Sunday July 16 2023 Forecast (8:10AM)

105 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

Today carries flood and severe weather potential from tropical showers and thunderstorms that will be moving mostly south to north while ribbons of them drift eastward in response to a slow-moving cold front and a saturated atmosphere. Torrential downpours and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats. Hail is a lower threat today. Lightning is a threat in any thunderstorm, though some produce more frequent cloud-to-ground lightning than others. The rule is, as soon as you hear it, the storm is close enough to endanger you, so move to a place of safety. Also never try crossing a flooded road, most especially moving water, in a vehicle or on foot. While many areas will come away with just a wet, muggy summer day, others will see the occurrence of the more severe weather from this event. Take note, be weather-aware, and don’t take unnecessary risks out there. Things settle down from west to east this evening and tonight as the front pulls through, and we’ll be set up for a much quieter day on Monday, with more sun, some clouds, and maybe a few pop up showers/downpours favoring southeastern MA / Cape Cod during the midday hours with some lingering tropical moisture being acted on by the July sun. Other than that, it will be mainly rain-free across the region, but quite warm and still humid. Another cold front approaches the region Tuesday. You might think “two cold fronts? why isn’t it getting colder?” … but keep in mind this is mid summer now and cold front is a relative term, especially in this pattern when you’re not tapping cool/dry air from Canada. These fronts are weak in terms of not delivering a cooler, drier air mass, but do provide a focus of convergence for shower/storm development. And we’ll see this chance again Tuesday afternoon and evening, but a little more progressively than today’s event. However, the threat of heavy downpours will be there and with the much of the region seeing heavy rain recently and again today, the flash flood threat will be renewed, just for a shorter period of time. This particular cold front will bring in slightly drier air for Wednesday, with will be a fair weather day from start to finish with no threat of showers/storms. We haven’t had many of those since the start of meteorological summer, but that day will be one of them. Humidity comes back up and at least the threat of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday as a weak disturbance moves into the region ahead of the next trough of low pressure that seem to occur in an endless parade this season.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms until midday then more widespread showers/thunderstorms from then on. Torrential rainfall and flash flooding likely in some areas. Damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may occur in isolated locations. Highs 72-79. Dew point 70+. Wind S 5-15 MPH but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms / downpours.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief shower/downpour favoring southeastern MA midday. Highs 80-87, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms become likely from west to east mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point rising to 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

A more limited chance of showers/storms but still there are a couple disturbances pass by on a more westerly flow. No major heat of the sustained variety.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

A similar pattern will continue late month – a few opportunities for showers/storms but a little less active overall, and no major sustained heat.

105 thoughts on “Sunday July 16 2023 Forecast (8:10AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Many areas now under a Tornado watch for today. Already one warning NW of Boston near Acton and Lowell for a radar indicated rotation.

  3. The tornado warning is for a cell going right over my friend’s condo area in Acton. She’ll have a report for me soon if anything happened there. She did tell me some hail was pinging off her windows.

  6. During the night the SPC did upgrade a good chunk of SNE to a slight risk and put out a 5% tornado chance.

  9. Thanks TK.

    Time to build the ark, or is it already too late?!

    It will be interesting if SE MA/Cape gets into the Flood Watch or higher later. Based on radar, I don’t see how they escape any heavy rainfall.

  10. If a tornado happens in this environment it will be a weak one EF0 EF1. A few hours ago there were tornado warnings for parts of Northern NJ and parts of the Hudson River Valley in NY.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    In some ways this month reminds me of a little of 2 years ago. There was even more rainfall then, in fact the most July rain in over 100 years. But it wasn’t quite as humid as this year.

  13. Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Hartford County in CT and will see if that gets upgraded to a tornado warning.

  14. Just saw a tweet on twitter from someone who was in that severe thunderstorm warned storm in Hartford County
    This tweet from Christopher Stiles
    Just had a very scary wind situation in Rocky hill moments ago as the rotation passed over head. Branches down and power lines sparking

  15. Thanks TK !

    Good luck down there today, hopefully none of the potential hazards get out of control.

      1. Vicki downtown Waterbury is about a 10 minute drive for me. Where I am in Watertown it is not a flood prone area. The radar over Waterbury estimated 2-3 inches of rainfall.

        1. Thank you for thinking of my son. I’m afraid of that. So far son said it has been ok. But this May push it over.

  24. A local weather person I follow said he is getting reports third hand of a a tornado in Brookfield. He said Brookfield FD is reporting large trees uprooted. I don’t see a warning box?? Anyone?

    1. Additional info @NWSBoston @WX1BOX – North Brookfield Fire Dept is reporting 10-15 minutes ago of large trees uprooted in their town on Ryan Road. #mawx .

  25. I have an unconfirmed report of a tornado touching down in Acton from that cell earlier this morning. At my friend’s location she reported a brief bout of small hail, which ironically is the exception today, as the storm tops are not that tall.
    She did not have any wind damage.

    I am going to travel to that area later to look for myself.

    1. John Fitch Hwy floods in passing sprinkles. Such a poor drainage area. On a day like today it gets real nasty there.

  32. Made a cup of chamomile/citrus tea early yesterday morning. Left it out all day and night. This morning it’s a petri dish with a massive amount of bacteria. Looks like Dr. Fleming’s penicillin discovery in the early 1920s, except I don’t have an antidote to what’s growing in the cup. The high humidity must have played a role in rapidly accelerating the bacterial growth.

    1. Anything citrus will encourage mold growth rapidly in a humid environment. All you need is one spore to get started.

  33. Tropical Storm Watch will be issued for Hawaii soon. Hawaii doesn’t get all that many direct impacts from Hurricanes and TS’s, but this one will, and it will actually be better news than not. 1) It’ll be weakning, not much in terms of wind.
    2) They’ve been in a drought and can use that rain.

    Sometimes “bad” weather is not bad at all.

    1. Headline on Twitter yesterday: “Hawaii braces for a direct hit from Hurricane Calvin”

      Yes, it was a Hurricane at the time, and yes, the forecast track brought it right near the Big Island. What isn’t mentioned is that the forecast calls for it be a minimal tropical storm, possibly becoming extratropical, when it reaches Hawaii. Yes, they’ll get some rain, but that’s about it.

      1. Just another example of the INSANE over-hype everywhere in media. It’s absolutely disgusting.

        1. Media absolutely overhypes. It is absolutely wrong. But another absolute is that it won’t change. It has hyped far longer than I’ve been alive. Heck, go back to Adams presidency and his VP, Jefferson.

  34. GFS and its ensembles trying to develop a Cape Verde wave 7-10 days out. Not buying it yet.

    Also see lots of people thinking the upper-level low over southern Canada/Great Lakes will finally move out around 10 days from now. Not buying that either.

    When either of those is within 3-5 days, then I’ll thinking about buying it. Until then – status quo.

    As for today – Sundays are usually are fairly easy shift, but not today (and not just because of the weather either). No tornadoes here in Nashua, never saw any rotating storms nearby either – just a lot of rain, but little wind.

    1. I’m not completely buying that either until it happens. I do think “easing” of current pattern upcoming, but not big change in it either.

  35. Just picked up .75 in about 20 mins on that line that is sitting over us. Luckily it looks like the heaviest is shooting just to my east for the moment.

  36. Is the worst of the storm over? Seems like it from radar but never know what’s coming. At least I don’t have to water the grass today. Thanks,

    1. The axis slowly shifts eastward with time, but as long as elements are coming up from the south, have to watch them.

  38. Which model is the HREF? NWS says it has had a good handle on things. Is that also known as the HRRR?

  39. Thanks TK. I didn’t see HREF on Pivotal. Is there a site that has it that’s not premium?

    1. I should note that HRRR is a cousin to it. There are versions you can see via SPC, but HRRR (and it’s soon-to-be replacement) are good.

  41. Just heard from a colleague of mine in the know.

    Dew point readings coming out of Portsmouth and Nashua are incorrect. They are too high.

    Also I will be posting something soon on a problem with a lot of the buoy temperature sensors which have an issue causing them to read temperatures above what they actually are.

    Hopefully they will be fixing that issue soon.

  43. Phoenix airport which is in downtown… 110°.

    All six METAR sites around the city never got above 106°. Location, location, location.

      1. That fits in. Downtown where the airport is there is a heat bowl, like a mini death valley.

        Always hotter than surrounding areas.

        It’s kind of opposite to Logan in a way. It’s representative of one section of the city, where most of the people live are not.

        1. Makes sense. While I am not a fan of where we keep records, I can understand how it is difficult to pick just one area.

          There are still a number of equally high temps spread far away from that sensor. 224 is now up to 227. It is possible that is an outlier

  44. After just being mostly cloudy and breezy most of day – starting to finally sprinkle in South Dartmouth. They keep extending length of flood warnings – first until 5;45 – then 7 now 8:30pm

  49. I hope this pattern ends soon as it’s such a downer on such a wonderful time of the year .

    1. Tell me about it. I’ve spent more time pumping water out of my pool than swimming in it.

      1. I can’t imagjne. My kids just have a large intex (I think) pool and it keeps overflowing.

        Son said so far the blackstone is where it should be. Fingers crossed.

  52. Yankees a losing two out of three to the worst team in the National League. The Rockies started three pitchers with over 6 ERA’S. The thinking coming out of the All Star Break the Yankees could start the second half with a 7-2 record with three against the Rockies three against the Angels and three at home against the Royals. In order to get to that 7-2 mark they are going to have to sweep the Angels and Red Sox.

  54. Off topic, but I need to get this off my chest as I’m shaken by it. Newton, Massachusetts was once a bastion of safety. Crime rarely happened, murders almost never. Now 4 murders in less than a month (the last one occurring last night in a part of Newton I know very well), and all 4 about as brutal (bludgeoning) as can be. What the hell is wrong with certain people?

    Sometimes it’s partly caused by mental illness. But that’s too easy an explanation even when someone’s mentally afflicted. Our society is really violent. I notice it in my safe neighborhood, too. The bars empty out and at least twice a month I’m woken on weekends by fighting drunks. And I mean bloody fist-fights.

    Senseless violence bugs me. It’s why I can’t watch violence on TV, which is hard to avoid given that >50% of what’s on TV is violence-related.

    Of course, the shooting in the North End at one of my favorite spots, the Modern Pastry, was also quite something.

    1. I saw that. In a very upscale newton community. And you are very right. Something is sadly wrong with our society

    2. Everything is based on negativity and anger. You can even see it on simple social media posts, or at a red light when the person in front of the guy in the pickup truck doesn’t accelerate from zero to over the speed limit immediately because it makes them 3 seconds later to their destination. And yes I may be stereotyping, but I notice A LOT of really nasty drivers are males between 35 and 65 driving pick up trucks. They are the largest root of the anger in society, IMO.

      Pick up truck drivers, don’t come after me. If you’re a good one, you’re a good one. I’m just stating what I see. That’s how it is.

      1. The Covid-19 pandemic didn’t help matters. Folks suddenly had nothing to do and very few places to go other than a grocery store, and even that was a challenge. We should never have shut the nation down, which I was very much in favor of at the time.

        1. Well whatever side of the shut-down debate you are on, what it did show is that the overall status is that we’re not good at adapting as a whole. Those of us who did (myself for example) were overshadowed by the abundant negative out there). We have a lot to work on before “the next time”. But instead, we’ll just fight about politics and stay divided. Another thing I refuse to take part in.

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