Friday July 14 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

The general pattern remains the same – frequently unsettled, often humid, no major heat. This is being driven primarily by a blocking high pressure in the area of Greenland that has been happy to hang around there for weeks, and will be doing so for at least another 5 days (and likely beyond that too). This keeps a trough in our region, with episodic showers and thunderstorms being more likely every other day (today, Sunday, Tuesday). On the in-between days (Saturday and Monday), the chance is lower and any activity that does occur will tend to be isolated with most areas dry.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Most sun this morning except Cape Cod which will have showers and thunderstorms early to mid morning. Least sun this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible to probable anywhere, a few of which can be strong. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Transition to a slightly less unsettled pattern begins as the Greenland block weakens. A couple showers and thunderstorm chances favor mid to late period with one or two disturbances coming from the west in quicker-moving zonal flow pattern. No sustained major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

A weaker version of the “summer-so-far” pattern with a few shower and thunderstorm chances but not quite as active, and no sustained major heat.

89 thoughts on “Friday July 14 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  2. Hood morning and thank you TK

    Does the slight change in the pattern allow for any dry sir?
    than you.

  11. Thanks TK!

    Yup, a noisy early morning indeed, Philip. I think we may have had three different storms since midnight. 0.75″ of short-lived downpours in the bucket.

    We may not have to wait to this afternoon. There’s a warned storm heading in your direction, Vicki. And there’s an impressive cell south of Block Island with its eyes on Buzzards Bay.

    1. The Severe Thunderstorm Warning you mentioned Captain is affecting parts of Hartford and Tolland counties. That storm was looking healthy around Wolcott and now has become a warned thunderstorm.

    2. I thought I had heard thunder in the night a couple of times but then wondered if I dreamed it.

    1. I can’t even agree with that. That is HORRIBLE!!!

      30C is only 86
      what’s wrong with 86 and sunny? PERFECT Summer’s day, imho,
      UNLESS the dew point is 75. 🙂

  15. Sure looks like we’re going to get WET all over Eastern SNE.
    Quite a blob of rain heading this way out of central and Eastern
    CT. Will be watching. At this point I don’t expect anything
    severe, other than torrential rainfall.

      1. That is a good thing there moving right along and not sitting over the same area. The other thing to watch is any training of these thunderstorms where they go over the same area. The way it has been so wet lately it that could lead to some localied flooding.

  16. The warning for the storm for Hartford and Tolland counties has expired. A lot of lightning with these thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall. So far I am not seeing any flood warnings posted.

  17. No, still the same outlook. Remember I didn’t tout it as a huge pattern change.

    It’s a change that weakens the block, allows more momentum of systems and drier air intrusions.

  18. 86F has gotten too hot for me, JP Dave. I’m kind of toast when it’s above, say, 78F. I still feel sick from my outdoor activities this week and it wasn’t that hot. My siblings, who are doctors, mentioned that some of their patients develop heat intolerance as they age and that I could have that. Maybe. I don’t know.

  19. These high dew points fueling these heavy downpours with so much moisture available. All eyes on Sunday once we get past today.

  21. Rather gray in Paris during Bastille Day celebrations. What caught my attention is that Indian fighter jets – I believe they’re (Dassault) Rafales, all purchased from France, of course – did the traditional flyovers. I’ve been watching Bastille Day flyovers for decades. I can’t recall ever seeing a foreign air force do the flyovers. Makes sense, by the way, that India has purchased Rafale jets from France. They’re certainly better than the MiGs and SUs from Russia, which India had been buying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OD72DAINUx8

  22. Norton NWS discussion excerpt for this afernoon:

    Deep layer shear 30-35 kt with moderate instability supports
    storm updraft organization with potential for severe hail, and
    potential for severe wind as storms become surface based. Heavyrainfall and flash flooding obviously a big concern as well in high PWAT airmass with deep warm cloud depths, considering recent heavy rainfall making area more susceptible to additional heavy rain.

  24. Thanks, TK.

    Very dark in Sudbury. Thundering out. Somewhat windy, too. Some light rain. Radar shows some red. Heavy stuff evidently heading our way.

  25. It now looks like my area will SPLIT the uprights
    with the heaviest activity passing just N&W of me and moderate activity passing S&E of me while I remain DRY in the middle.

    Can’t tell you HOW many times that has happened.

    AMAZING!!!

    2. Ditto here. Slid by us. Thunder, lightning and all. We do have a half inch from storms last night…..all but one that I slept through
      🙁

  26. My understanding is that possible convection later
    this afternoon “MAY” be the main event and this morning’s
    activity was just an appetizer. We shall see.

    1. Seems it. We had some thunder early this morning w/a brief downpour. The thunderstorm that is on its way out(I think) the heavy rain has stopped but the thunder is Really loud. And the rain wasn’t that heavy this morning. Some of these thunderstorms sure seem angry!

    1. What I find interesting is that most of the U.S. was cooler than normal and the HOT spots were most of Canada and Antarctica, of all places.

        1. Saw a story last night where some place in South Florida
          had a OCEAN water temperature of 98.1!

          Now that is TOASTY for sure!

  28. I have feeling that we are DONE with the activity for today.
    I think all of the overnight, wee hours and this morning’s activity has drained the atmosphere of all the energy.

    So far, NOTHING showing up on radar West of the city.
    Some minor activity just about to move off shore is al
    that is left.

  30. Bright sunshine here now!
    Did I speak too soon. I guess we’ll now within an hour or 2. 🙂

    1. It gets that warm in Nova Scotia? I always think of Canada
      as the Arctic! 🙂 🙂 🙂 No, not really.

      1. It can, occasionally.

        What’s making it harder to adjust is that it was drizzly, windy and in the low-mid 60s yesterday, so, it feels like a shock to the system today.

  33. Brother’s move is done!
    Now just an adjustment period.

    His adorable dog has been putting up with many hours alone while 2 of us split care 7 days a week since Feb 3. This weekend she’s going to someone who can care for her as much as she needs and deserves! It’s what’s best for her.

    This is Tuukka having some play time earlier this year. She’s blind in one eye but gets along well!

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/QTApAhVYbxhxMWy98

    2. Hope your brother continues to make improvement with each passing day.

      And happy for Tuukka.

      Maybe, if it works for both of them, they will get to see each other soon.

  34. Sunday ……

    Impressive moisture available at all levels.

    Curious to see Sunday dew points in southern New England.

    Could be highest to date or wonder if for the whole warm season ??

  38. TK, you were right about Vermont. It wasn’t hit as hard. No flash floods reported. At least I didn’t see a report. They did have storms, but everything held. Now the legitimate concern is Sunday’s rain event. We shall see.

    1. I think Sunday will hit them a little harder, but not as bad as the first big event.

    2. Yikes I hope it isn’t as bad but any will add horribly to the meds. I spoke to Mac’s cousin today. She is home from Stowe. It was tough finding roads open. It is pure devastation.

      Scott continues to say the improvements they made post Irene are holding. Business and residential devastation is the focus this time.

  39. Phoenix has hot 110 or more every day since June 30. They are going for a record. Nighttime temps have not dropped below 90 the last few nights. Yes, it is urban heat island. But the last 11 days are the hottest globally in record since 1979….we do not have global temps earlier than 1979.

    Nothin to see here folks

  40. When Hunga Tonga erupted, scientists wondered what the result of a volume of water vapor injected into the upper atmosphere would be, in contrast to the other major land eruptions which added dust/ash to the atmosphere. They suspected that the increase in water vapor may have the opposite effect, after an initial cooling, which we did see, that it may warm. I think we’re seeing that impact now after the initial, and brief, cool-down.

    https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/

    1. The Tonga eruption could impact global temps for five years. No one is really sure. The scary part is that thanks to humans, we have already been setting heat records in the two plus decades of this century. Those were before Tonga. So if it does affect heat, it may truly shove those records into overdrive and put us closer to the point of no return.

      Worst part is our politicians will use this to spend more time on denial.

      1. they already unfortunately are. The thing is this country has started to get to many crazy stupid people. Of course there are smart, sane people but the crazy stupids are getting to much of a voice.

          1. Yes, but if you read the story, this is the first one we have documented that instead of a large amount of ash/dust, it’s water vapor (because of the underwater eruption). Have they happened in earth’s history, yes, many many MANY times, but we like to think we’ve been around for most of it. We’ve been around for a miniscule segment of earth’s history and we know very little. 🙂 But we do know this is the first time we’ve gotten to see it on this scale “live” as it happens. 🙂

            The quick theories were that we’ll cool at first (which we did briefly) and then could likely warm (which is ongoing now, and potentially though temporarily up to 1.5C).

            1. The question is will we remain at the excessive heat since we were already heating above average pre Tonga

        2. Matt. It is not a surprise. Climate deniers will grab anything and run with it. And you are so right that there are many very knowledgeable folks. But the tail keeps wagging the dog

  41. TK – Will the upcoming “Canadian” intrusions outnumber the “humid” intrusions or vice versa?

    1. Hmmm
      seems to me that there would be a bit more risk than that.
      Let’s see how it looks with the next update.

    1. That was a very impressive one and made it a long distance. The remains of it went by my area (I was in Medford) that morning.

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