Thursday July 20 2023 Forecast (7:17AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

A continued gradual shift of the pattern continues in the coming days. Today’s weather is fair, and while still humid by definition, you’ll notice it doesn’t have the saturated feel that the air has had many a day recently. Moving about outside will not make you feel like you’re running laps in a sauna. Any early-morning fog in lower elevations will dissipate quickly, and sunshine will be dominant a good part of today before some clouds start to show up later. These clouds will move in more aggressively tonight, both high and mid level clouds from the southwest ahead of a warm front, and some lower stratus clouds from an air flow off the ocean to the south bringing in increased lower level moisture. A couple showers and even a thunderstorm may wander into and/or develop in portions of the region later this evening and overnight with instability ahead of the warm front. Friday’s weather will be fairly cloudy, humid, and mild, with a passing shower at times, and a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, especially inland, away from a more stabilizing influence of a southeast to south wind as the warm front goes by. The cold front associated with low pressure passing to our north will lazily move across the region from west to east Friday evening and overnight and still can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but I’m not expecting a widespread heavy rainfall this time. Also of note, while not as thick as recently, some near-surface wildfire smoke from Canada lingers through Friday before being pushed out. Saturday’s weather will feature lowering humidity as the front moves offshore, but a cool pool of air aloft and just enough moisture left at the surface fires off diurnal cloud development as the sun works on things, and a few of these clouds may grow enough to produce isolated showers and/or thunderstorms. Again, not a widespread issue, but just something to keep an eye out for if you have outside plans, which I would not cancel for this remote chance of getting rained on. For the most part, Saturday’s to be nice. Sunday is the pick of the weekend though with lots of sun, seasonable warmth, but noticeably lower humidity – the lowest dew points in some time. High pressure moves over the region with fair and seasonable weather on Monday, an early candidate for the pick of next week…

TODAY: Sunshine dominant much of day, with patchy clouds later on. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind N shifting to E-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds take over. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near the coast. Episodic showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH increasing to 10-15 MPH later.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

While the general weather pattern features a weak trough wanting to be in the Great Lakes and Northeast, it’s not as pronounced a wet pattern as previously and features a little more zonal (west to east) flow overall. Initially we see high pressure offshore and a disturbance moving through with a shower and thunderstorm chance to start the period, and maybe another around July 28, with fair weather days outnumbering unsettled ones. Humidity spikes higher early in the period and manageable thereafter. Remaining absent is any sustained significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with higher humidity, and drier interludes between. Continued no sign of any “heatwave” type conditions.

55 thoughts on “Thursday July 20 2023 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Dp change was noticeable later yesterday. That was a bit of a welcomed break.

      1. I think I posted something about it here too. Of course I could have thought to post and forgotten to 😀

  9. Dew point dropped yesterday.

    My indirect measure of it: Blood pressure reading after my 6 mile run. Very high dew point, very low bp. Lower dew point, albeit modestly lower, bp not as low.

    It’s an experiment of sorts in which I’m keeping all other things constant (ceteris paribus): Same run, more or less same temperature, same part of the day, but distinctly different bp readings.

  10. Thank you, TK. I hope your brother is continuing to show signs of improvement. Your news this week is fantastic.

    1. Yay. You sure are having an amazing and well earned vacation. If you stay long enough, will they automatically award you dual citizenship 😉 😉

  13. I wonder if TK was looking for a different way to say “significant heat” when he used “heatwave” conditions in the long range outlook.

    We’ve struggled to see 1 (90F) day this summer and when it’s happened, it’s been barely over 90F.

    I just noticed that wording because the Euro does offer some low 90s projections in its long range time frame, more than I’ve seen all warm season.

    Maybe he’s thinking 1 or 2 days have some chance in late July/very early August to hit 90F or higher ??

    1. “We’ve struggled to see 1 (90F) day this summer and when it’s happened, it’s been barely over 90F.”

      While this may be true for Logan, it is hardly correct for much of this area.

      Here at the StormHQ World Headquarters in the City of Champions, we’ve had 12 90-degree days this summer, including:

      6/2 – 94
      7/5 – 95
      7/6 – 97
      7/8 – 94
      7/12 – 95

      Those don’t qualify as “barely over 90”.

      Lowell has reached 90 7 times this summer, including:

      6/1 – 94
      6/2 – 93
      7/6 – 96

      Even the CO-OP station in Jamaica Plain has recorded 90 or higher 10 times, topped by a 95 on 7/7 and 94 on 6/13 and 7/13.

    2. We have had maybe 5-7 90 days but the majority close to 90. No 90s I’m past week. It’s definitely been the humidity. I will look to see what heatwave parameters are in other countries. Is Canada’s based on three 90 days?

  16. As I stated earlier, I didn’t notice the dew point drop until I watched JR show the temperature on the map for Boston at 60. Sorry, just wasn’t feeling it at the time. 😉

    I do notice it today though. Even the sky looks much bluer. 🙂

  17. Feels very similar to yesterday where I am. It is clearer, to be sure. Perhaps a tad less humid.

  19. The region of Cape Breton were in used to heavily depend on the Coal Mines for its economy.

    This week is the annual Coal Dust Days week.

    Today is the town’s day, where they shut down the Main Street and all the businesses have a tent, etc.

    Just got interrupted by a torrent. Streams of water down the road. We’re in a Tim Hortons (Canada’s Dunkin Donuts) waiting it out.

    This has been a torrent that belongs at lower latitudes but the humidity has been incredible.

  23. Meanwhile, a message I just got from my friend in Scotland: “WHYYYYYYYY am I putting the central heating on in July “

    1. Summers are typically cooler in Robert the bruce land. I’m seeing 57 but that is not unusual for July. What part is he in?

      1. I can’t remember her town, but I asked. 🙂
        Yes I think it’s actually pretty close to normal, but they came off a brief hot spell and she didn’t adjust well. 😉

        1. They had a June heat wave I believe. I also think their heat waves mean more high 80s than 90s. My niece spent a couple of years in Scotland recently. It was during that time she spread Mac’s ashes at St Andrew ♥️.

      2. What do you know, she’s still awake. Glasgow. Central belt. 🙂

        Their high temp tomorrow of 65 (if it is 65) would be right on the normal for the date. She just likes warm weather. That’s why she visits the FL Keys regularly.. haha!

  24. I know it’s still a ways out, but do you think a heat wave is likely late next week? It shows up on Ch. 5’s 10 day forecast. Thanks.

  26. TK, below is a picture of my daughter on the Isle of Skye last July (2022). It was in the low 50s during the day and mid to upper 40s at night. She and her friends were camping in the light rain. But she loved it. https://imgur.com/a/UxzJwGV

  28. I was thinking about Logan in a post earlier today above.

    Different story inland for sure. 97F and 96F in Brockton and Lowell on July 6.

    Well, wonder if what’s been seen inland already might make it to the immediate coast and Logan towards the end of July into early August.

    Interesting numbers though inland. Unless I’ve been completely asleep while on vacation, which is always possible :), I haven’t seen anyone forecast those high temps for any day this summer.

    1. Definitely a struggle at Logan. Inland has had their 90s, but what has been lacking is long stretches of them. They’ve come in quick bursts.

  29. You may recall me saying that the pattern change across Northwestern Europe which occurred in late June often lasts a very long time. Well, this is what has happened. From my experience living there spring and early summer are almost always dryer and sunnier than mid to late summer and fall. And this year the very the typical pattern showed up. A very dry stretch in May and part of June has been followed by a nearly constant barrage of low pressure areas, much cooler weather, frequent light to moderate rain showers, and plenty of wind from time to time.

    1. We’ve had one of the more stable patterns since late spring, where whatever it’s doing, it wants to keep doing in that spot. East central Canada: Dry, many fires. US Northeast: Humid, often unsettled. Etc.

      Sometimes the atmosphere just doesn’t feel much need to rearrange things. 😉

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