Friday July 7 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Today’s blog update carries a similar idea to yesterday’s but attempts to fine-tune some of the uncertainty. Today’s weather will be similar to yesterday’s. Low clouds and areas of fog dominate eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA to start the day, but most of this will burn off by mid to late morning. Eventually we’ll see more of a sun/cloud mix with some diurnal cumulus forming. Today’s isolated shower and thunderstorm chance is lower. Where as we popped a half dozen or so in the WHW forecast area, today I’d expect about 3 or fewer, and favoring areas away from the coast. Today’s coastal sea breeze will cool the beaches, but won’t be met with the convergence and instability that yesterday’s was, so that shower / storm trigger will be absent, with just a couple to a few air mass bubble-ups possible inland. Anything that does form fades quickly toward sunset. Some mid to high level cloud patches from a frontal boundary still well to our west can be seen in the western sky later today. Areas of stratus and patchy fog will redevelop tonight as the high humidity continues, but again this will burn off during Saturday morning. The trough and front to our west edges a bit eastward toward our region, very slowly, and during the day Saturday we’ll see more cloudiness in association with it, but directly frontal-driven showers and storms will stay west of the region, with a moist southerly air flow and solar heating contributing to isolated showers and storms, maybe a few more than today, but favoring areas west of the I-95 belt during the afternoon. Again, any of this activity subsides by nightfall, and a repeat of stratus development takes place in portions of the region later at night into Sunday morning. Sunday’s weather should feature some sun but with a mix of clouds too as initially the frontal boundary has limited impact on the region, but as the day goes along, clouds will win the battle and it is by late-day or evening when the shower threat goes up significantly. I do think thunderstorm activity will be limited, most likely over interior locations, with predominantly non-lightning-producing shower activity. A wave of low pressure brings a good shot at a fairly widespread significant showery rainfall to the region into Monday, perhaps for much of that day, with improvement expected as the low moves away Tuesday. Humidity will remain high throughout this time frame although there will be a cooling trend in temperature.

TODAY: Low clouds southern areas burning off by mid to late morning, otherwise sunshine and developing clouds with a chance of a few isolated showers and/or thunderstorms mainly away from the coast this afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH except S-SE over eastern MA and RI.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

A fair weather interlude with weak high pressure in the area early in the period during the middle of next week, followed by another unsettled weather episode with showers / thunderstorms later in the week before improvement during the July 15-16 weekend. No sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough to hang around. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

72 thoughts on “Friday July 7 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    madec92 yesterday at my house.. how high will it go today ?

    Yesterday was the most uncomfortable day in the house so far this season.

    ThAnkfully, we had a few window ac units cranking.

  4. Currently 78 with dp 71 here in JP. (that dp is equipment reported and calculated based on air temp and wet bulb temp)

  5. Has the dp been 65F or higher since at or just after the solstice ?

    Perhaps 2 weeks now ??

    1. I believe so, but I am not certain. My system does not have a chart for dew point, so I cannot compare dailies, but my impression is that the dp has been high for some time now.

        1. Just remember to show up for the first day of classes Tom. I’ve never had the luck of having a substitute on the first day. That always came much later, maybe in October at the earliest. 😉

          Enjoy! 🙂

  7. While parts of Northern Europe have been mostly dry for the past 6 or 7 weeks, with the exception of when Poly hit, Western Ireland has been under the rain gun, if you will, for weeks on end. No change in that as a rather potent area of low pressure meanders to the west of the island without pushing through. High pressure over the middle of the European continent – this time well south of Scandinavia – is preventing the low from doing its normal traverse. While this is good news for places like London, which won’t be showery until perhaps early next week, it’s bad news for county Mayo. With a low stuck in place or moving slowly in a south-to-north direction, Mayo will get rain every day for the foreseeable future. https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Creggaun+Mayo+Ireland?

  8. Thank you, TK. And thanks for the cloud lesson yesterday. We could make that a “quiz” here.

  9. Thanks TK.

    No major high heat but there’s plenty of major high humidity. Not to mention the heat indexes feeling like major high heat. 🙁

    Sometimes I wonder if we’re all that much better off than Texas. At least the discomfort there is straightforward. Last night sleeping was the most uncomfortable so far.

  10. I heard the following via early morning radio:

    Warm planet + El Niño = MAJOR HIGH HEAT

    I was under the impression that we were done with El Niño.

    1. El Niño just got underway

      We’re done with the recent La Niña.

      But that headline is easily taken out of context too.

  11. Thanks TK
    Tom the last day I remember when the dew points were in check was the first day of summer. Since then those dew points have been in the mid 60s or higher. No sign of those dew points coming back into the comfortable range which is 50s or lower. You look at the overnight lows and that is an indicator of what kind of day it is going to be humidity wise. When the overnight lows are in the 50s that is a comfortable airmass when those lows are in the low 60s you start to feel the humidity when the lows are in the mid 60s and higher you are going to be dealing with moderate to oppressive levels of humidity.

    1. Wow. JJ. Another one I don’t recall.

      Hmmmmm…Unless it was the system that produced fairly widespread hail I have to see if I can find my photos from then and check the date. Thank you as always for these

  14. Logan is at 81 with dp 70. Wind SSW.
    Here in JP, it is 80 with dp 71
    Calculated dp = 71

    Hmm, I am wondering IF Logan may briefly touch 90 today?
    We shall see if Logan switches to a sea breeze. It hasn’t yet, but
    could happen at any moment as wind speed is 8 mph.

    1. Too bad we don’t have that April/early May “chill” with the sea breeze. Last I looked water temp was 70. That breeze, no matter how strong is now negligible for all practical purposes.

    1. 86 high today.
      High for the month so far, 87 yesterday.
      No 90+ yet. None in sight.

          1. I’ve only had 1 day and that was yesterday.
            Does NOT look likely today. 🙂
            Still only 83 here. 🙂

          2. The 1st 90s are in and the winners are
            Fitchburg, Nashua and Manchester. 🙂

            82 at Logan
            85 here

  19. As of noon, 70-87 is the temp range across the WHW forecast area.

    Coolest: Nantucket.
    Warmest: Fitchburg.

    1. Indeed. Siasconset (Nantucket – where BB lives with LH), it’s 70F and mostly cloudy, while it’s 87F and mostly sunny in Fitchburg. My guess is the temp increases in Fitchburg to around 90F while it stays at 70F in Sconset.

  20. Thanks, TK!

    My colleague in the World Language department had to miss the first day of school last August as she had to close on her new home! She tried, but could not change the date.

    The record maximum dewpoint in Boston is 79 on July 27, 1940 and August 10, 2001. My source is Weather.gov>Boston/Norton>NWS Boston – Dewpoint Climatology.

    I do not think it has been updated since 2014.

  22. Thanks TK for your response above. I keep getting my “Nino’s and Nina’s”mixed up. 😉

  27. My thermometer says 89F, but it’s a suspect reading I’m sure. Regardless, as I remember from my days in Europe any time it’s above 30C it’s uncomfortably hot. The Dutch call 30C and above “tropical heat,” which doesn’t happen often, especially in the Western part of the country. By the way, their heatwaves are defined as 3 consecutive days of 25C or above (77F).

  29. made 88 i JP

    last 3 days

    88
    92
    88

    Not a heat wave, but with high dew points, BAD enough.

    1. We had very similar temperatures in Lunenburg.
      Wed: 89
      Thu: 92
      Fri: 88

      Not a heat wave here either, but I declare it a sticky wave, with these dew points.
      Wed: 77
      Thu: 79
      Fri: 73

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