Saturday July 22 2023 Forecast (8:43AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

We’re finally going to be released from the grip of the unsettled summer pattern, at least for now. It starts right away too. First the cold front that helped trigger the thunderstorms of last evening is right near our eastern coast to start the day, but will drift offshore as the day goes on. Lots of clouds sit across southern NH and eastern MA to start the day, but these will dissipate and move out with time. Elsewhere, more sunshine starts the day. The region as a whole will end up in a sun/cloud mix this afternoon with some fair-weather diurnal cloud development. Look for the dew point to edge downward behind the cold front as a light westerly air flow takes over. Sunday and Monday will be two nice weather days with relatively low humidity in comparison to many recent days. It won’t be polar dry, but dew points can drop below 60 for many areas for the first time in quite a while. We’ll see abundant sun both days, but some high and mid level clouds may increase near the South Coast later Monday in response to a weak area of low pressure to the south. This low should pass harmlessly out to sea Monday night. Meanwhile, weak high pressure located over the northern Appalachians will be enough to keep our weather fair during this period. It will shift offshore Tuesday allowing the humidity to come back up a little. Previously, I’ve had a shower and thunderstorm threat in the forecast for Tuesday, but the trough I’m targeting to trigger this may be a little later in timing, passing by without much fanfare later Tuesday night or early Wednesday with more clouds than anything else, so for now this period of time has a drier forecast. This also includes the balance of Wednesday when the wind shifts back to the west but it’s quite warm thanks to a stronger influence from upper level high pressure over the western Atlantic.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy southern NH and eastern MA with sun elsewhere this morning. A more even sun/cloud mix this afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest Cape Cod. Dew point lowering toward 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, then clearing. Ground fog forming in some inland lower elevations Lows 57-64, coolest interior lower elevations. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind WNW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point around 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches may form in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then sun dominates. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

A mini hot spell July 27-28 with more 90+ high temps possible in the region. Thunderstorms may arrive later July 28 depending on the timing of a disturbance from the west. If it’s slower, July 29 can start unsettled but overall looks like a fair, seasonably warm, and slightly less humid July 29-31 period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

August starts with a pattern readjustment to a ridge central US, a weak through Northeast, and high pressure further east in the western Atlantic. Indications are for enough northwesterly air flow for a less wet set-up than the previous trough pattern, and warmer weather but no long-lasting hot spells.

60 thoughts on “Saturday July 22 2023 Forecast (8:43AM)”

  1. Jet lag…
    And since the plane was delayed due to the thunderstorms, I landed at the equivalent of 3am last night… did get a pretty good view of the storm from the plane while we waited to be cleared for takeoff though….

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Any thoughts on why/how the storms made it to the coast?
    They seem to weaken and then in Metro West or so, seemed
    to start to re-energize. Most curious.

    Many thanks

    i was really surprised last evening. Spectacular lightning display which was constant at times. My poor wife yelled out each time there was a bright flash as she has memories of the
    house 4 doors down being struck by lightning many years ago
    that blew a huge hole through the roof and started an intense fire in the attic.

    1. My total guess is that the warm front pushed Northward near the coast and gave a dew point boost to the air mass????

      1. The front did lift north. Dew point boost helped. Extra lift helped. There was also some wind shear which helped some of the cells survive as quasi-supercells. Several of these storms had rotation, but in most cases it was barely detectable. The most notable rotating storm was actually one of the first ones in the batch that passed NW of Boston. It briefly had a tornado warning on it in central MA (no touch-down), then lifted through southeastern NH with a barrel-shaped lightning core that survived all the way into the Gulf of Maine. The storms “didn’t care” about the marine air near the surface when they got to the water. The dynamics creating them were going on just above that. But in some areas the marine influence was minimized anyway by being in the higher dew point air just south of the frontal boundary. And you didn’t even need the cold front to be that close to trigger things. That front is literally just moving off the coast now.

        1. Thank you very much for the detailed explanation.
          Awesome!
          That was an enjoyable surprise for me last evening. 🙂

        2. I have no idea what Framingham Saxonville area ended up with for a total. As I’d mentioned to Rainshine last night, the cell going through there looked powerful. Water street in saxonville was flooded up to the underside of cars. In the nearly four decades we lived in that area, it never flooded.

          1. We had 2.3 inches in Natick. I had thought that storms were either going to miss us or weaken. Best news is that we can open windows this weekend.

          2. I think Framingham ended up with close to 2 inches of rain last night. But here in Sudbury I have no idea. Sure, it poured here but not in torrents. It was mainly the extreme thunder and lightning that seemed to go on forever. Earlier, around 5:00 p.m. or so it did get very dark here and yet the sky was a light gray, almost white. We got a little rain at that time. Weather has been strange but interesting for sure lately!

    1. A friend of mine was down in this storm. This was straight line ( maybe weak microburst). But the storm possibly had weak rotation in it at mid levels. That aspect of it just can contribute to the storm’s life and make events like straight-line / downburst events more possible. So it’s all related. 🙂

      1. Oh I wasn’t saying there was rotation. I was only pointing out that there was something and as usual JPD saw it.

        1. Not always. Some funky rotations I have missed. 🙂
          Radar Scope is awesome for detecting rotation. 🙂

  4. Thank you. TK.

    Absolutely amazing lightning show late night from down around Cumberland RI area. I could not believe how vivid it was even from here.

    It’s what folks used to call heat lightning before they knew what it really is

      1. Mine did also. An amazing man worked at our company…professor Chester L Dawes. He was an expert in the electrical engineering field. But to me he was a gentleman’s gentleman. I’d sit and talk with him for long periods. During one of those chats, I asked about heat lightning. It never made a lot of sense to me. And he explained what people were seeing.

        Thank you for bringing back one of my fondest memories of a really special person

  6. Re: Heatwave potential.

    It’s small. NWS forecast #’s (which I generally agree with) do not support 3 days of 90+ for any of their locations, but an error of 2 or 3 degrees on one day would allow for a 3-day stretch of lower 90s for a couple locations (most likely Hartford and/or Springfield).

    While the set-up is certainly a little closer to “classic summertime” as we head to late next week, it’s not a set-up for high heat. And keep in mind that we’ve got a lot of moisture in our ground. It takes longer to heat the ground because the energy goes into drying it out first. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK.

    Thanks for the explanation above as to how Boston was able to get in on the thunderstorm.

    Logan = 1.98” ( A tv met this morning showed 2.01”, maybe an additional shower very early this morning?)

    Now if we can only get some of that unexpected “lift” one day in January? 😉

    1. Oh that happens in winter too. Just a couple seasons back, I remember shoveling 8+ inches of the 2-4 that I predicted. 🙂

    1. We’re looking at a fairly quiet season anyway. Despite some others’ predictions, I don’t agree with them, and I’m sticking with the lower storm #’s.

      Don: No problem.
      Disturbance: Has a shot at development but not a shot at a lot of intensification. Don’t expect it to be much of a factor.
      Nothing else to consider right now.
      No sign of widespread favorable conditions heading into early August.

  14. Is the record for rain in July, set in 1921, in jeopardy? I don’t have the latest tally for Boston. July 2021 got very close to the record, but I don’t think it was broken.

    1. The 102 year old record will likely remain.

      It’s easier for many of the other stations to set records because the period of record is much shorter.

      Have to keep this in mind as well. Not all of these climate measurement time frames are the same. That is extremely important for an accurate application of the scientific method.

      1. Thanks, TK.

        My friend in a nursing home – a former Harvard professor – was born in 2021, in Boston. On occasion, I’ve reminded her of the July 2021 record rains. I kid her by asking whether she remembers. She’ll then say, “no, of course not, I was only a month old.” At 102, she’s very sharp.

      2. What catches my attention is when a record stands for 10, 20, 50,100 years and then is broken multiple years in a row. We are seeing far too many events that have happened in the past broken more than once. Or even just many simply broken once

  15. As I follow my favorite soccer team (Ajax Amsterdam), as they played an exhibition match in the rain against a Belgian club, I’m reminded of the fact that their off season is VERY brief. The season ended around the 1st of June and the summer training began two weeks ago. So, about 5 weeks off, total! The regular season begins in about 2 weeks. Some of the players didn’t even have 5 weeks off, as they were playing in tournaments in other parts of the world.

    Athletes playing in American professional sports don’t know how lucky they are. They earn a tremendous amount of money and get tons of downtime in incredibly long off seasons.

    1. And I still think it’s funny how many Americans look down their noses at soccer, the ORIGINAL football. 😉

      1. I can’t get into soccer, never did and never will.

        Although, I must say, I thoroughly enjoyed watching
        the 3 seasons of Ted Lasso. 🙂

        1. Give me soccer over the NBA … ANY .. DAY .. OF .. THE .. WEEK .. MONTH .. AND .. YEAR 🙂

          1. Son played soccer. His son does. A grandniece is VERY invested in soccer. Like JPD, I don’t watch. But then the only two sports I enjoy now are football and golf although am thinking of getting back into NASCAR

            1. I’m with JPD. Not enough scoring generally, although the U.S. Women’s beat Vietnam yesterday 3-0. Most games are usually 1-0. First goal wins. Yawn. 😉

              2. There is noting wrong with the sport. I would watch before NBA. Even though it doesn’t interest me, I understand why people do. Heck I’m sure people say the same and worse about golf. But everyone has different tastes.

      2. Many Americans look down on our sports figures also. I do wish they knew about the volunteer work many sports figures do. But then most of those folks keep that quiet in order to keep the focus off of them.

  17. It’s going to be an absolutely beautiful evening to go to Salisbury Beach and enjoy the atmosphere – music, food, beach, fireworks.

    I have MORE THAN EARNED THIS this week. 🙂

    Have a great evening everyone!

  20. Joshua, your friend who was born in 2021 is now 102 years old? Wow!

    “Benjamin Button” in reverse! If I remember the movie correctly. Lol. 🙂

    1. Yes, indeed. As a little boy, her father shook hands with President Garfield. I believe it was in 1881.

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