Saturday July 15 2023 Forecast (8:45AM)

85 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

Yesterday the every-other-day unsettled pattern meant 3 out of 5 days were more unsettled. Today, it’s only 2 out of 5. HAHA!! Today, there is a temporary exception in a day that will carry much less of a chance of showers and storms and see most areas rain-free for the entire day, and that is the Islands and Outer Cape Cod, which have heavy showers and storms around early to mid morning before they head out. Otherwise, a couple of isolated showers may pop up today in an otherwise cloud/sun mix, mainly rain-free, but humid day. Not too bad compared to many days we’ve had so far this summer. But tomorrow, with the help of a frontal boundary moving in from the west and an abundant amount of moisture available, the shower and thunderstorm threat goes up and will be fairly widespread in coverage. There is concern for flooding issues due to the heavy rainfall. The good news is this system moves along enough so that we get back into a break Monday. We do follow it up with another shower/storm threat Tuesday, and see another break on Wednesday as systems start to move a little more efficiently west-to-east. This is due to a weakening of the long-standing Greenland blocking high pressure. Something you often hear about in winter, but it can occur during the warm season as well.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely Islands to Outer Cape Cod through mid morning, otherwise isolated showers possible anywhere this afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Torrential rainfall and flash flooding likely in some areas. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

A more limited chance of showers/storms but still there are a couple disturbances pass by on a more westerly flow. No major heat of the sustained variety.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

A similar pattern will continue late into the month – a few opportunities for showers/storms but a little less active overall, and no major sustained heat.

85 thoughts on “Saturday July 15 2023 Forecast (8:45AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    The YUCKORAMA continues day after day after day.
    I can’t stand too much more of this!!!!

    Currently 80 here with dp 75 !!!! heat index: 86

    Logan 81 dp 72

    Seems to me, temperatures may over achieve today.
    We shall see. HOPE NOT because with these dew points,
    that could be dangerous!

    1. Lower dew points are coming. I can’t wait, Looking at the CFS, you can see them just outside of the 10 day starting to happen here and there with more humid days for few days at a time and not a month at a time. This humidity really gets to me. I hope your wife is doing ok.

        2. So sorry to hear that. I have noticed that even when it was not sunny or raining it was still so damp out. So far, this summer may not be that hot but the humidity just continues. Hoping for a nice cold front to come through with sunny skies and low humidity.

    2. Temps are not really over-achieving any day. It doesn’t wanna be that hot around here, or around most of the US (other than that one relatively small area so far).

    1. Another one I don’t remember. My guess is I was well aware of it though as it would have rattled the horses

      Thank you, JJ

  6. Thanks, TK. Agree with JPD that this pattern is played. Do you have ballpark estimate on rainfall tomorrow in metro west area?

    1. Convective, so it’s really hard to say, but let’s just say your potential for over 1 inch of rain is very good.

  9. Once again, on a personal note, I haven’t had an issue with the weather pattern, and I spend 6 1/2 hours a day in a room that’s often 90+ with a lot of steam-emitting equipment. Guess I’m just high tolerance. Walking outside has felt refreshing nearly every day, even when it’s 80+ with dewpoint 70+. Still better than where I was. 😉 I guess it’s all relative, ain’t it?

    Add that to the non-stop schedule my brother and I have been running since my brother’s stroke. Not quite sure how we’ve pulled it all off, but ya know what? We did. And yet we’re still not done. Now comes the dog transfer, and then time to focus on a house to be sold…

    BTW today is the first SNE Weather Conference that I’m skipping since it pretty much started as the SNE Winter Weather Conference.

    The combination of having under 2 weeks notice that the event was even occurring and the coinciding with the ongoing stuff made it a no-go. It’s also at a place that I’d rather not set foot in after the way they treated my son when he took shelter from a lightning barrage a few years ago. I’ll spare badmouthing them on my blog since I already left them a scathing review on Yahoo. Well-deserved too, I might add. 😉

    2. Sorry to hear. Why weather folks whose job is to alert people to get inside during a thunderstorm, when presented with that opportunity in real time, didn’t do that, is unbelievable.

        1. Too bad as it would have been interesting to know what your peers have to say about this summer so far, and as to what the upcoming winter might be.

          I am curious though as to the name of the conference hall/hotel that mistreated your son. Is it here in the Boston area? Did they try to kick him out of the building?

    3. They did what??? My good heavens. My grandkids have known from the time they could talk that you take shelter. There is no discussion. And from weather folks. Unbelievable

    4. Unbelievable. Sometimes I just don’t understand people nowadays. The world has changed so much and not in a good way for the most part.

  10. Thanks TK.

    I noticed that Boston is now under the Flood Watch as well. Only Cape/Islands escape.

    When do the Canadian intrusions arrive? Can’t come soon enough for me, anyway. This humid stretch without a single break has to be unprecedented. We may not be experiencing “high heat” per se but the humidity makes it feel just as bad. My house is just as stuffy and uncomfortable not too mention the tile floors all sticky.

    1. Interesting that the heaviest rain still doesn’t quite make it to the coastal communities. The setup is still pretty much inland like it has been much of this summer so far. I always have basement issues anyway.

  12. Happy St. Swithin’s Day! According to folklore, if it rains on this day it will rain for the next 40 days (not continuously, but there will at least be some rain drops every day for 40 straight days). This is very much British folklore and certainly can’t be applied in many places, including New England. But it is very much a possibility (such stretches happen fairly frequently) in Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland, and parts of England (with the exception perhaps of Southeastern England). https://www.britannica.com/topic/Saint-Swithins-Day

    1. It probably only applies to those still under British rule. That is certainly not us. 😉

  14. Just looking at Tom’s note with potential for a 5-
    6 inch rainfall in a small area. Does this seem realistic or is it overdone? Know it’s hard to guess amounts but wondered about upper limits etc.

    Thanks.

    1. I would call up and post the 3km 12z NAM to show what it thinks, but I’m in a low data area and can’t 🙂

      I think the takeaway tomorrow is …… a few areas are susceptible to multi inch rains.

      The catch is ….. for example, Montpelier rec’d 5-7 inches of rain in about 18-24 hrs, some areas tomorrow could get 3-5, 4-6 inches of rain in 6 hrs. So, much higher precip intensity possible tomorrow and flash flood risk is much higher, I believe.

      1. Thank you, Tom. I seem to be in or close to the 5.2 inch range. Ugh. If I am reading correctly, VT seems to be mostly spared. And I hope I am reading correctly.

  18. 82 here with dp 76!

    Calcuated based on temp and wet bulb dp = 75

    Airport: temp 82 dp 73

    YUCK!!!!

    Also, I see some convection firing, north shore, south shore
    and Eastern CT. Will be watching for more.

  20. How long does it take for ground water to decline? We have essentially had no rain for 5 days (only .2 inches the other night) since
    Monday?

    1. It depends on how much there is, and the conditions, and the type of soil, etc.

  22. Down here at Roger Wheeler State Beach on the South Coast of RI. Air temperature 80° dew point is 75°water is a very comfortable 75°. Portuguese Man of War have been spotted here in recent days I didn’t see any today. They have come up here from the Gulf Stream and persistent southerly winds day after day.

  23. I wish today would make up its mind. Every few minutes the sky keeps going back and forth between almost full sunshine and threatening downpours.

    1. But there were really no downpours other than a few isolated ones. Today was exactly as it was forecast to be. No surprises of any kind. 🙂

  27. Seeing a number of 88s. Norwood,Milton, Millis, Walpole

    According to Nws we are 87. I have 89 and suspect it is correct. I really want to get that kestrel.

  28. Most of MA and CT 2% chance tornadoes tomorrow. Almost all of NE in marginal risk tomorrow.

  29. Those changes were made with the update that came in around 130 this afternoon. The earlier outlook just had western parts of SNE in a marginal risk and no tornado risk.

    1. I guess there could be some rotation in any stronger convection.
      We’ll have to watch tomorrow.

  30. This to me is more of a flood threat than a severe weather threat tomorrow. With that said a locally severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out.

  32. A level three out of four for a good chunk of SNE tomorrow. When under the moderate risk numerous flash flooding events are likely.

  33. The early part of the summer reminded me a bit of 2009.
    Currently, it reminds me of 1982 a bit more.
    1951 is also a good analog.

    1. I don’t recall much rain that July but do recall that it was lovely late July (daughters second bday was July 22) since we rented in Hum for a second time to make up for the cold and rain filled week in June. And no one will ever convince me there was not a ghost in the June house.

  35. Agree, TK, with your 1982 comparison. I was visiting my parents in Brookline that summer. And it was often high humidity and lots of 80s with a few days around 90F.

    I was younger then, however, and could handle it. I even liked it at the age of 17. Today, a different story. I feel old and rather decrepit in this weather. Physically challenged when doing outdoor things like running and biking, which I normally do every day.

  38. Quick peak at the SREF showing a low tornado risk Springfield area west and northwestern CT for tomorrow morning.

      1. When you see a 5 area highlighted by the SREF model as is the case for the areas I mentioned you keep an eye on it as it is indicating there is a small chance for an isolated tornado. Storm Prediction Center has a low tornado risk for tomorrow as well at 2%. When the SREF highlights an area showing 15 30 or higher and the SPC starts showing 5% 10% or higher then you really need to pay attention.

        1. Thank you JJ.

          I suspect I’m overreacting but I dug out the bag I keep packed for times we need to head to the basement.

      1. Something seems off about that. I don’t remember much rain. With a two year old wanting to be on the beach I think I would. But nothing?? The temps are what I seem to remember

  40. Analogs for snowfall at Logan:

    1951-52 = 39.6”
    1982-83 = 32.7”
    2009-10 = 35.7”
    2023-24 = ??????

    Do I sense a trend here? 😉

  41. July 1982. Turns out it was hotter than this month will end up being. Wet, but most of the rain was in the 2nd half of the month after a 4-day heatwave.

        1. I’ve found Wunder to be OK with some, not so much with others. That site there is better – probably pulled right from NWS archives.

Comments are closed.