Tuesday July 18 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Today we deal with areas of fog, smoke, and a thunderstorm threat, along with continued high humidity. This happens as a weak cold front heads toward the region and some of the smoke that entered the region both surface and aloft hangs around for a while today. The early-day fog will dissipate where it’s occurring. This afternoon and early evening we’ll have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and west of the I-95 belt. They likely never make it to southeastern MA and most of RI though with the timing too late and not enough momentum before they dissipate. The frontal boundary will be crossing those same areas tomorrow through about midday though and can help initiate a few isolated showers in the regions missed today before it moves offshore. Otherwise, expect a warm and generally rain-free day Wednesday, still humid but the dew point will be down a few notches over today, maybe enough to notice. Sunshine will become dominant on Wednesday, but there may still be some lingering smoke in the air before it gets pushed out. Thursday, we’ll see the return of cloudiness ahead of the next trough, but right now it looks like it will be a rain-free day across the region. That trough moving into the area on Friday brings a surge of higher humidity and a much better chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. It starts to move off to the east Saturday, but is close enough with high enough humidity lingering that we can’t rule out some additional pop up showers and storms that day, but with less coverage than Friday.

TODAY: Limited sun due to both clouds and wildfire smoke both surface and aloft. Areas of fog early. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon favoring areas near and west of I-95. Any storms can be strong. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny RI and southeastern MA until midday with an isolated shower possible, otherwise mostly sunny. Areas of smoke/haze. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and shower chance increasing late. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 70+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

Fair, lower humidity July 23-24 with a modified Canadian air mass here. Return to higher humidity and shower/t-storm chances mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a few opportunities for showers/storms, somewhat humid but a couple drier interludes, and no sustained major heat.

69 thoughts on “Tuesday July 18 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  1. Getting down to the tail end of relevance and easy ability to be first comment 🙂 Thanks TK!

  4. Thanks TK.

    Logan hit 91 yesterday. No surprise I suppose as it felt and looked AWFUL with all the smoke. I could literally smell it on my way home from work.

    I will already put this summer 2023 as one of the absolute WORST. At least in the top 5 of worst summers, even with no high heat. Also days with blue skies have been very rare so far.

    1. interesting as we only nade 87 here in JP.

      We have had 2 days this season that reachedc90 here

      My thermometer has been extremely accurate, so unless it suddenly went bonkers, I am inclined to believe the reading

      1. Lot’s of fresh water has fallen. Very LUSH vegetation all over, so I believe we may had a good deal of transpiration going on yesterday that could have kept the temperature down.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Great photo of a house finch, Vicki. I also love that bird.

    If I leave New England and America I would miss our variety of birds and the space this country has to offer.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. I agree we have a wonderful selection. I’ve mentioned the FB page Wildlife of Worcester County and Beyond. Until I joined, I had no idea how many species we have. I highly recommend it for anyone interested in nature. As a bonus, it is one of the best run FB pages I’ve come across.

    1. Last 3 or 4 days, we’ve shared in the 70F+ dps up here.

      Being further east, we’re sitting squarely under the downstream ridge. With that, it’s been pretty warm during the afternoons.

  8. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_20230717.z500.png

    From yesterday’s CFS weeklies.

    If I’m interpreting correctly, kind of see the persistent westernCanada ridge, the continuing west Atlantic ridge and in btwn, the weakness that has been the persistent trof over the Great Lakes. Keeps the northeast in the SW flow btwn the great lakes trof and the western Atlantic ridge.

    Also saw projections weeks 3 and 4 for above avg precipitation.

    2. IF and I say IF, there were ever a hurricane development during
      this period, the way is clear for it to come up here.

  10. Thank you, TK. I’m maybe west of the very high daily dew points. Yesterday here just felt like summer. The smoke is a shame but I think more for the folks who are in the vicinity of the fires.

    All that said, of course it will rain tonight. My granddaughter has a 6:00 riding lesson

  11. The last hurricane to hit SNE was Bob back in 1991. Is this the year the hurricane drought ends???

    1. For certain and MOST especially for the elderly. They can be affected much more seriously than younger persons and much more quickly as well.

      I feel it oh so much more than I ever used to feel it.

      On a few days during this stretch, I actually was physically ill form it. Trying to stay more hydrated to compensate.

      1. I’d agree wholeheartedly. As much as this feels like summer to me, I think of Mrs OS and others who struggle. I know darn well that if we didn’t have AC, I would also. I didn’t when younger

        Conversely, winter can be equally hard for many. Fall thru spring is by far my favorite time. But of late my winter asthma has made it difficult to be outdoors and I hate that.

  13. I feel as I get older my heat tolerance improves. Totally the opposite to what one would expect.

    I spend 6 hrs per day in a 90+ environment with a dew point (thanks to steam emitting equipment) higher than outside. And other than soaking a shirt daily and needing a lot of water, I’m good. 🙂

    1. I am very envious, TK.

      Good for you, by the way, there’s luck involved by you also must be doing something right.

    1. I am getting a reading of 102 for my area, which is unhealthy
      for sensitive individuals.
      It was 140 yesterday.

      Those values are Air Quality Index.

      1. From Norton NWS office:

        Mainly dry weather may prevail for the Boston to
        Providence corridor Tue.

      1. The folks in the know have said our weather will slowly resemble what we have been used to seeing yo our south. Although I eiikfng want to be in FL now as it is nasty there. And was in Bay Area CA earlier this week.

  19. My brother just lifted his arm for the first time since his stroke. It was only a few inches but before he couldn’t at all.

    He’s over the moon happy. 🙂

    1. Yikes. Indeed it is.

      So far that line is movingly more SW to NE. I’ve been watching for over an hour and it has moved only slightly to the east.

  24. I’m hearing thunder from a small cell / line to out south. I don’t think related to the line to our west or maybe a runaway child from that line.

  25. Question…that may not have an answer. Is that little line over our area going to interfere with the larger line that has been working its way to the SE for hours? Or will it join with the larger line?

  26. So far we picked up a quick 0.4″ and the temperature dropped to 69. We’ll take what rain we can get – oh, wait – that was last year!

  27. I am amazed at how far East this line has traveled.
    Still looking healthy. Still don’t think it makes the
    coast.

  28. JpDave.

    Eric F with a dew point tweet.

    4th longest stretch with a dp not under 60F.

    But, if I remember correctly, he thinks that streak might end Sunday.

Comments are closed.