Monday July 24 2023 Forecast (7:34AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

An adjustment of the weather pattern has occurred so we are no longer in the very humid, frequently rainy one, so even though you see shower and thunderstorm chances mentioned a few times in this 5-day forecast, it’s not going to be a wet week – in fact considerably drier than many recent times. We enjoyed some less humid Canadian-born air over the weekend, and it will still be mid-summer-comfy to start this week with humidity not that high today and Tuesday, and even not so bad into Wednesday even though we start to heat up a bit. We’ll be influenced by weak weather systems into mid week with minor boundary lines for dew point and a couple weak troughs will be in the region, and can help focus a few isolated showers and very low chance of thunderstorms any afternoon through Wednesday, with the extreme majority of the region remaining rain-free. By late Thursday, convection from a trough and frontal boundary moving into the Great Lakes can reach western and northern New England with a remnant of boundary-triggered shower or thunderstorm potentially making it into far northwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area by the evening hours, and the shower and thunderstorm chance then goes up for the remainder of the region Friday afternoon as the front presses closer. Thursday and Friday will be hotter and humid days as high pressure ahead of this front shifts offshore and builds in a more classic summertime set-up…

TODAY: High clouds filter the sun while a few diurnal clouds pop up later with a chance of a few isolated showers / thunderstorms, most of them west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to middle 60s, lowest in interior hills, highest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lower elevation overnight fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon favoring southeastern MA / RI as well as central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Remote chance of an isolated late-day shower or thunderstorm in central MA and/or southwestern NH. Highs 84-91. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An end-of-day shower or thunderstorm can reach southwestern NH. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An early-evening shower possible southwestern NH. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Frontal boundary moves through July 29, may start humid with showers and thunderstorms possible then lower humidity and cooling trend through July 30. High pressure builds in with mainly fair weather and more seasonably warm and moderate humid conditions July 31 through August 2.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Indications remain for weak troughing, higher humidity, and some shower / thunderstorm chances – a weaker version of a pattern we’ve seen much of the summer. We may need to watch for tropical activity off the coast south or east of New England by the end of the period.

67 thoughts on “Monday July 24 2023 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  5. Thanks TK.

    Hopefully the brief high heat breaks next weekend. The absolute worst is on Friday, not that Wednesday and Thursday will be a picnic. I do believe Boston will be 90 or better Wednesday for the start of the hot trifecta. 👿

    Hang in there Mrs. JPD! 🙂

    I didn’t see any upper 90s this morning like previously. Just lower ones, if that’s any consolation.

    1. Thanks Philip. It will be a tough stretch. Not sure how
      this will play out. Our ACs have been doing a great job so far, but they loose some effectiveness when too hot. We shall see.

      1. The sad thing is though, I bet that there will be many more heatwaves in the pipeline than cool ones before summer ends.

        2. The CFS weeklies, yesterday’s anyways, show project below avg temps weeks 3 and 4, a good part of August.

          Also, FWIW, I think I saw TWC project one area of the US for below avg temps in August: New England.

          Of course, this can be 20 days that are well below avg, but you still can get 2 or 3 days in the 90s.

          Anyhow, the limited info I’ve seen projects cooler than avg in august in the northeast.

        3. You don’t really trust my long range do ya?

          No sustained major heat. Still none in sight. Some areas barely eek out a heatwave of things break just right late week, then, gone.

          Not sustained.

    2. Wow! Thank you. New England really looks out of place
      on that map. I can’t get over it!!!!

      2. We’ll see what unfolds 🙂

        Certainly, The GFS has had a signal for a couple “summer polar air” surges following this work week. Even the Euro has 1 also. So, perhaps August gets off to a non-humid, pleasant temp start.

        1. I hope so!
          My wife can’t take to much more of the Humidity.
          It really takes a toll on here, even with the AC cranking.

  8. 78 here, 79 at Logan now.

    TK has highs up to 88 across the region.
    I “think” we make it here for sure, unless a sea breeze penetrates
    this far inland. We shall see.

  9. Quite the difference between the GFS and Euro for Saturday. GFS brings the front through early, with low to mid 80s for highs, a few upper 80s. Euro waits until late afternoon and has mid to upper 90s across the area (99 at both Norwood and Blue Hill). I think I know which scenario most of you prefer.

  10. Meanwhile, in Antarctica, Concordia, a French/Italian base, dropped to -81.1C this morning. That’s -114F, and it is the coldest temperature recorded on Earth so far this year.

  15. JPD. I mentioned the series Suits that I’m watching in netflix. Then I of course forgot to go back and see if you were the one who told me about it. If not, I’m really enjoying it

    1. I started watching it, then stopped because I thought my wife
      might like it, even if just to watch Meghan Markle. If she doesn’t
      end up watching it, I WILL. I really liked what I saw so far.

      And, sorry, not I did not recommend it.

      If you are a Sci-Fi fan, I can recommend
      Silo and Foundation on Apple. 🙂

      1. I liked it from the start, around season 3 watched it less but am really glad I did not give up on it. Almost to season 6 now.

  16. Dew points ARE really creeping BACK UP!
    I see a 70 at Hartford and 68 at Norwood while Logan is
    trying to hold onto drier air at 66.

      1. Ahhh 🙂

        I was just going to post 🙂

        Dps overcooked I think and I think it has southerly winds and probably a decent amt of clouds.

  18. Well, let’s see if either the GFS or Euro op run make a change on Saturday or if they hold the course.

  19. Yes TK, I absolutely trust your long range. It’s “Mother Nature” that’s the wild card. I don’t trust heat domes. According to recent national news broadcasts, that dome is now expanding from Texas northward slowly into the Midwest if I understand correctly. Too close for comfort relatively speaking.

    1. Don’t get your weather from national news. Trust me on this. 🙂

      As a meteorologist, I can tell you that you won’t get the correct info, and what you do get will be heavily dramatized to the point the actual information is lost.

  20. Upon review of the short range, NO changes to my discussion and forecast.

    I’ll evaluate the medium range later but don’t expect any tweaks will be needed. 🙂

  22. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023072400&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2023072400&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023072412&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2023072412&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Top 2 (00z GFS) vs bottom 2 (12z GFS) for Saturday, if I did this correctly.

    Slightly less digging of trof on 12z, 500 mb heights a bit higher, 850 mb temps a bit warmer.

    Perhaps the gfs is slowly moving towards the euro for Saturday.

      1. But the euro op run went slightly the other way on its 12z run vs 00z run for Saturday.

        🙂 🙂

  23. Here the temp is 85 with a calculated dp of 69
    Logan is 82 with dp 68 and sea breeze.

    this is NOT dry air. 🙂

      1. Classic moment in that rivalry’s history.

        Unlike hockey players who probably go out for a beer after they fight each other these two probably did not do that.

  25. Upon review of the medium range guidance – no changes to the current forecast.

      1. Short, I covered above. Long, eh who needs long range weather? 😉 j/k .. Not actually sure of the pattern going into autumn yet. But something I’ll be looking at soon. 🙂

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