Wednesday July 19 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

A gradual easing of the ongoing pattern takes place now, with less frequent rain, humidity down a few notches, and a bit more dry air sneaking in from Canada (especially over the weekend). It will still be humid, with dew points generally above 60, but absent will be the 70+ dew points except possibly a few locations on Friday. Also, Friday is going to be be the only significantly unsettled day out of the next 5. Today carries only a minor chance of an isolated shower mainly to the south of Boston as a weak frontal boundary drifts away from the coast to offshore. We have areas of fog as well as continued Canadian wildfire smoke over the region today, but both will make an exit, the fog first, the smoke later. The next trough of low pressure approaches late Thursday with clouds moving back in, leading to our showery Friday. While parameters will be missing for severe storms, weak steering and plentiful moisture sets the table for slow-moving showers and embedded thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, over a region that’s recently been frequently saturated. Therefore, the flooding issue can trigger easily, so keep that in mind if you live in a flood-prone area or will be traveling. Improvement comes this weekend. The trough lingers just long enough to allow for isolated showers to pop up on Saturday, but this will be much more the exception than the rule, and then a push of lower dew point air from Canada will make Sunday the nicest day in quite a while by opinion or many people.

TODAY: Smoke/haze/fog limit the sun early. A sun/cloud mix follows, with most clouds South Coast morning-midday. Isolated showers possible RI & southeastern MA. Highs 81-88 except cooler in some coastal communities. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and shower chance increasing late. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 70. Wind S to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Moderate humidity and dry weather is expected through July 24 to start next week, before the next trough, albeit weak, moves into the region with increased humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances July 25 and/or July 26. Drying trend later in the period. No sustained significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a few opportunities for showers/storms, somewhat humid but a couple drier interludes, and no sustained major heat.

42 thoughts on “Wednesday July 19 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I sure hope that dp drops over the weekend. We need a break. Still very humid here so far today. I am sweating bullets already!

  5. Thanks TK.

    I heard one of the tv mets say that dew points may get down to the upper 50s eventually!

    Yes, I’ll believe it when I feel it.

    1. Well “eventually” they’ll go much lower than that!

      Depends on the definition of “eventually.”

      I’ve got rather painful heat rash all over my torso. Not from the heat (it’s not that hot) but from exercising outdoors in the humidity. It’s the worst such rash I’ve ever had. This is a humidity onslaught. I could NEVER live in a place like Accra, Ghana.

      1. Not a lot of AC there. Or was not when Mac and family were living there. But they have perfected the art of cooling homes

  9. Just spoke with a Greek colleague of mine in Athens. She said she’s “dying from the heat.” She warned me not to run in Greece – for some reason running came up in our conversation about patient access to pharmaceuticals – and that I would “definitely die” if I did so. I know she was kidding. But then again, maybe not.

  10. Thanks, TK!

    Overjoyed at the news of your brother, amigo!
    Best news I’ve heard in a long time!!!

  12. Dew point up to 74F in nearby Sydney.

    Lots of showers/storms in central Nova Scotia.

    Here in far eastern areas, the air is streaming up from the deep tropics.

  14. After my run and shower I’m now all powdered up like an infant (Johnson & Johnson baby powder).

    My impressions of today’s weather:
    – Less humid
    – Not hot
    – Still poor air quality and my guess is that smoke and pollen are to blame

    Breathing has been an issue all month. I can’t imagine how bad it must be to live in Beijing.

    1. So sorry, Joshua. Sounds nasty. I like JPDs gold bond idea. Aveeno makes a lot of products also

    2. Hope it gets resolved ASAP. My wife is really having breathing issues with this CRAP AIR!!

    1. But it’s important to note that cold is MUCH deadlier than heat, and I mean it ain’t even close in terms of the numbers of heat versus cold-related deaths. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/hot-cold-extreme-temperature-deaths/

      I’ll be writing a piece on this in Forbes as I find it fascinating. It’s not how my body works. But ultimately who cares about my personal anecdote, particularly since my body is not typical. Most people are affected far more by the cold than the heat.

  17. The really interesting nugget from the Washington Post article is this:

    Published in Lancet Planetary Health, the second paper reported that between 2000 and 2019, annual deaths from heat exposure increased. But deaths from cold exposure, which were far more common, fell by an even larger amount.

    All told, during those two decades the world warmed by about 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit, and some 650,000 fewer people died from temperature exposure.

    1. Very interesting indeed. I’d love to know how many deaths there have been in total due to all areas impacted by warming.

      1. That’s what makes my article difficult to write. There’s a lot to untangle. The planet is getting hotter, so more heat exposure deaths, but fewer cold exposure deaths. Because cold kills more than heat, on balance there are fewer temperature exposure deaths. Sounds like a good thing? Well, no. 1. Heat exposure deaths disproportionately impact poor regions of the world, including poor areas of the U.S., by the way. 2. Similar to pollution, climate change’s long-term impact on sea levels, agriculture, animal and plant life is much harder to measure or forecast in terms of impact on human health.

        1. Good for you trying to unravel. I’m not at all surprised by your comment. And I am certain that it is a taunting project.

          The headline of wapo made me a bit squirmy. It is one of the reasons I stopped my subscription. NYT does the same. Actually many do as I said a few days ago. It only click bait but a narrow viewpoint.

  19. Orioles are in 1st place in the AL East. That’s a rather remarkable feat. The now sagging Rays looked so dominant through the first 40 games of the season, but are now rather mediocre. The Orioles have really transformed themselves in a good way from really bad in 2018 to really good in 2023. It was a gradual ascent, and a constructive and systematic building of a roster.

  21. I will be in Virginia next Monday then to Baltimore for the game on Saturday then back to CT the next day.

    1. Joshua – You bring up many interesting points here. I have a feeling that this is a better article than you think it is.

      As you say in the last sentence, “heat exposure deaths disproportionately impact impoverished regions of the world.” Could part of the observed difference in heat vs. cold deaths be a result of less accurate reporting in these impoverished regions? In other words, are there many heat-related deaths that are not being counted?

      1. As far as I’m concerned, your article is very informational Joshua. I see no issues with it.

        As for heat vs. cold, why not just split the difference in that too much heat or cold can be potentially deadly.

    2. My colleague has some good stats on heat vs. cold related deaths. Cold is definitely the leading killer of the two. I’ll post some info soon.

Comments are closed.