Wednesday July 5 2023 Forecast (9:37AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

I hope you all survived the holiday and its showers and storms (some areas) firework-obscuring low clouds and fog (some other areas and some of the same areas), etc. You get the idea. Sometimes Mother Nature is kind, and sometimes she is not so, but she’s just doing her thing, and she’s been doing that to the dismay of many lately (not I though, because I just take it in stride and adjust as I go). But even I would not mind a couple days that are more classic summertime feeling with lots of sun and maybe less of a rain threat than we’ve seen on many recent days. Well, that’s what we get today, and tomorrow, with weak high pressure in control, but strong enough to keep the shower and thunderstorm threat to an isolated minimum, with maybe a quick couple of the pop-up variety mainly over interior northern MA and southern NH both days, but with the extreme majority of the region seeing nothing at all. And for the first time in a while it’ll be on the hotter side, not sizzling heat of course, barely getting to 90 for the highest temps with 80s for most. The coast can see a cooling sea breeze on both afternoons, keeping the high temps closer to 80 there, even some 70s over Cape Cod and the Islands where wind from just about any direction is a “sea breeze” of one kind or another. This warmer weather does come with a continuation of fairly high humidity though, and we haven’t had too many days that combine 80s and higher humidity, so it may feel quite hot to some, despite it being fairly modest by New England. When we get to Friday and Saturday, the high pressure area will shift to the east and a low pressure trough will be setting up in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This produces a southerly air flow over our region. This is a warm pattern, but I do think any shower and thunderstorm activity will be quite limited, or even non-existent for most of the region. A small low pressure area offshore may keep it a bit cooler with a slightly better shower threat around Cape Cod on Friday, but this remains to be seen and may be a feature over-forecast by guidance, so will keep an eye on that. A frontal system associated with the trough to the west will get closer, probably close enough to send showers and storms into western New England Friday, but they may only skirt the western reaches of the WHW forecast area later in the day or evening before they are largely dissipated. And this system is not going to really make any progress on Saturday, which other than the slight chance for a few pop up showers and storms mainly over interior sections, may be a completely rain-free day for much of the region, along with continued very warm and humid weather. Sunday’s a bit of a split in prognosticating tools, with some showing some form of Saturday rerun, but showers/storms getting closer from the west, and some showing a wetter scenario evolving. I’m leaning closer to the second scenario, and will have showers in the forecast. I don’t think the set-up screams big thunderstorms this far in advance, but it may very well be one that can produce some heavy rainfall, nonetheless. This will be another forecast detail I’ll monitor and fine-tune. If the slower scenario ends up correct, Sunday ends up largely rain-free and the weekend ends up quite nice if you don’t mind the high humidity we’ll have.

TODAY: Lingering low clouds/fog South Coast burning off by late morning. Otherwise sunshine then a sun/cloud mix with only a slight chance of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring interior northern portions of the WHW area (southwestern NH, north central MA). Highs 83-90, except 76-83 immediate shore, coolest Cape Cod and Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except areas of low clouds and fog redeveloping, mainly in interior low elevations and along the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew points 63-70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Any low clouds/fog dissipating early followed by a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, which would favor interior areas from south central NH to central MA. Highs 84-91, 76-83 coastal areas again coolest Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

67 thoughts on “Wednesday July 5 2023 Forecast (9:37AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Drove out to Hopkinton late yesterday PM and drove through
    a Deluge! We practically floated out there. Rain virtually stopped when we arrived. 🙂

  3. Joshua, re: your Netherlands video. I just posted this on the previous blog when TK posted a new one.

    You said max wind gust was 76 mph?
    Hmmm seems to me too many trees came down.
    Makes me question the root system of those trees.
    They seem to come down rather easily. I don’t get it.
    Something seems amiss.

    1. Most of those trees looked older and if you take note of the root system – minimal. A lot of them looked like they were planted in mass planting projects along roads. Those tends to be future failures. I think this was an example of that. 76 MPH is not exceptional for a storm like that one, maybe a little unusual in summertime for a large scale system (though I have tracked many of those in my career, some of them in summer).

      1. Then we agree. Thank you. Just looked strange to me.
        It’s like the trees went down without a fight. 🙂

        1. Weak trees go down without a fight.

          Not saying that wasn’t a strong storm. It was a beast for summertime.

          Also keep in mind that in this age of media, the collection of a handful of areas with “the most” damage will be made into a collage to make it appear that the “extreme” was true everywhere, when it fact it’s nearly always in a relatively small area, even in the bigger events.

          Then you have a version of what I call the “there = everywhere” bias. If it’s happening here, it must have happened everywhere around there.

          There are TONS of these biases that media (both mainstream and social) take full advantage of to get listens, likes, watches, and clicks. 🙂

          Another example: The “backyard bias”. Yes I coined that one. If it’s happening in my back yard, it’s happening everywhere! 😉

          I got a good example of backyard bias the other day when the location of a fireworks display was having a wonderful evening and a person many miles away said it was a good thing they cancelled (which they did based on a weather app, not a meteorologist), because it was pouring! Except, it wasn’t pouring at the location or anywhere close to it. And it never did for hours before to hours after the show was supposed to happen. 🙂

  5. Logan already has a sea breeze, so not sure how high
    the temperature will get there. So far sea breeze is light, so temps will still climb for now.
    Currently 77 at the airport with dp 68

    78 here with dp 70. If I calculate with temp and wet bulb, I get
    dp = 69.38

    dps across the area are 67 to 72.

  7. Thanks TK.

    The sky is the most blue I’ve seen in quite a while. No smoke or haze for a change.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    JP Dave, TK’s correct to suggest the trees felled by Poly being in a weakened state already. It’s nature’s way, if you will. Also in the animal kingdom, lions go after vulnerable zebra’s, not the young and healthy ones.

    Furthermore, many of the trees that came down were planted during mass plantings along roads and canals, as TK alluded to. Their root systems weren’t fantastic to begin with. Finally, the tree types in the Netherlands are different from the ones here. There you have a lot of poplars, birches, and other smaller deciduous trees.

    I will say this, the strong gale lasted for many hours across the Northwestern and Northern parts of the Netherlands. Sustained winds of 50 – 60 mph can do quite a bit of damage.

    1. We certainly agree on the root system as my feeling is that most “healthy” trees won’t come down in that wind.

      I watched trees almost bending in half during blizzard of 78, the wind was so strong, yet they didn’t come down and haven’t since. Why? well for one thing they were healthy strong trees and of
      course, they were not Foliated being the beginning of February.

      🙂

  13. A belated thought on the importance of Independence Day, and what can be referred to as the great social experiment named America. It’s from a speech made by former President Reagan.

    “And since this is the last speech that I will give as President, I think it’s fitting to leave one final thought, an observation about a country which I love. It was stated best in a letter I received not long ago. A man wrote me and said: “You can go to live in France, but you cannot become a Frenchman. You can go to live in Germany or Turkey or Japan, but you cannot become a German, a Turk, or a Japanese. But anyone, from any corner of the Earth, can come to live in America and become an American.’”

    This, I believe, is one of the most important sources of America’s greatness. We lead the world because, unique among nations, we draw our people — our strength — from every country and every corner of the world. And by doing so we continuously renew and enrich our nation. While other countries cling to the stale past, here in America we breathe life into dreams. We create the future, and the world follows us into tomorrow. Thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we’re a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and always on the cutting edge, always leading the world to the next frontier. This quality is vital to our future as a nation. If we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.”

    – Ronald Reagan, Jan 19, 1989

    1. Reagan was the best leader we’ve had in my lifetime (in my opinion 🙂 )

      He gave America back its confidence (in my opinion)

      2. Personally, since you mentions this, I think Obama was the best president we ever had. Different strokes for different folks. 🙂

        1. JPD, I had a feeling you’d share my sentiments re Reagan. I didnt think it would be that literal so can’t stop laughing. He may be the only person I’ve ever voted for that I will always regret. I like Obama, but for me Ike was the best in my lifetime.

        2. I love Obama and he’s right up there with Reagan for me. I agree much more with Obama’s policies.

          But, at that time, I think Reagan was great and am glad he was our leader.

          2. I’m bad at giving a broad view without a reason. And this is up in the comments. Two Reagan problems we have yet to recover from. Reaganomics started trickling money up to the wealthy and it has never stopped. Homelessness was almost ended in 60s. But when Reagan began closing facilities for mental illness homelessness began to increase and it never stopped.

            I’ll go sit in a corner now, TK

  14. We’re under a severe thunderstorm watch til 11pm tonight.

    A little sun now too, but a whole lot of echoes to our west.

  15. Documented wind gust of 146 km/hr (91mph) was recorded at Ijmuiden, the Netherlands. This occurred over 6 hours ago, but there was a delay in the data being uploaded to the KNMI, or Dutch Royal Meteorological Institute.

  18. 84 here, dp 71

    81 at airport with dp 69 and wind SE at 9 mph.
    Not strong enough to do much here.

  20. The soil moisture conditions last year would have allowed this atmosphere to bring us into the lower 90s in a more widespread fashion.

    The soil moisture conditions currently are only good for middle to upper 80s.

  21. Tom, I see a couple of warning boxes WSW (I think) of you ….Fredericton and St John area.

    1. Thanks Vicki !

      I was just checking too as we just returned from a 2 hr ocean boat tour of the nearby islands.

      My wife just took the kayak out but I suggested to her not to go too far and to get back if the western sky gets dark.

    1. Not out of the question a 3 day “heatwave” possible for those spots.

      And Logan may not get 1 (90F) day.

      Since I predicted 27 at Logan, I protest !!!!! 🙂 🙂

      But it probably still feels like 90F with those coastal dew points.

  23. We made 87 a few minutes ago, back down to 86 now.
    dp 72 which is ridiculous!

    Logan 82 with dp 66

    Here is my calculated dp using temp and wet bulb
    temp 86, wetbulb 75, dp 70.5

  24. Tom, looks like you’re having an interesting trip up in the Maritimes. You’re now 1 hour ahead of us. How does it feel to know things that happen in the world before we do? …

  25. My system has me at 86. No buying it. The HVAC system has us at 94. Definitely. It buying that as I know it is near siding and reflects sun late pm. Nws stations closest to me have 92 and 91. Wunder has 91. I need to figure where to place my sensor. It is spot on 98% of the time but late PM seems off. And I hate not being exact.

  29. Joshua, thanks for sharing that info on the Presidents and weather. I would have guessed that JFK’s inauguration was the coldest. I bet it was the 2nd coldest or at least in the top 5.

  30. Eric F said that for last month Blue Hills Observatory reported the lowest average wind speed of any month on record there.

  32. Too bad that our nation’s birthday isn’t on July 5th. We had very nice weather today. Oh well.

    1. Technically it is the 2nd. So I supposed if the powers that be can move it two days forward, why not three 🙂

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