Thursday July 6 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

The feel of summer is here – high humidity and a bit more heat than we’ve seen. It will be with us into the start of the weekend too as a weak high pressure ridge over the region now shifts to the east while a trough digs into the Midwest. One weak offshore surface low pressure area likely pushes more cloudiness into portions of the region, especially RI and eastern MA, at times on Friday where it won’t be quite as warm as today. With this system offshore and part of a very weak nearly unnoticeable block, it may very likely hold back an approaching frontal system late week into the weekend from the west, keeping the unsettled weather threat minimal until sometime on Sunday. The wildcard day on this forecast is Monday. Not quite sure yet if the increase in the unsettled weather chance on Sunday persists Monday or moves off between 2 more distinctively defined systems. This will be something to monitor over the next few days.

TODAY: Any low clouds/fog dissipating early followed by a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, which would favor interior areas from south central NH to central MA. Highs 84-91, 76-83 coastal areas again coolest Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH except S-SE over eastern MA and RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, which may finally shift back to fair weather by the end of the period. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

76 thoughts on “Thursday July 6 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Last evening Pete was talking about sea breeze induced thunder storms for today and compared our weather to that of Miami Your thoughts on that?

    thanks

    ps

    Does not occur often, but I have seen some pretty juicy sea bree,e induced T storms here in jp.

  5. Thanks TK !

    Aphelion today, furthest from the sun, around 94.5 million miles. If you care for the exact time, 4:06pm 🙂 🙂 🙂

  7. Thanks, TK. Next week looks like more scattered T storms. You see it similar in rain amounts to last week? Wondering about some vacation. Thanks.

    1. Hard to really forecast amounts since you can have 3+ inches in town #1 while town #2 gets 0.00. 🙂

    2. I think it is a bit more complicated that above.
      I am thinking need the following:

      1. The water has to be warm enough (currently 69 at Boston Buoy) My guess is that is marginal to possibly still too cool.
      2. There has to be sufficient moisture. With today’s dew points, I think this condition is satisfied
      3. the sea breeze has to be strong enough to move inland
      to bump into the land breeze to be able to rise. I think today will be too slight a breeze to possibly marginal

      All this goes to TK’s comment of “possibly”

      🙂

      comments?

  13. Quietly the Oakland A’s are no longer “historically bad.”

    We often discuss misuse of terms on this blog in reference to words used to describe weather events, such as “unprecedented” or “historic.”

    Well, the same can be said about how for several months sports writers were wrongly pointing to the Oakland A’s as historically bad. That’s just not the case. They won’t even come close to the record for number of losses in a season (120). In fact, I don’t think they’ll be the worst team in the AL this year. There’s some young talent on that squad, including Esteury Ruiz (43 stolen bases already this season).

    1. Hehehe. You lost me at sports writers. Now if we want to discuss historically bad….too many of them fit the bill

  14. Currently at Logan, temp 82, DP: 73 !!!!!!!!!!!!
    wind ESE at 6 mph. That is NOT strong enough to produce
    sea breeze thunder storms. Perhaps later?
    YUUUUUCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKK!

    83 here. My equipment dew point reads as ASTOUNDING 77 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Calculated based on temp and wet bulb it is:

    76.1

    GIMMIE A BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          1. Then hope whenever you celebrate is special. We just celebrated mine Tuesday and it was tons of fun

  18. In a follow-up to what Vicki said, I think that what happens with sports writers is what happens with many TV meteorologists and TV pundits: They go for the sensationalist take, if you will. It’s always been a feature in the media business. After all, sensationalism sells, while dry facts do not. But it’s gotten worse with the advent of social media and clicks on computers and phones. I’ve been told by publishers who I’ve worked for to enhance my numbers of views by writing “juicy” headlines. I detest this. I don’t write juicy stories, so I don’t want to include juicy headlines. Successful writing should not be a popularity contest. While it’s nice to get lots of views on a particular article, my best work has NOT been my most popular work.

    1. “If it bleeds, it leads. “

      And if it doesn’t, make it up. It is the spins that have no basis, the twisted truths and especially down right lies that I detest. But too many have no heart which to me is unconscionable

      Now, let me tell you what I really think 🙁

    1. Current ocean temp: 70.16 at Boston Buoy, 16 NM due
      East of Boston.

      Dps – check
      ocean temp – check
      sea breeze wind – still marginal or too weak???

      Just trying to figure out IF conditions are there for
      sea breeze thunderstorms. I find this to be
      fascinating.

      I still think the sea breeze needs to be a little stronger.
      We shall see.

      2. I’m curious why you post the Boston water temp to the 1/100th of a degree F, since the sensor is nowhere near that accurate. It reports the SST in tenths of a degree C, with a margin of error of +/- 1.0C. (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/faq/rsa.shtml)

        So, the current SST of 21.6C could actually be 20.6C or 22.6C, a range of 69-73F.

        1. I am just reporting it as reported by NOAA NDBC Station 44013, Why, does it bother you?

          currently 70.52 degrees. 🙂

      1. it is purely MISERABLE here! MISERABLE!!!!!!

        Logan now 82 with dp 72 and EAST wind at 14. Maybe enough????

    2. Used to have that. My kids still do. Getting older has diminished it some. While I am comfortable sitting out in shade, if I didn’t have AC to go into, I’d feel quite sick by EOD. But don’t you work in a health facility? 92?

        1. I started to post and then got side tracked. Your mention of the fourth reminded me. This year was one of the very best I’ve seen. Always love the Boston Pops. I also loved LoCash and their energy even during music that didn’t feature them. And the tribute to ragtime was a great addition.

          1. My husband agreed — he also felt it was one of the best. And I Loved the Ragtime singers.

  22. One cell popper just to my south. This was a sea breeze one.
    Air mass one formed by Woonsocket, RI and is now near Franklin,Medway/Norfolk.

  23. My thermometer says 92F, but it could be off by a degree or two. Yesterday it said 90F, and I think that was too high.

    While it’s hot and humid we’ve been blessed thus far this summer – well, I should only speak for myself – with less heat and humidity than we normally have. So, I’m okay with it, for now.

    2. She looks sweet!
      I rescued a kitten at the esplanade years ago on July 4th; she was with us for over 20 years!

  25. NHC has finally issued the report on the subtropical storm off the East Coast from January. They said it had peak winds of 60 knots, and made landfall in Nova Scotia as a subtropical storm with 45 knots winds before becoming extratropical.

    https://t.co/KfXI19bNY7

  32. give me sunny, 85 with dp 52. now that is what I call nice Summer weather.

    You can flush this 70+ dew point down the toilet!!!!!

      1. Just another two months of this, well, the possibility of this kind of weather on any given day. Oppressive weather is quite unusual after September 10th.

  33. Thanks, TK!

    JPD, always thinking about Mrs. OS on days such as these.
    Hope she’s okay.

  35. TK – Is this persistent high humidity going to last day in/day out until the Autumnal Equinox?

    Even high heat patterns break down with some relief once in a while. This high humidity is getting OLD to say the least. YUCK!!!!!!

    According to Ch. 7, Boston will be in the top 5 for the latest 90 degree day. Maybe they don’t see 90 at all this month?

    1. No. That doesn’t happen in New England. This is just a muggy stretch without persistent heat. It’s “hottish” a few days and it never hangs around. We have been far, far worse before. Even though the media won’t make it seem that way.

      I don’t see any 90+ for Boston as far out as I can confidently look.

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