Monday July 17 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

The more things change, the more they stay the same? The pattern changes this week, but it also stays the same. How is that possible? The overall pattern on the large scale doesn’t change too much. Yes, blocking high pressure over Greenland weakens and has a little less control of the weather as a result, but it’s still going to be there, and still induce a fairly persistent trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeast. But this week’s set-up does allow for a little more efficient eastward movement of systems moving through the trough. So while we do see some unsettled periods, we get a couple breaks. The “break” days are today and Wednesday. A weak area of high pressure builds in today now that we’ve said goodbye to the very wet weather of yesterday, and it’ll be a warm day, still humid but not oppressive, but absent of a rain chance across the region. You will notice, however, that the blue sky is not all that blue, and this is the familiar sight of wildfire smoke from Canada which is still around the region at times. We will have it today, but it is mostly aloft. A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, and while we get through a fair amount of the day rain-free, a shower and thunderstorm threat looms for the later afternoon and evening from west to east. The timing of this front and a lack of strong support may mean that showers and storms struggle to survive all the way eastward, so look for the greatest chance of occurrence and the heaviest rainfall to the west, with a decreasing chance as you head east. Can’t rule out a few stronger showers and storms right to the coast though, so be aware of that if you have outdoor plans Tuesday afternoon and evening. Whatever activity does occur dissipates and moves out by late evening and then it’s time for another break time through Wednesday when high pressure will build in. This area of high pressure will carry a little drier air with it, so the dew point will come down somewhat – not to polar dry levels, but you’ll notice it. But remember we’re still in a somewhat unsettled pattern, and the next low pressure system will be set to impact the region with a shower and thunderstorm threat later Thursday into Friday, based on current timing.

TODAY: Lots of clouds especially southeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon may organize to a line or line segments late afternoon / early evening. Highest chance for heaviest downpours I-95 belt and westward. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Late-day showers possible in western areas (southwestern NH, central MA, eastern CT). Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely through midday. Becoming partly sunny during the afternoon with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

While the overall pattern remains generally similar, a shot of drier air from Canada follows the late week system to bring dew points down and eliminate the region chance for the July 22-23 weekend. Humidity and shower chance comes back during the early to middle portion of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

The final days of July feature a similar pattern. A slightly drier shot of air from Canada may follow a couple shower threats in an overall humid and seasonably warm pattern with no sustained significant heat.

59 thoughts on “Monday July 17 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    I have been wondering when the pattern does finally change, which intrusion will outnumber the other? It figures that the “humid” intrusion will. 🙁

    1. Well as I said, it’s not a full scale change.
      It’s an easing up of the block to allow more dry air intrusions than we had been seeing. That doesn’t mean that it will suddenly be below 60 in dew point more often than it is above. That will still be the other way for a while. But that is also not unusual for this time of year. 🙂

      Here we are in mid-July and we have endured a very humid pattern for a month and a half without major heat hanging around for more than a few hours at a time. Only one 90 plus day at Logan. And while I know Logan is not really representative of the region, there haven’t really been that many 90s overall.

      Some summers that have been persistently humid have been very hot too. 1995 comes to mind as one example.

      1. I could actually go for a “Hoodsie” ice cream about now. Do they still make them? 🙂

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Some good news to report on U.S. public health. As you know, I follow the excess deaths figures every week. And this past week we finally reached an important point as a nation: The total number of Americans dying each day — from any cause — is no longer historically abnormal. It had been above the historic norms since March 2020.

    Why is this important? Well, our life expectancy has suffered enormously in the past 3.5 years. We may, however, have turned the corner. It took us longer than many of our peer nations. The causes extend beyond Covid and also include fentanyl overdoses and gun deaths. But Covid definitely started the spike in March 2020 and the waves we’ve had since tracked closely with excess deaths. But after a 6 month downward trend we’re in `normal’ territory, where we were in February 2020.

    1. Does that include car accidents and deaths not gun related? In Newton a 64year old husband beat his wife to death. I believe there was a restraining order involved.

      1. Yes, it includes ALL cause deaths.

        Keep in mind, Philip, the norm is based on historical data. So it’s an average number of deaths that occur in a given period, which could be attributed to any and all causes.

        So deaths are still occurring, of course, but we’re not observing excess mortality.

  7. Logan received record rainfall yesterday.

    New record= 1.60”
    Old record = 0.97” (7/16/2000)

  11. Logan dew point down to 64

    I’m still stuck at 72 as it is all the way down the South Shore to P-town where dp is 75. C’mon DP, get in here!!!!!

  12. I need Friday & Saturday dry but more Saturday, please send message to Mother Nature.

      1. Saturday all day is dry ? That would be huge , as far as Friday I could do that Sunday

  13. Logan dp 66
    Marshfield 72
    JP 71
    Norwood 66

    AM I in a MOISTURE TONGUE???????????

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  15. Slightly more comfortable today than last week for my long run. Though slightly dazed and feeling a bit sick, I’m not in a total daze upon my return home. You can’t imagine how much I look forward to mornings in late October when I step outside for my run and it’s 38F.

    2. For me it is the same. Was just outside and it is like a SAUNA!
      DISGUSTING!

      Logan is 88 with dp 64. NO WAY dp is 64 here. I have a reading of 69 and that sounds more like what I felt outside!
      It’s PUTRID OUT!!!!!

      1. Agree.

        I ran at the right time a couple of hours ago, because right now it’s getting unbearable outside … again.

    3. Agree Joshua – it will be a while before my body gets used to the low 70s dew point..if ever

  17. I think it’s been a warm summer so far , we don’t need to hit 90 for a hot summer & it’s very warm down this way today for sure , my A/C has been non stop

    1. I know Judah called for a very warm summer & many 90 degree days but as stated above we don’t need to hit 90 with a high DP reading

  18. The temp at Logan must have it’s food break at 4pm.

    This is the 2nd time recently the 4pm on doesn’t appear on the hourly report.

  19. It’s universal I guess in all countries.

    Watching the 6:00pm CTV news …….

    The weather person essentially presented a forecast of limited showers, some sun, warm and humid for Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. Rain or showers the other days.

    When the weather person through it back to the anchor, the anchor said, “ok thanks …… we’ll deal with the rain chances every day.”

    Lol ….. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. When I left work this afternoon, for the first time I could literally smell the smoke. PHEW!

    Those darn careless Canadians! 👿

    1. Nearly half or possibly more as TK has said are from lightning strikes. Indirectly the warming caused by humans is responsible although that blame would fall on all of us also.

      My heart aches for the horrific destruction of their forested land that they have seen.

  23. Summer isn’t over yet. Not for another 2 months. But, highlights thus far:

    – Stubborn Greenlandic block (it’s all the Inuits’ fault)
    – Well above average rainfall
    – Relatively gray
    – Quite humid
    – Not particularly hot

    By the way, I heard cicadas today on my run. It was the second time I heard the piercing sound which always makes me feel like I’m in the jungle, even though in this case I was running on Memorial Drive in Cambridge!

    Red-winged blackbirds are practically silent now. I see them milling around aimlessly (seemingly), but no squawking. Still another 7 weeks until they pack their bags and head for Mexico.

    Goldfinches, on the other hand, are very active. Remember, they’re pretty much the last bird to build nests and raise their young. They do this in August and September.

    Butterflies are everywhere.

    1. Love your comment

      My mom called them June bugs and they do arrive the same time and do drone on. She always said they were calling for water.

      I like the whistle of the red wind black bird but I am not a fan of them. They terrorize my little birds. Including rhetoric goldfinches and blue birds. I can’t feed birds this summer since my shed brought mice into our garage. But I get thistle sacks for the goldfinches cause I can just put them out and don’t have to store inside.

      We had a house finch at the hummingbird feeder today. First time I’ve seen anything other than a hummer (we have tons) or oriole at it. Pic below

      https://imgur.com/a/EZEGIqv

      1. Oh and we have a huge butterfly bush covered with butterflies and all sorts of wonderfully colored dragonflies.

      1. Me too. June bugs or chicada, I think of listening on hot summer nights when windows were wide open because no one had AC.

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