Thursday July 27 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)

195 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

We have 2 days with thunderstorm threats out of the next 5 as the pattern continues to shift. While I think the talk of the heat was over-hyped by media, yes it’s going to be quite warm to hot today and tomorrow, and part of Saturday anyway, and anybody working outside or sensitive to heat should be aware and be cautious. Our bigger concern is a severe weather threat today as a trough slices through the humid, warm to hot air later. Limiting factor: Debris clouds from convective activity to our west yesterday. We should destabilize enough to see a broken line of thunderstorms moving west northwest to east southeast across the region during the second half of the afternoon to the early evening. The orientation of the line suggests that some cells can move over the same areas for a little while, resulting in a flash flood threat especially due to previous rain and still saturated ground. Hail is a threat in stronger storms. The atmosphere also contains enough wind shear for possible rotating storms which can produce isolated tornadoes. Downburst and straight line damage are more likely though. A few isolated storms may occur ahead of the line by mid afternoon, and the line will likely be most “together” from I-90 northward, before it starts to lose organization and weaken but still consist of a few strong storms as it presses south and east. Watch radar closely / listen to any warnings from NWS / avoid “warnings” from non-met pages! The rest of the forecast is pretty much unchanged. Tomorrow’s a hot day, slightly lower dew points (except the South Coast), behind the trough, but still with high pressure aloft. Saturday’s our next thunderstorm threat, and timing and coverage will depend on the speed of the front. Right now, still leaning earlier, with details to be worked out. But early idea, we likely have another severe storm threat at least for some portion of the region. Then we get a shot of cooler (but still nice) and much drier air for the final 2 days of July – something we have not seen in quite some time around here.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong to severe. Highs 86-93. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s to lower 70s. South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

Zonal flow – trough from eastern Canada to New England. Pattern cooler (near to below normal temps), fewer shower chances.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Zonal flow – trough Great Lakes. More humid, warmer but no sustained heat, more shower chances.

195 thoughts on “Thursday July 27 2023 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  6. Thoughts on tornadoes.
    While the NAM is more robust, the HRRR is not.
    Conflicting data on tornado threat, but obviously the SPC
    sees something concerning.

    Waiting on 9AM SPC update and the 12Z model runs. šŸ™‚

    1. Seemed to have expanded tornado area a touch and moved
      it off of the coast a little bit.

      excerpt from discussion

      Somewhat enlarged hodographs and stronger vertical shear
      over parts of New England indicate a slight tornado potential as
      well.

      Now the question is does slight potential translate to
      a watch like slight risk of sever thunderstorms OFTEN
      translates to a watch.

      We’ll find out later.

  13. Norton NWS office discussion.

    First, a brief excerpt summary

    To emphasize: this is a severe weather setting which is uncommonly
    experienced in Southern New England, and the potential for brief
    tornadoes and straight-line wind damage is a credible risk in
    environments like this one. If you do have plans outdoors, it`s
    vital to keep an eye to the sky and to have multiple ways to receive
    later statements, and that`s especially true in western interior
    sections of MA and CT where the greatest potential for severe
    weather exists.

    Here is link to the whole discussion:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

    1. Almost a certainty. The question is will it be a severe thunderstorm watch OR a tornado watch. Don’t get too
      many of those around these parts. We shall see.

      Won’t see it until at least Noon, perhaps 1 or 2 PM, should it be coming.

    1. Unless otherwise stated, any dew point I report for my location is calculated from air temperature and wet bulb temperature
      as that is much more accurate than what my base station reports!!!

    2. And unfortunately, destined to go higher.

      CT coastline, Cape Cod dps near or slightly over 75F.

      Some dps in NJ and Maryland running 76F-80F.

      The stronger SW winds will help ventilate some, I suppose.

    1. Yeah, itā€™s real concerning.

      I was hoping the dps werenā€™t going to get to NAM predicted levels.

      I think it forebodes trouble ahead this afternoon, whether in the form of straight line wind damage or a significant isolated tornado.

      1. In Some cases, soundings show support for EF-3 or even EF-4. Sure HOPE NOT!!!

        I have noticed something on the models. The severe parameters appear to be out ahead of the convection shown.
        ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

        1. Yes, saw that too and I was wondering the same thing, what to take from that and I have no idea. šŸ™‚

        2. In rereading the SPC discussion, they mention the early passage of the mid/upper level trof ā€¦ā€¦ my guess is that things are not perfectly aligned. If thatā€™s the case, imagine what the potential could have been today had the trof been slightly further west.

    1. In relation to how the day feels to us?
      OR in relation to storm development?
      I presume you mean storm development.
      If so, would you care to enlighten the unenlightened like
      myself? šŸ™‚

      Many thanks

        1. Ok, always got that. I was afraid you were referring
          to some funky effect on the storm development. šŸ™‚

          Thanks

  21. Here it is now 82 with a dew point of 75!!

    NO Mesoscale discussion from SPC yet.

    AND we have LIFT OFF!!
    Some discrete cells ut By South Hadley and north of Amherst
    towards Greenfield. Some near Keene, NH as well. No rotation detected.

    1. Thank you. We watched Pete last night at 11 and he was
      clearly concerned. We shall see what develops.
      NO Mesoscale discussion from SPC yet.

      1. Surprised there isnā€™t in an enhanced risk for some locations based on that wording or maybe that is coming.

        2. And there it is!!!
          I have been watching all morning. Just got tied up with work and MISSED IT!!!!!

          THANK YOU!

  24. Feeling doubtful about severe weather at least in these parts. It’s been cloudy here and light shower passing through now.

          1. Manchester, Lawrence, Bedford and Fitchburg, ALL locations near to Nashua are showing either 72 or 73
            confirming your statement.

            WHY don’t they get it FIXED?????

  26. Will the worst of the weather be afternoon or tonight? From what I am reading it could be this afternoon into the evening. Earlier my 2-meter radio said there would be more storms overnight. Or will it be both?

    1. The discussion for area to our South is outlined in blue indicating
      Severe Thunderstorm
      Our area is outlined in red, indicating Tornado.

      We shall see really soon. šŸ™‚

  28. Original convection died out.
    New convection commencing Just East of the Berkshires.
    We shall see what develops.

  30. Winds at the surface are almost South being a bit West of South.
    Winds at 850 mb are A bit South of West and winds at 700 MB
    and 500 MB are virtually due West.
    That is some veering with height.

    Not a good sign if we get any robust cells.

  31. Next Tuesday, 12z GFS projects 850 mb temps 5-9C, highs in the low 70s and dps in the 40s and low 50s

    High pressure to our west building in.

    I suspect thereā€™s a cool night potential somewhere the middle of next week. As early as Monday night and maybe more than 1 extending through some of the workweek.

  35. So It turns out TK was correct.
    Even though there was a risk of tornadoes, it was NOT enough
    risk to warrant a tornado watch, So a severe thunderstorm
    watch was issued with a mention of tornadoes
    in the threats.

    Summary:

    SUMMARY…Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a cold
    front and spread eastward across the watch area. Damaging wind
    gusts will be possible with the strongest cells through the
    afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

  36. Uxbridge PD just put a post on its FB page that there is a thunderstorm warning in place till 8:00. This may be a really good opportunity to discussion watch vs warning. I get how a lot of people donā€™t understand.

      1. They sure did. Caught my attention quickly. Then I had to g9 look to see if Iā€™d missed a warning. I did post it is a watch in the comments.

        1. I checked first too on the radar šŸ™‚ after reading your post.

          šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

    1. Looks like the atmosphere is going to COOK
      this afternoon. When Convection gets here, OH BOY!!!

        1. I was thinking the same.

          Storms out there now in eastern NY and with what you mentioned regarding heat and humidity weā€™ve achieved, I worry about the next couple hrs for northwestern MA, southern VT and NH and then headed slowly SE.

          1. Sun has been out here for quite a while. Also quite windy. It was windy all morning but has picked up

  39. Alllll the way to 84 at Logan…

    Wickid scorcha! (Dripping with more sarcasm then sweat.) šŸ˜‰

    1. Itā€™s funny, when we look back at Loganā€™s summer temps 5-10 yrs from now, the highs will look fairly moderate and yet, Iā€™m willing to bet a majority of ACā€™s have been running a majority of the time since the summer solstice.

    2. Now 88. Lots of high 80s and 90 here and there. Yikes in DPs down around Toms area. But then seeing other high 70s.

  41. It is very nice. I am not going to be dealing with the threat of thunderstorms instead heat. Excessive heat warning up until Saturday evening down here.

  42. Dew point in Padanaram Harbor 76 (was 77 an hour ago) wind SSW 21 mph – gusting over 30. Sun is now out and temp up to 81.

  43. Feels sultry outside despite the wind blowing lots of warm to hot air. However, not too hot as it hasn’t hit 90F where I am. My thermometer’s highest reading of the day is 89.2F. Keep in mind my thermometer has an upward `bias’ so it probably hasn’t gotten much warmer than 88F here in Back Bay.

  44. Iā€™m now weather.us dopplar radar and please understand I do not interpret thunderstorm radars well at all.

    With that said, I see a green red couplet up near Keene NH

    2. There is a tornado warning there:
      Action Recommended
      Take shelter in place or per instructions
      Issued By
      Portland – ME, US, National Weather Service
      Affected Area
      Cheshire County
      Description
      The National Weather Service in Gray Maine has issued a

      Tornado Warning for… Central Cheshire County in southern New Hampshire… Western Hillsborough County in southern New Hampshire…

      Until 315 PM EDT.

      At 247 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Swanzey, or over Keene, moving east at 45 mph.

      HAZARD…Tornado.

      SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

      IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

      This dangerous storm will be near… Jaffrey, Marlborough, Marlborough, Roxbury, Sullivan and Troy around 255 PM EDT. Dublin, Harrisville and Nelson around 300 PM EDT. Hancock around 310 PM EDT.

      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

      TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

      TORNADO…RADAR INDICATED; MAX HAIL SIZE…<.75 IN

    3. It’s still there even now. Doesn’t appear particularly strong, but it is clearly there! You are NOT reading it wrong.

  45. Compared to the one in southwest NH, I feel like thereā€™s another couplet in far SW Mass, but itā€™s so far from the Taunton radar beam.

    And nothing on the northeast CT storms but Iā€™d keep an eye on those in case they were to intensify quickly.

    1. This one?

      https://ibb.co/m5d79sB

      Look at the composite radar and that couplet is in the perfect spot.

      That would could intensify?

      I wondering IF the SPC will issue a tornado watch now that
      this is happening. I have seen them do that before, that is issue the severe thunderstorm watch and then monitor the situation
      then issue the tornado watch later.

      2. It is exceedingly rare for a severe thunderstorm watch to get changed to a tornado watch, because it confuses the public at time when confusion is the absolute worst thing possible. The severe watch already mentions the chance for tornadoes, which is enough.

  49. Wouldnā€™t surprise me if they issue a radar indicated tornado warning for the cell west of Springfield. I see a broad couplet from the Taunton radar.

    1. You are correct.

      TORNADO…POSSIBLE
      HAIL THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
      MAX HAIL SIZE…0.75 IN
      WIND THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
      MAX WIND GUST…60 MPH

  51. A lot of thunderstorm action taking place right near the Massachusetts Connecticut boarder

    1. I may have been just watching that area for too long but it sure seems to be taking its time getting here

  53. Thereā€™s an area maybe 10 miles SSW of Springfield.

    Looking at radar and then the dopplar, thereā€™s a storm that currently has decent SE inflow into it.

    Whether or not it is fully rotating, I donā€™t know.

    1. And then southwest of that, northwest of Hartford, the straight line winds look pretty strong.

      1. I believe that is the storm heading this way. We are not warned but do have a special weather statement. I am hearing thunder and Getting notifications lightning is 10 miles away

  56. made 90 hete in JP

    storms in ct now appear to be intensifying again and there appears to be broad rotation with one. not tight by any means

    1. Itā€™s crazy here. Wind, driving rain, house shaking thunder and lightning bolts all over.

  57. Pitch black with torrential rain and wind here in Coventry CT. Went from nothing to torrential rain in about 2 seconds.

    Fortunately the worst of this storm looks to be passing over Stafford and missing us just to the north.

    1. I was just thinking about you. It went from zero to a deluge here too. We have 0.90 in a very short time.

      Oldest lost electricity in uxbridge. Something was hit not far behind our house.

  58. Iā€™m sitting on my front farmers porch with a hot coffee deciding where we are going for diner . Was planning on Rought as one of my laborers works there

      1. Yes , of course I spelt it wrong lol . Iā€™m not going now with the storm coming & I think itā€™s getting close as itā€™s getting a little darker ( been windy for over an hour now ) we will go someplace else tonight as itā€™s our last night before Joe gets home Tomorrow from his week in Hampton

        1. I had to look up since I never remember how to spell. You spelled it closely enough for me to know what you meant.

            1. I learned long ago that spelling is not a key to anyone. My FIL and his brother graduated Harvard and MIT. FIL was sr VP Goodyear international and his brother SR VP Kodak. Both brilliant men. One could spell, one could not. Just doesnā€™t matter

                1. Thanks Vicki , thunder here now & we canā€™t decide on dinner . At this rate Iā€™ll be eating at midnight

  60. Round two. Amy be on our doorstep. Mark, it may be what you had?? What we just had appeared to be the appetizer

  62. Almost looks like a meso-low right at the northeast most corner of CT about to skirt the northern RI border and has an accompanying bow echo to its east.

  63. And holy crap here in Braintree ! What wind !

    My youngest and her friends are watching Barbie.

    Thereā€™s going to be some tree damage here and the lightning is insane. I am in the waiting area, thank goodness !!

        1. Talked to son. He said wind and rain were heavy. He lost power. That is two of my three kids without power.

          Captain please be safe

        2. Yes. The gusts I saw with just an individual thunderstorm up in Braintree were briefly ferocious so thatā€™s a little concerning.

          If I am correctly seeing a circulation to the northwest of the bow echo, I think it might be weakening slightly, which might help out a bit. But the bow echo has been going a while so itā€™s certainly built some momentum that might need some distance to ease even if the storms themselves weaken.

          1. The NW area just went over daughters home in uxbridge. Her power is already out. But have not asked her about winds.

  66. Just went through North Attleboro. Gusty winds but didnā€™t appear damaging and .32 of rain.

    Daughter is at music circus in Cohasset for a show, so hoping same is true there,

  67. Very little action in Boston thus far.

    Stay safe everybody, as I do see that there are some ferocious storms in SNE.

  68. Storms definitely weakened as they hit the 495 belt and especially 95 now. Storm overhead here in Sharon and not severe by any means.

    1. Good news. I was thinking about your son when my grandson went in search of his headphones.

      1. His new thing is immediately going into the basement. We have a single story ranch and the basement is almost complete underground.

  69. A couple of minutes of gusty winds and 0.03″ of rain and that’s it from Taunton.

    1. That appears to be over. Just a run of the mill storm. Still Iā€™m glad to be ā€œinsideā€.

  75. We escaped unscathed here in Sturbridge, most of the storms that produced the stronger winds were just to the south of here over the border in Connecticut, in Markā€™s area. There was a decent amount of lightning and a couple of house, and dish shaking rumbles according to my kids, as I was not home at the time. We ended up with .29ā€ in the rain bucket. Mark how did you fair?

  76. All the storms coming across southern Rhode Island just completely dying out – saw one last gasp of lighting and a clap of thunder from one – too much sea breeze still having an affect?

  77. Seriously. Someone slap me upside the head. I keep trying to post a photo of daughters street and her side tracked. Half of her family showed up here to shower etc. and if Iā€™ve posted this three times and think I havenā€™t just roll your eyes and smile. Pahleeezzzz

    https://imgur.com/a/XiqUB1Q

  78. I don’t want to minimize damage and severity of storms in some areas, but I have to say that it was a complete Wimporama here. I mean virtually nothing. a little rain and a few rumbles of thunder.

    1. Well this is why I mentioned that the event was not going to be a 100% coverage event for the big stuff.

      On a page I admin, we have a handful of people trashing the forecast of severe storms (not you, this is different), because they didn’t have a severe storm in their back yard.

      Yup, their trees are still standing. What a shame. šŸ˜‰

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