Friday July 28 2023 Forecast (6:46AM)

102 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A relatively minor hot spell goes on today into Saturday before a big change. Portions of the region saw showers and thunderstorms late Thursday, some of the storms producing damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall, along with some instances of frequent lightning, while other areas were less impacted. This was expected. Today, while we keep the heat, we get a little reduction in humidity for much of the region as a down-sloping wind from the west drives the dew point down for a while. The exception will be the South Coast where the muggy air will be stubborn. This higher humidity then makes its way northward again tonight into Saturday, and as it does so, a few showers and thunderstorms can form in response to the increased dew points, especially later Saturday morning with a little help from the sun’s heating. But not far behind this is a cold front which will charge across the region, pulled by low pressure passing to our north. This front can and likely will trigger a round or two of showers and thunderstorms, with again some severe weather potential. It’s once again important to note that when meteorologists talk about severe weather potential, it’s important to focus on the word “potential” and its definition, and also keep in mind that severe weather is often localized, sometimes hyper-localized, and that the majority of the region will not see events with the storms that qualify as “severe”. Nevertheless many areas can see a gusty shower including torrential downpours, and some can see more powerful thunderstorms at some point Saturday afternoon, maybe lingering into early evening toward the South Coast, as the cold front pushes through. Behind this front comes a shot of Canadian air with cooler temperatures and significantly lower dew points – lowest we’ve seen in quite a while, to close out the month of July on Sunday and Monday. I’d like to forecast unlimited sun for Sunday and Monday, but I cannot. The reason is we’ll have a weak cyclonic flow with a hint of an upper trough over the region, which can allow for some diurnal cloud development each day. Pop-up isolated showers are even possible on Sunday, favoring northern MA and southern NH, but I wouldn’t cancel any plans over this slight chance. Tuesday’s weather looks fair and seasonably warm as high pressure builds over the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s to lower 70s. South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower is possible mainly north of I-90. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

Upper level pattern will feature generally weak zonal (west to east) flow with a weak trough in place, axis mostly to our east. Surface high pressure sits over the region to start the period then shifts to the east allowing humidity to build back in by August 3, then a low pressure area and frontal system from the west brings a shower/thunderstorm opportunity about August 4 followed by the next shot of drier air from Canada for August 5-6.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

The upper level generally zonal flow pattern continues, but with a trough a little further west, putting us back into a more humid pattern with a couple more shower / t-storm opportunities. No sustained major heat.

102 thoughts on “Friday July 28 2023 Forecast (6:46AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Re-post from earlier this morning:

    JpDave
    July 28, 2023 at 6:22 AM

    I don’t want to minimize damage and severity of storms in some areas, but I have to say that it was a complete Wimporama here. I mean virtually nothing. a little rain and a few rumbles of thunder.
    Reply

    Woods Hill Weather
    July 28, 2023 at 6:47 AM

    Well this is why I mentioned that the event was not going to be a 100% coverage event for the big stuff.

    On a page I admin, we have a handful of people trashing the forecast of severe storms (not you, this is different), because they didn’t have a severe storm in their back yard.

    Yup, their trees are still standing. What a shame.

    I understand completely. That is why I said I didn’t want to minimize the severity and damage experienced in some locations. :}

    Onto TOMORROW!

    1. I know you do. But so many don’t. I have explained the same thing to the same guy in particular (one who is now infamous for his NWS-trashing posts) so many times……………………..

      They could forecast high-end tornadoes and have one occur but he’d say they were wrong if it didn’t sweep his property away. I think he secretly wants to be Dorothy…

    2. Pete on the 11PM Broadcast made a bold statement.
      I may not be repeating exact words but it was something
      to the effect that the severe weather WOULD be WORSE
      on Saturday than it was yesterday.

      Comments?

      Thank you.

  3. Boston (Logan) hit 91 yesterday. I think 90-92 for them today is the highest they can get. They won’t reach 90 tomorrow IMO (too many clouds) and therefore will fall short of an official heatwave there.

    1. I had to laugh about all the heat wave talk and heat advisories etc. I didn’t think Boston would make an official heat wave.
      I suppose they still could. We shall see.

      Btw, Pete mentioned SEA BREEZE for Boston today, but thought Logan would make about 91 before the sea breeze kicked in.

      I am really beginning to LIKE Pete’s style. He tells it like it is for sure. 🙂

      1. Petey B. is my fave in Boston (J.R. a close 2nd).

        I have eyed the possibility for a sneaky sea breeze there for a few days. First a wildcard west wind to dry the dew point out a bit, then that dies off and maybe they flip for a bit? By evening, the wind is more SW-S and back in comes the soup to last into tomorrow.

        And as mentioned the reason I don’t think Boston gets to 90 tomorrow is too much cloud cover and possibly an early arrival of showers (by late morning). If they get more sun and the 3km NAM is correct with less early activity, then they’d have a shot.

        2. Temps tomorrow are tricky. If there’s enough sun in the morning, many places, especially south of the Pike, could get to the lower 90s. On the flip side, if models like the HRRR and RRFS are right, and there’s some thunderstorm activity moving through around 8-10am before the main batch in the afternoon, we won’t get anywhere close to 90.

        3. Love them both and often say the same. Eric is also a favorite but can be a tad sarcastic (not quite the word I’m looking for). I don’t think Pete or JR have a sarcastic bone in their bodies.

  6. Norton NWS discussion excerpt for today:

    Drying and subsidence
    probably will suppress shower and thunderstorm chances for a
    welcomed change of pace, but we do have to watch for isolated
    development along the sea-breeze. Opted for dry weather for now
    though.

    And for tomorrow:

    * Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Again Possible Saturday, Mainly
    Near and South of the Mass Pike. Straight-line wind damage,
    torrential downpours capable of localized flooding, frequent
    lightning would be the greatest risks. Large hail and a brief
    tornado cannot be ruled out either but are secondary to the above.

  9. Still awaiting a dew point drop.

    Temp here is 79 with a stinken dew point of 72 !!!!
    Can REALLY feel it!

    Logan reporting dew point of 68.
    Norwood 70
    Bedford 72

      1. Ha ! We just saw them the other night at XFinity Center. Along with Howard Jones and Culture Club.

            1. We love concerts, unfortunately my wife’s health
              does not allow her to attend any more.
              And as for me, at my age, I’d spend 1/2 the concert
              in the restrooms. 🙂 🙂

              Our last concert was Social Distortion at the Palladium in Worcester about 5 or 6 years ago and
              it was a Steam Bath. We were NEVER so hot in our lives,. It had to be 110-120 in that joint. We were about to leave when they finally opened some doors not too far from us and we could breath again.

  10. Thank you, TK. Great write up.

    I got the blown forecast from a family member and friend….in different states north of MA. I absolutely get being disappointed if you enjoy weather. I don’t understand blaming Mets. I copied your comment above and will send it.

    Worth a repeat. Thank you.

    It’s once again important to note that when meteorologists talk about severe weather potential, it’s important to focus on the word “potential” and its definition, and also keep in mind that severe weather is often localized, sometimes hyper-localized, and that the majority of the region will not see events with the storms that quality as “severe”.

  12. Another Excerpt from the Norton NWS office concerning tomorrow:

    The shear profile
    forecast tomorrow is different than today, in that deep layer
    shear values are higher and support organized updrafts
    (magnitudes 40-45 kt), but the shear down low is not as strong
    with 0-1 km SRH at 100-150 m2/s2 or less. That still could pose
    a brief tornado risk especially with thunderstorm cells,
    reflected in SPC`s Day-2 convective outlook showing a 2% tornado
    risk (
    that seems small, but it`s climatologically significant
    for SNE     ). The bigger risk is for strong to damaging winds,
    torrential rainfall capable of flooding (which we may need to
    consider addressing with a Flood Watch), and frequent lightning.
    The severe weather potential could be as marked as it was on
    Thursday.

    1. AQI = 61 (Air quality index)

      This is moderate
      Sensitive individuals should avoid outdoor activity as they
      may experience respiratory symptoms.

        1. Agreed.

          Let’s see if the 3K NAM and regular NAM have the front as far north as the HRRR did.

    1. My eyes went to the radar echos in nw CT.

      Meso low with bow echo out ahead of it.

      Again, supercell/tornado parameters not high, but what there are line up much closer to the thunderstorms

  20. Plenty of folks saw impact yesterday.

    But, I think the impact tomorrow could be closer to even more populated areas.

  21. TK you were the only one to call for a dewpt drop today more than 2 days out

    It’s falling, not plunging obviously but going down with a west and nw wind. Right on. Thanks!

    1. Thanks!
      But they might be done going down with the wind back onshore…

      But at least if it stays like that it won’t get as hot there… Trade off.

  22. I don’t know about Logan, but we have a seabreeze going in eastern marshfield now.

    Happened sometime in the last 15 minutes or so.

  23. Logan is currently 82 with dp 70 and CALM wind.

    SEA BREEZE HERE WE COME!!!
    Will it last long enough to prevent Logan from reaching 90????

  24. Dew points have dropped at inland locations where most
    are now 66 which is certainly better than 73-75 that we
    had yesterday.

    Logan’s is 70 and it just will NOT go down here.
    DP 70 here as well.

  25. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=se&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    Clusters of Thunderstorms hanging around the Bahamas, bringing needed cloud cover to Florida to bring down temps, were able to develop a tiny sfc low coming ashore near Jacksonville.

    With El Niño setting in, I think the us east coast has a higher likelihood of getting affected by something that develops closer to home, this particular season, compared to the traditional multi day track Cape Verde system.

    1. Thanks. Keene or Roxbury or are they one and the same. I’m familiar with Keene. Not Roxbury

        1. The only reason I knew about Brookline NH is from the “no school” listings during snow events. Wherever that town is, it must be near the MA-NH border.

      2. And now I wonder if there is. There is. Roxbury st. I don’t see a Roxbury nh. I wonder if it was the street where tornado was.

    2. I was on the weather.us radar yesterday at that time and the one thing about that Keene, NH storm, the couplet developed fast. That’s my impression anyway. I don’t feel like it caught my attention much before Keene and then all of a sudden, there was a very noticeable green/red couplet.

  30. 74F from the top marine ob at the bottom of the 1pm NWS Obs. That thin top layer of water is really warm today.

  34. Looking at the 18z HRRR, there’s a better than usual chance strong storms make it very far south and east into southernmost New England tomorrow.

    Or, at least the atmosphere is more primed further south and east compared to a majority of times.

  35. It seems like lots of beaches and even pools are closed or posting high bacteria levels. Some of the beaches are salt water and many are ponds. The Mass.gov site lists more than 50 beaches posting high bacteria levels. As for pools, I’m not sure how many are closed.

    2. You are both right. A good number of Town lake and pond beaches are closed out this way. Mac tested water for pollutants and created safe levels for most government and regulatory agencies. He was always hesitant to have the kids swim in local ponds.

  36. Looks like the temperatures underachieved expectations a little bit today.

    If Boston is going to make it to 90 they have about 1 hour left.

    1. Not out this way. But Logan is 90 now. Probably one of those 90s they come up with an reason to knock down to 89

      1. Yes they recorded it at 5:21 and they will review it to see if it stands.

        I literally saw that about 3 minutes after I posted above. We were getting the dog back from a vet appointment. 🙂

          1. She’s doing OK, but she does have some anemia & a bit of a liver issue that we can treat with medication and a new food. 🙂

            Just need to await some bloodwork results for a few other things, but overall for a 12 year old she’s doing quite well!

            She spent most of the day at the place and was very well behaved. 🙂

  37. With Logan recording 90 today, tomorrow “should” complete the heatwave trifecta.

    The first and hopefully the ONLY heatwave at Logan for the season.

    1. Change “should” to “may”. I think there’s about a 1 in 3 shot they hit 90.

  38. Thanks TK! Love the swoosh of DP on Sunday.

    Africa was incredible, cold as hell in the AM and quick rebound.

      1. Africa is a big place. It has mountains. It also has desert. It gets really cold in the desert at night.

        I used to forecast most of the continent. You think about a whole lot more weather than just “hot”. Trust me. 🙂

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