Monday July 10 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

Ingredients are in place for a significant rain event today in the Northeast. Here in the WHW forecast area we’ll be luckier than the heavier rain areas west of the Connecticut River Valley from northern CT through western MA and especially VT, and adjacent eastern NY, where rainfall amounts of up to double-digit totals cannot be ruled out, and flooding may rival that of Tropical Storm Irene in August 2011. The rainfall amounts and flood threat will drop off as you head eastward, but we can still see some heavy enough rainfall for at least minor to locally moderate flooding, more of the poor drainage and small stream variety. Most of this will take place from later this morning through this afternoon as waves of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms move through. This is in response to a wave of low pressure moving northward along an inverted trough just to our west, tapping tropical moisture in place. While the risk is very low, some of the embedded heavier showers / thunderstorms can produce damaging wind gusts, and there’s an even lower but non-zero risk of low level rotation in isolated heavier cells that could lead to a brief relatively weak tornado. Low pressure will then start to lift northward and the shower activity will come to an end from southwest to northeast this evening and tonight. Some areas of rather dense fog around this morning may return again during tonight as the temperature and dew point match. Tuesday, we’ll see improvement with some at least partial clearing, but I can’t rule out one more passing shower or two from west to east as the trough line swings eastward behind the departing low, but in general it’ll be a much nicer day than today, although still on the muggy side. Wednesday, high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft, and while it will “bring the heat”, relatively speaking, it will also drop the dew point slightly – maybe some of you will notice it, but it will be somewhat counteracted by the hotter temperatures with a few lower 90s for highs, while most areas peak in the upper 80s, and some coastal areas are a little cooler due to a sea breeze that likely develops. Enjoy that fair weather interlude if you can, because the overall pattern is still unsettled, and the next trough and frontal system will approach Thursday and Friday when the chance of showers and thunderstorms goes up again, along with the humidity, although the heat will be held in check.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some with heavy rain. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but locally strong and gusty winds may occur around any heavier showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers end. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of fog early. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

The July 15-16 weekend will be warm and humid with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms with a weak trough of low pressure around. This general pattern continues into next week as well. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

Overall pattern of weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

79 thoughts on “Monday July 10 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)”

    1. Well, it’s not raining where I am right now, so I guess not. 🙂 But that’s only going to last about 10 more seconds… HAHA

        1. I love weather as we all do but this just makes me feel sick. Thank heavens some Mets got through word out to at least some to prepare.

  10. Thanks TK! Thoughts on the weather for the Lake George, NY area this week? Particularly Wednesday through Saturday? We have a vacation planned in the area, thanks!

    1. AceMaster is this the first time you are going to Lake George? If so enjoy. I went there in 2020. Plenty of mini golf courses there for the kids. I golfed a real nice 9 hole golf course called Bay Meadows which is the next town over in Queensbury. I highly recommend the boat cruise on Lake George.

      1. I want to college near Albany so I used to go to LG frequently. First time taking the kids. We’re staying at the Great Escape Lodge so if it rains we have instant indoor fun but didn’t really plan anything else in case we hit bad weather. Hiking and Kayaking were both on our list but mini golf is a good idea!

  11. While parts of the northeast are dealing with flooding that was not the case 34 years ago today. Multiple tornadoes touch down in the northeast that day including one that came through my area. I was five years old at the time and it was my first weather memory. My mom and I were home as the tornado came through just after 5pm and knocked down the tree in the front yard. Thankfully no damage done to the house. The strongest tornado was an F4 in Hamden, CT. I call this the benchmark of severe weather outbreaks for the northeast.

    https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/the-1989-tornado-outbreak/73068/

    1. How scary for you and your mom, JJ. Thank you for sharing. I am surprised that I don’t recall this.

  12. https://twitter.com/eweather13/status/1678398025008308225?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://twitter.com/skimagicvt/status/1678378295132291073?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A. Areas of VT-100 and 103 along with other roads that snake through VT are closed.

    Moving to CT
    From chris lambert

    Radar estimates 2-4” with this band of downpours in CT. We’ll watch it for flash flood potential as it slides into RI and parts of MA over next few hours.

    https://twitter.com/clamberton7/status/1678390491635761153?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

  13. Vicki that was the second tornado my mom went through. There was one in Waterbury in the 1963 that happened just before my mom grandparents and uncle were ready to eat dinner. They all went to the basement. The only damage to the house was shingles off the roof.

  14. The pattern will do what it will do ………

    This extremely wet stretch makes western areas susceptible to another flood should a tropical system track across eastern New England.

    Those tropical system tracks tend to drop multi inch rains in western New England.

    1. Good thing the season will be held back by El Niño. Lessens the chance with fewer storms. At least a little.

  16. That convergence on that line coming up through Rhode Island looks concerning for flowing in from different directions.

    1. I’m not sure what that means. Son and DIL’s RI property borders the blackstone river canal and technically river also. So was passing your info along to him at work

      1. The heaviest of that line, that’s currently coming through Warwick and Cranston, looks like it’s making a beeline towards you, North.

        1. Yup! I will let you know how it goes.

          Vicki, I was referring to the precip flowing in from the SE and the SW and converging into that one line. No rotation that I can see though.

    1. That area looking very vulnerable to very bad news. All kinds of watches and warnings and now “catastrophic”! Ugh!!

  18. https://imgur.com/a/899peZz

    “The iconic Vermont Route 100 corridor, along and near the spine of the Green Mountains where most of the ski areas are located, could be in the most trouble Monday afternoon. More than a month’s worth of rain in six hours or less.”

    All 5 of Vermont’s NBC5 Mets are working today.

    1. Roads closed as if 6:30 am. Has to be worse now

      List of Current VT State Road Closures – UPDATED Monday 7/10/23 at 6:30AM:

      US-2 in Middlesex from Lower Sunny Brook Rd to Cross Rd is CLOSED due to flooding.
      US-5 in Barton from Industrial Park to VT-58 has ONE LANE closed due to flooding.
      VT-155 in Mt. Holly from Straight Rd to VT-100 is CLOSED due to flooding.
      VT-16 in Barton from Exit 25 to Water St is CLOSED due to flooding.
      VT-103 in Mt. Holly at Station Road is CLOSED due to flooding.
      VT-100 Ludlow south of the village is CLOSED due to flooding.
      VT-103 in Ludlow is CLOSED due to flooding in the village.
      VT-30 in Winhall near Stoney Hill Road is CLOSED due to flooding.
      VT-30 in Jamaica near West Hill Road South is CLOSED to all traffic due to a washout and flooding.
      VT-100 in Weston near the intersection of VT-155 is CLOSED due to flooding.
      US-4 in Killington near the Skyship CLOSED due to landslide that occurred on July 7.
      VT-100 in West Bridgewater at US-4 to Farm and Wilderness Rd is CLOSED due to a washout.

  21. Hope that line coming up from the south continues to fade to the east. Modest .6 inch so far today in Natick. Is there anything else coming later today. Looks fairly clear on radar. Thanks.

  25. Are heavy t storms forecast for around dinner time? Looks like it on ch.5 but radar seems to be clearing.

  26. Just OPENED ALL the windows in the house (well all that do not have an AC in them). So HUMID, it’s DISGUSTING!!!!!

    1. And no, nothing happened to Jack White. He was just expressing anger at those who are engaging with the orange man.

  29. We’re on the “lucky” side of this one folks.
    A winter-like set-up where a pivot of the heavy rain occurs over an area that doesn’t need it. Anomalous in that it doesn’t happen all that often. So any one particular area doesn’t get it too often, and the result is there is quite a bit to damage when it does occur. That’s VT today. Wish them the best.

    I walked out of work into a drenching downpour, and coming from a 90 degree kitchen in a t-shirt and no hat – walked with my face to the sky. I LOVED every second if it. I can’t wait to walk in a downpour (without lightning threat) again. Next time swim trunks, sandals, no hat, and a shirt that is meant to get wet.

    BTW current radar. That narrow strip of intense rain is due to some convergence in eastern CT, central MA, southwestern NH, eastern VT. It will crawl eastward and even tho it’s narrow, it can create quick flooding. Some embedded thunder can occur but this is low-topped convection. However, it does have the potential to create a small-scale tornado or burst of non-rotating wind. Although unlikely, it’s a non-zero chance.

  30. We had to stop at the Charlton Plaza to wait it out till we could see the road again. Thanks, TK, for the heads up so I knew to be ready to pull over!

  32. We just went through that line you talked about TK, the rain was torrential. The water actually spilled over my gutters and they aren’t even clogged, they just couldn’t handle the amount. I just checked my weather station and in 20 minutes I picked up 1.28”. WOW! Was fun to watch.

  33. We have had sun for a bit..some filtered some not. I think that line will either diminish considerably if it reaches us or short N maybe NNE by us.

    1. I am willing to bet almost anything that the line doesn’t not
      hold together to the coast. STILL a persistent EAST wind here
      and we know what that does to convection.

      We shall see.

      1. This isn’t classic convection in that sense, but the further away it gets from its initiation point, it will be less potent and in more of a transition stage. The short range guidance (HRRR) did not show a narrow line of intense convection right to the coast. That part of it will now shift south (northern RI and adjacent MA) where the warmest air and best convergence combination is.

      2. It seemed to strengthen as it got here. And we are in the middle. Wonder if sun being out here fed it.

        But I do remember too many times in Framingham having lines fizzle. Good luck

          1. Not surprised. The southern tip of the line was weakening; and then when I looked a short time later, it had gained considerably. We only got .65 with a total of 1.91 since midnight

    1. Not good.

      I briefly had wifi a couple hrs ago and saw some of Eric Fishers posts related to Vermont. Water in and running through towns and if I remember correctly, one about the entrance to Okemo.

      Well, downstream here, it’s been warm and humid with decent sun and in the low 80s.

      1. You are right about Okemo. I thought I’d posted that Eric showed many rivers are close to Irene level and at least one will pass it

        1. Hopefully, the next 2 days will give the smaller streams/rivers time to subside a lot, in time for the next surge of humidity and showers/storms.

            1. Thanks ! It’s my wife. She finds all these places to go.

              So nice to get back here in the Maritimes. (NB, NS and now Cape Breton)

        1. Logan has a shot. They will need to keep a sea breeze away. The wind field will be weak enough to allow those. So they can hit it (probably 90 or 91) without a sea breeze, or if they have one and it lets go late in the afternoon. It’s not going to be extremely hot inland either (lower 90s for max temps), so the heat reservoir won’t be extensive – but just enough – for Boston to jump to 90 if a sea breeze switches back to a land one late afternoon. If I had to guess right now: 89.

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