorrow.

    1. Wow. I saw a flash flood warning down your way. I was not sure where you were though. Which brings me to the idea that we can play “where in New England is Mark” 🙂 🙂 😉

      I’m seeing flashes of lightning now but has to be from a distance as I’m not hearing any thunder.

      1. I am in the north part of Coventry closer to the Tolland line (about 3-4 miles north/northwest of Coventry Lake). The flash flood warning was just to our south and included the southern part of town but we got our fair share of rain as well.

        Of course you could be referring to the fact I have been traveling the past week 🙂 We are actually going to be in Newport tomorrow and Wed we have tickets to the Yankees game in NY. But after that the fun ends for awhile and I will be staying put for the rest of the month.

        1. Actually that is not entirely correct…my daughter has a tournament in Swansea the weekend of the 22nd 🙂

  42. Thunder and lightning and rain..oh my.

    I don’t think to the extent Mark saw but keeping me up and entertained nonetheless. Vivid and constant lightning

    Family is all here tomorrow for a belated bday celebration for me and I may need to nap in the middle of it

    1. Happy belated birthday! Enjoy your day! Hopefully you can get some good weather in early on before the next round of showers and storms rolls in.

    1. I have a patch like that out here. I actually caused it to spread when I mulch mowed my yard last week including a small patch of mushrooms. HAHA!

Comments are closed.