Sunday July 9 2023 Forecast (8:34AM)

95 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Clouds are dominant today along with continued high humidity. Fog and stratus will be more persistent in coastal areas as higher clouds above limit the sun’s ability to burn these off, and overall we’ll have a cloudier day today, with limited chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop, restricted to mainly interior locations this afternoon. But any that do form can contain heavy downpours. The frontal boundary that’s been edging closer to the region will be just to our west through today into Monday but a wave of low pressure forming on it will enhance rainfall tonight into Monday. The heaviest thrust of this will be just west of the WHW forecast area where some significant flooding may take place. We’ll have our own round or two of fairly widespread moderate to heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms to swing through here overnight and Monday. There is a potential that the heavier cells can produce damaging wind gusts – something we haven’t seen much of around here lately. Also, the flash flood potential is there with areas of heavy rainfall. It’ll be important to be weather-aware across the region during Monday. As the low pressure wave lifts through northern New England Monday night into Tuesday, things will quiet down, but it may take a while to clear out. We do end up with a better day Tuesday – a sun/cloud mix, still humid, but a much lower chance that anyone sees any rain, maybe just a few isolated showers. High pressure both at the surface and aloft brings a summery day Wednesday without a rain threat – just very warm, lots of sun, and fairly humid. An approaching cold front brings a shower and thunderstorm threat back to the region for Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas west of I-95 during the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but locally strong and gusty winds may occur around any heavier showers/storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers early in the morning. Areas of fog early. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible early in the period, otherwise a drying trend into the July 15-16 weekend with a shower/thunderstorm threat returning before it’s over, and into early the following week as another frontal system moves into the region and hangs around. Humidity likely remains high, but no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Overall pattern of weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

95 thoughts on “Sunday July 9 2023 Forecast (8:34AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    I am ready for those dry intrusions from Canada (minus wildfires). This high humidity is getting very old. I can’t recall going so long without even some brief relief.

    Sun is peaking through as I type this. When I left for work the sky looked like November without the chill.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK,

    This humidity is getting very tiring and more and more difficult
    to deal with each passing day. IT MUST GO!!!!!

  8. I read TK’s thoughts and yesterday’s CFS weeklies for weeks 3 and 4 indicate drier precip outlooks for the northeast, which I would assume correspond to lower humidity opportunities.

    I don’t have enough signal/wifi to get the models to run. 🙂

    Any hint 8-10 days out on the euro for lower humidity opportunities ??

  13. High dew points, but for the most part not high temperatures. While it’s sticky and uncomfortable at times, thus far I find it more manageable than last year. We had so many hot days last summer and that nearly broke me.

    1. In spite of lack of major heat, this summer would go in my top-10 WORST so far. We will see.

      1. Of course should some Canada intrusions arrive in the coming weeks and become more persistent, my top-10 “better” summers. 😉

  15. I just read in today’s Boston Herald that the northern lights are expected to be visible this Thursday in most of NNE. I find it interesting though that they will be visible as far south as Maryland but no mention of SNE. None of those states listed.

    Does this make sense?

    1. It is very humid.

      If we can all make it past the next 2 months, we’ll soon have days when it’s 73F and a dewpoint of 51.

  19. Tom etc. ..
    Yes I am still of the opinion that the higher humidity pattern will be around through all three periods of my forecast above.

    Obviously confidence drops off as time increases. Perhaps we will be able to sneak in a nice bundle of drier Canadian air before the end of the 11-15 day period.

      1. I find it interesting that we have to “sneak” Canadian dry air but Canadian smoke flows like beer at a keg party. Lol. 😀

    1. Thanks Joshua. Now if we can only get the UK to drive on the “proper” side of the road. Also those upper teens/lower 20s seem awfully “chilly” to me. 😉

      Just kidding of course. 🙂

      1. Seriously though, I have no idea what those temps translate into F. I hope they are comfortable and not too hot.

  21. So as always when media gets out of control with a term or terms I will speak about it because often it ends up sending the wrong message.

    Don’t let the sudden over mentioning of wet bulb make you think anything about it is new. Meteorologists have been using the wet bulb temperature for decades. Ironically it is basically the dew point. Go figure…

    But everybody knows what the dew point is so wet bulb sounds more glamorous now in headlines.

    And I’m chuckling even more that heat dome is one of this summer’s buzz phrases. The one that existed in the South, while significant where it was, is much smaller in scope than the big domes of the summers like 1995, 1988, and 1980. They did use heat dome in media in 1995 but that was before relentless hype was out of control. It was used in a much more responsible fashion then.

    This comment addresses issues with overuse and over hype. It is a problem. And it does make it very difficult for the actual meteorologist to explain to people what’s going on and how to understand it.

    I wish they would stop. But they are not going to.

    The reality of stupidity. Kind of like what I saw on the road this morning when I had to witness one person going through a red light to cut off three cars and nearly got slammed in the process. And when the same light turned green the two people waiting in the two lanes just sat there…. And sat there….. And sat there…. Both lanes. Not just one lane. Both. And this is not the first time I have had to wake two lanes of cars up at a green light. It’s becoming a frequent occurrence. People need to get their faces out of their phones when they’re driving. Morons.

    1. Sitting green lights is most annoying. Typically, the dumb dumbs
      are on their phones!()@(&#()!@&#()!&@)(#&)!(@&#!)@(#)!(

      1. Oh, and then after that, I go to the drive thru to pick up mom’s sandwich & coffee, and my coffee, and there is a bit of an odd set-up here, but it’s clearly marked in a spot you have to STOP to allow exiting cars to cross when there are more than a few cars in the drive-thru line. But what does this person do? Pulls right across the CLEARLY & BRIGHTLY PAINTED STOP ZONE and right into the exit lane. Duh!

        Same person couldn’t figure out the concept of paying at window #1 and picking up at window #2 either. The cashier had to spell it out for them………………..

        1. Can’t fix STUPID!!!!!

          On the way to work, I got by a Police station.
          In front of it is about a 15 foot swath of light blue paitn
          with HUGH White lettering: DO NOT BLOCK ENTRANCE!!!!!

          AMAZING how many mornings cars stopped at the red light DO just that!!! BLOCK THE ENTRANCE so Police can’t enter or exit!!

          UNBELIEVABLE!!!!

          1. Ugh, don’t even get me started on that kind of thing. I see it alllllllllllllllllll the time. I just shake my head and smirk now. And a shoulder shrug and I’m on my way to see the next idiot do whatever it is they’re gonna do. 😉

    2. Technically it’s against the law driving while phoning. I suppose police officers do it themselves so it’s rarely enforced. When I use taxis the driver almost always use their phone eventually at some point before my trip is over.

      1. I’ve witnessed officers breaking many of the laws they are out there to enforce.

        Just this week I saw a state trooper, NON-emergency, no lights flashing, obviously in the “I’m a cop so rules don’t apply to me” mode, going at least 80 on a 2-lane road with a 45 MPH speed limit. Granted people tend to travel over that limit, but not generally excessively. This guy was way out of line.

        I’ve seen them on phones and on their mounted laptops while driving. Nope. Bzzzzzzzzt! You don’t get to do that just because you wear a uniform and a badge and drive a fancy car with flashing lights on it. You’re not above any of us.

    2. BTW to clarify above. The wet bulb & dew point are not defined as the same thing, but they are very similar in all conditions we experience. They become separated by a very small amount as temperatures / moisture conditions change.

      I am glad people want to know what the wet bulb is and how it’s calculated. What I dislike is the media using yet another term long-used by myself & my colleagues to glamorize something. I wholeheartedly believe that to be wrong and I will never change my position on it. 🙂 As if I had to remind anyone of that. 😉

  23. Ok a bit of good news…

    Brother moves out of rehab and into assisted living on July 14. Another big adjustment, but this one will lead to the best things yet. 🙂

    And we have a great person lined up to take his dog in and give her the time & care she really deserves. 🙂

  24. TK, I’m in full agreement on the police and their driving. They should obey the rules of the road just as we have to. So, please, police officers use your signals, for example, whether cruising down the street in a non-emergency situation or in an emergency.

  25. Philip, it’s easy nowadays to convert Fahrenheit to Celsius and vice versa.

    In the 80s, when I lived in Europe, I’d manually use the formula: °F = (°C × 9/5) + 32.

    Nowadays, just Google any Celsius temperature you’d like to convert and you’ll get the Fahrenheit equivalent.

    The other day I was watching an older BBC weather person, and she added Fahrenheit temps after giving the Celsius projected temps. In the comments section, I read some snarky remarks like “How old do you think we are to include Fahrenheit. None of us know what the heck that means.” I’m paraphrasing. The older generation in England does know what Fahrenheit means, but it is not something anyone under 60 really knows anymore.

      1. I generally keep in mind the following
        0 = 32
        21 Approx 70
        32 Approx 90

        Interpolate in between for a quick and dirty feel for the
        Fahrenheit equivalent.

      2. One of the few things the U.S. government got right and not adapting to “those” scales of temperature and measurement.

        C, kg, mg, l, km, ml etc. Y-U-C-K!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        I remember the 1970’s trying to convert in Math classes. Drove me crazy not to mention my grade/test scores. 😉

        2. Actually, the metric system is more efficient. We should have converted when the extreme majority of the world did.

  27. Does anyone know that often police use their cellphones while driving because they can have an incident related discussion that is not on a public frequency? In most cases police are exempt from the hands free for that reason.

    Are they driving too fast because they are power hungry. Maybe. Is that the majority? No. Do folks in every single line of work take advantage? You can bet your life in it. Is it the majority? No.

    Are Mets held to a higher standard where the whole is blamed for the few? Yes. Does anyone who understands weather agree with that concept? No. Are police held to a higher standard where the whole is blamed for the few? Yes.

    Me? With a dad who was in law enforcement and a son who is,.I just pray daily that everyone who wears blue …as well as every one of our first responders…can return home safely at the end of the day

    Please understand that I’m not directing this at any one person. It is clear it is a very sore subject for me. But that shouldn’t be a surprise as I react the same when Mets are criticized. In truth I react the same when any whole is faulted for what are faults of a few.

  29. Joshua, don’t let my comments discourage you from posting those UK forecasts. I can try to approximate their temperature profiles in my head. 🙂

  30. So far today is much sunnier than I expected. 🙂

    Getting out the door this morning I wasn’t even expecting any sky brightening.

    Are you even surprised TK?

    1. The partial sun is not a surprise. This is why I went for a mostly cloudy day and not an overcast one. The sun is certainly not dominant but it is there at times. Just a few dozen miles to our west it is a completely different story.

  31. Here are descriptions of wet bulb temperature via general poem, ode, and haiku, thanks to ChatGPT.

    In the realm of meteorology’s domain,
    Where temperatures fluctuate, rise, and wane,
    Lies a concept with a cooling refrain,
    The wet bulb temperature, its story to explain.

    Imagine a thermometer, reliable and true,
    Enveloped in a cloth with moisture’s dew,
    Evaporating water, a mystical brew,
    Bringing about a change, as the process ensues.

    With air temperature and humidity combined,
    The wet bulb temperature, an index we find,
    A measure of comfort, to our bodies inclined,
    And heat stress, the risks it can help us define.

    When the air is dry, the wet bulb is low,
    Evaporation abounds, a refreshing show,
    But if moisture saturates, its pace will slow,
    The wet bulb rises, its numbers start to grow.

    Heat-related illnesses, it warns us about,
    A guide through scorching days, without a doubt,
    As we gauge the heat index, we hear its shout,
    A poem of caution, a whisper, a devout.

    In the world of weather, it holds a role,
    Unveiling potential storms that may unroll,
    A barometer for atmospheric control,
    Thunderstorms and rain, it seeks to extol.

    So, let us honor the wet bulb’s worth,
    A meteorological gem since its birth,
    A concept of science, finding purpose and berth,
    In poems and verses, its story we unearth.

    —————————————————

    Ode to the Wet Bulb

    Oh, Wet Bulb Temperature, thou humble gauge,
    Revealing truths within thy cooling stage.
    In meteorology’s vast domain,
    Thy presence brings insight, a meteoric refrain.

    With cloth-clad thermometer, thou dost appear,
    A mystical dance of water, calm and clear.
    As droplets evaporate, thy secret unfolds,
    A measure of comfort, as thy tale is told.

    In realms of heat, thy wisdom holds sway,
    A guide for human bodies, day by day.
    When dryness prevails, thy value doth decrease,
    Evaporation’s dance, bringing solace and ease.

    But when humidity reigns, a different tune,
    Thou riseth high, under summer’s moon.
    A warning, a reminder, of heat’s embrace,
    Potential risks revealed, caution finds its place.

    Heat stress, heat index, thy purpose unveiled,
    As temperatures rise, thy voice never failed.
    Thou art the guardian of well-being’s call,
    Through scorching days, protector of us all.

    Not limited to comfort, thou art endowed,
    In meteorological lore, thou hast vowed,
    To unveil storms brewing, in skies above,
    Thy presence, a herald, of thunder’s glove.

    Oh, Wet Bulb Temperature, thy essence profound,
    Within thy humble measure, truths are found.
    From human comfort to weather’s fierce might,
    Thy significance shines, a beacon of light.

    So, let us raise a toast to thee, Wet Bulb,
    A symbol of wisdom, never to dull.
    In poems and odes, thy praises we sing,
    With reverence and awe, to thee, we cling.

    ———————————————————-

    Wet bulb’s gentle touch,
    Whispers comfort in the air,
    Heat’s secret revealed.

  32. Temperature made it to 81 and now has fallen back to 76
    feeling the effects of that EAST wind. 🙂

  33. TK, thanks for the forecast and VERY GOOD to hear about your brother!

    As for drivers, I often go White Mountain climbing in the summer and some trails are rated hard/difficult/dangerous. But they are nothing compared to the drivers who are gawking at mountains and mountain tops while driving. It is just plain scary.

  34. Now down to 74 here with that EAST wind. Feels great!
    Now to get the cool air in the house.

    Just installed AC #3.

    1. Oh boy. Mac’s cousin and her husband are at their place in Stowe. I’ll send this to them. Thank you

  40. Cheshire County in NH has biggest threat now. Flooding I think in Winchester area. There are road closures.

    1. Yep. I’d be first off. And they wouldn’t have to pay me. I do like Steve’s comment tho.

  43. Sox sweep the A’s and have won 8 out of last 9. I am trying to remain an optimist for the team’s outlook this season.

    2. They’re doing exactly what I said they’d do, and performing better than expectation.

  44. Red Sox only two games out of the last wild card spot.
    Just had a heavy downpour move through but this is nothing compared to what areas north of me have been dealing with. Radar estimates near Goshen to Norfolk were in the 5-6 inch range.

  47. TK – I actually thought that “mostly cloudy” and “overcast” were one in the same. I never heard of a “mostly cloudy” forecast with as much sun as we got today. In the end wouldn’t the sky cover be considered “partly sunny” overall?

    1. “mostly” and “completely” are not the same thing.

      “Mostly cloudy” implies that breaks of sun can occur.
      “Cloudy” and “overcast” do not.

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