Tuesday July 11 2023 Forecast (7:25AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

While the overall pattern of high humidity and frequently unsettled weather doesn’t change, we do get into one of those “break” periods today and Wednesday. The anomalous low pressure area that brought substantial rainfall just west of our region with major flooding and a pretty good couple swaths of downpours to our area with more moderate flooding in some locations has lifted to the north. A slightly drier westerly air flow will now be with us today into Wednesday, with a tiny edge taken off the humidity. But compensating for this will be a boost in temperature. Boston’s Logan Airport (where the official temperature is taken for the city) has yet to hit 90 this year and has an outside shot of finally doing so on Wednesday. This will largely depend on whether or not a light sea breeze kicks in there long enough to prevent it. Either way, a nice couple of summer days coming up in comparison to recent weather and past frequently unsettled conditions. There will be some cloudiness around eastern MA and southern NH to start the day – wrap around clouds behind the departing low pressure area. Otherwise just some passing fair weather clouds will be around today. Tonight, some fog patches may form in interior lower elevations where temperatures can fall more easily to match the moderately high dew points. This burns off quickly early Wednesday and we just see some more pop up cumulus clouds, a couple of which can grow enough to produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly in interior southern NH and north central MA in the afternoon. Any of these that do occur will be of short duration. And then nature reminds us that we are not really out of the overall weather pattern we’ve been in for quite a while, when the next low pressure trough moves in Thursday into late week with another increase in shower and thunderstorm chances. Of the 3 days Thursday through Saturday, Friday looks like the most active one at this time, but will need to monitor trends on shorter-range guidance as we get closer.

TODAY: Early clouds southern NH and eastern MA, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon interior southern NH and north central MA. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

Shower and thunderstorm chances higher every other day (July 16, 18, 20). A pattern of high humidity but a lack of major heat continues through mid month.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

Similar pattern to start the period, but finally a break-down of a persistent blocking pattern at high latitudes may occur enough to allow a drier air intrusion from Canada later in the period.

52 thoughts on “Tuesday July 11 2023 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  4. Although still humid,
    the reduction of the dp is noticeable, at least to me. our dp here in jp is 65.

  6. Thanks, TK. It is good to see a day where hopefully VT and all flooded areas can begin to address the danage

  7. https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1678703635503411201?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

    Jim Cantore.,,, Dear God! From City of Montpelier FB page

    City of Montpelier, VT – City Government
    1h.©
    Potentially Dangerous Situation
    The Wrightsville Dam only has 6 feet of storage capacity left. If water exceeds capacity, the first spillway will release water into the North Branch River. This has never happened since the dam was built so there is no precedent for potential damage. There would be a large amount of water coming into Montpelier which would drastically add to the existing flood damage. This will be particularly bad along the North Branch River corridor and into the downtown.

    Unfortunately, there are very few evacuation options remaining. People in at risk areas may wish to go to upper floors in their houses.

    The Clty has asked for swift water rescue assets to be moved into the area to assist when possible,

    As a precaution the City is moving the dispatch center to the Water Treatment Plant where we have already established operations jointly with Barre City. We will also move our full Emergency Operations Center to the Treatment Plant as well. Computer and radio systems at the Police Station may become incapacitated if floodwaters increase.

    Again, could be a dangerous situation.

    1. Not that I should complain, but notice how the risk NEVER makes it to the coast. Well, it does sometimes, but I mean often it does not. 🙂

      1. Curious. I notice the risk makes it to the north shore. Is it more more southern location or coastal or both?

            1. I was looking at Thursday, Sorry. I See what you mean. For whatever reason, better instability.
              Farther away from any ocean influence to our South?

  12. This year when the risk does make it to the coast it is a level 1 marginal risk. SPC has five levels
    Level 1 Marginal
    Level 2 Slight
    Level 3 Enhanced
    Level 4 Moderate
    Level 5 High
    It is not often were in a level 3 or higher. The last moderate risk was back in 2018 for western parts of CT.

  16. Dew points in the mid 60s don’t feel so bad after that stretch of dewpoints in the oppressive category.

  20. 87F where I am, but thermometer may be off by a degree. It’s much too warm for me, but not as hot as last year.

      1. Mac’s cousin is at their place in Stowe. So far so good there. And in Waterbury which took a huge hit from Irene. But it is horrific just south of there.

    2. Thanks JJ. The governor mentioned this in the press conf I saw this am. He said the corrections to failures during Irene seem to be working. So far. The are seeing more structural issues now. I’ve been out so have not seen events today.

  25. Wankum has 92F for Boston tomorrow.

    Tomorrow July 12, 2023 I believe would be #5 latest 90 for Boston.

    The latest 90 (#1) for Boston = July 30, 1947.

  26. Vicki, my concern for Vermont is that the pattern isn’t really changing much. More rain on the way later this week, albeit not large amounts. Locally, however, heavy downpours could wreak havoc on already waterlogged areas. Then, if we do get a tropical storm that rips through New England at some point, it could really do damage to Vermont.

      1. Sorry was interrupted.

        The fact the pattern doesn’t seem to want to change is what prompted his comment that so far they are not seeing failures in the areas they addressed after Irene failures. However, if there is more rain added, there is no way to tell how long the “fixes” will hold. Very loosely worded in my part

    1. Really good explanations. The met links the weather here (North America) and the weather that occurs across the British isles. Explains intensification of the low pressure area that will affect Britain on Friday. Could be another strong storm.

    1. We should also invest in better communication of REAL information and less hype in news / weather. Of course that won’t happen. 🙂

  30. Finally seeing the signs of a pattern break-down around July 20 when the chilly/dry weather driven Greenland block breaks down as that ridge weakens and slides to the east into the North Atlantic. This will allow the trough that sits over and just to our west creating the high humidity and frequent rain to de-amplify and move into the Northeast, but far enough east to allow a general drying trend both in rainfall and humidity.

    NOTE: This is not a switch to a completely dry pattern, but one that will feature quick-moving systems and not things like we’ve been seeing recently, and shots of low dew point air.

    Formerly hot central Canada has cooled considerably which will be part of the pattern that keeps sustained significant heat from occurring even when the pattern changes later this month.

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