Sunday July 30 2023 Forecast (7:43AM)

54 Comments

COMMENTARY

No heatwave for Boston. High temps during the “wicked hot” stretch there were 88, 91, 90, and 86. It was “wicked humid”, especially yesterday, but definitely not “wicked hot”. It’s time for the media to re-define itself and start telling things like they really are. They won’t do this, but it’s time they did. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

It’s a “new world” out there. Yesterday’s unsettled weather is gone, the active weather pattern is taking a break, the humidity levels have dropped. We’re going to be in a generally comfortable air mass now for these 5 days, with only an uptick in humidity noted by the end of the period on Thursday. We’ll still be under a weak trough of low pressure aloft today until Tuesday. Today it just means some diurnal cloud development during the day, peaking in the afternoon for a decorative sky. In addition, a ribbon of higher level clouds is cutting rapidly eastward across southern portions of the region (though visible from further north in the southern sky) this morning, and another may appear similarly during this afternoon/evening in response to a weak and inconsequential disturbance passing to our south. Despite these cosmetic details, we have a beautiful Sunday to enjoy. Monday’s difference will be a weak cold front moving our way from Canada via northern New England, which will likely develop a broken line of showers and thunderstorms well to our north during the day, and some of those in isolated form, or late-day developing isolated ones, can impact a few areas generally west of I-95 and north of I-90, but as I said on yesterday’s update, don’t cancel any Monday outdoor plans based on this. Monday will still be quite a nice day across the region 99.9% of the time, and 100% of the time for anybody not tagged by an isolated shower late. Surface high pressure builds toward the region Tuesday with refreshing air, and I expect some diurnal clouds to pop up with the lingering trough aloft, but Wednesday with high pressure both surface and aloft, expect full sun. Both of these days will feature comfortable low humidity. That will start to go up but only slightly noticeably by Thursday as high pressure shifts offshore to allow a more southerly air flow, but with continued fair weather. So other than the remote shower chance late Monday, we have 5 dry days ahead of us, something we haven’t been able to forecast since May.

TODAY: Much sun, some clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Patchy evening clouds then clear, but areas of late evening and overnight ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 53-60. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early ground fog patches dissipate. Lots of sun will have to share the sky with more clouds later. Isolated showers possible and a slight chance of a thunderstorm near day’s end north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 77-84. Dew point 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible early.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point below 60. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

A trough and frontal system move in from the west with higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances going up for August 4, may linger into early August 5 before the system pushes offshore with dry weather returning for the balance of the August 5-6 weekend. Humidity increase and shower chance return late in the period as the next trough approaches. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

No big changes in the overall pattern with a generally zonal flow but a weak trough dominating. A few unsettled weather chances, fair weather between, timing to be fine-tuned later. Temperatures near to below normal.

54 thoughts on “Sunday July 30 2023 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    The 2nd wettest July on record for Logan.

    1. 1921 = 11.69
    2. 2023 = 10.43

    Dorchester = 3.19” (yesterday)

    AAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

    DP = 53 🙂

  3. TK – Would you say that yesterday most areas had more wet times than dry ones? I had a rare day off and thankfully I spent the entire day at home inside housecleaning.

    I am glad that I got my vacuuming done just in time. 😉

    1. here we were dry till 1PM or so, Then we had 3 bouts of rain ending around 9PMish. Last batch around 6-7 PM featured the most lightning.

    2. That actually very widely as there were really two strips that were wet more often but I think the region as a whole was rain-free more often than it was raining.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    In that 4 day stretch we made 90 here only on 2 of them. Almost did it yesterday at 89.

    Luckily, once again, my area spared any severe weather.

    It’s almost chilly in the house this morning. What a difference.

  6. For the last three days in Lunenburg, the “moisture wave” had these high temperatures / dew points:

    86 / 78
    88 / 74
    86 / 80

    1. The media’s obsession with heat this summer is out of control.

      What are they going to talk about now? August does not look hot………

      June and July were not hot either.

      You’d think this was 1980 1983 1988 1995 and 2002 rolled into one the way they talk…

      (Add a JPD expletive string here.) 😉

      1. Agree.

        Unfortunately media is now mostly about hype. Let’s hype this, hype that, and equally annoying, let’s create never-ending soap operas in politics and sports. Cable news (both sides of the political spectrum) and sports radio are emblematic of this. Substance is mostly avoided. Overdramatization, often to the point of bending or completely ignoring the truth, is the go-to for most media.

        There’s always been some hype and some element of soap opera in reporting. But now it’s off the charts.

  9. Philip, thanks for posting the numbers. So it appears that Boston’s July 1921 rainfall total record is NOT in jeopardy this year. I’m vising my 102 year old friend today. She was born in June of 1921. I’ll let her know that the record stands. She probably doesn’t care (who does, except nuts like me), but knowing that her special year of 1921 has some unassailable records will make her happy.

  11. Rather uneventful evening in Natick. Rain was 1.3 inches with most in a quick barrage and wind and lightening were modest. It was a nice surprise after media hype. Hope there was minimal damage elsewhere. Thanks, TK.

  12. Dutch met office long-range suggests a continuation of current pattern over there for several more weeks: Below normal temps, (modestly) above normal rainfall. https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/verwachtingen

    Europe has been divided by a scorching heatwave in the south and mostly southeast and a cooler than normal pattern in the north and west. This has been a theme since late June. It’s not unusual, as I’ve mentioned. When I lived there in the 80s and 90s this occurred rather frequently. This said, the recent temps in Greece have been extraordinarily high and the wildfires were dramatic and damaging.

  13. JPD, were you able to get your rain gauge replaced or have you decided to give up on that? I thought you posted awhile back that your weather station had mechanical issues.

    1. Not going to bother since I had to move the station OUT of the sun. Temp was always reading about 3-4 degrees too HIGH!

      Now it is spot on. Where I have it, is NOT a good location
      for collecting rain data. 🙂

  15. Thanks, TK.

    We didn’t have rain till around 7 pm and that made up for every thunderstorm we have missed in the past many years. It was a rough one. And as rough as it was here, I know far too many under the tornado warned areas and that is down right scary for them.

    As far as media, just the same old.

      1. I was thinking about you at the time. Tom was great at keeping me calm. And then he was rewarded with a tornado warning. Just not fair.

  17. I seem to remember a funnel cloud was seen in one of our tornado warned areas in CT. Was there any damage from the one over the south shore?

      1. Oh dear. I have a dear friend in Easton. Will have to give him a call. Thanks, TK. And thank you for your help yesterday also.

  18. What a difference a day makes ……

    Enjoying the sun’s warmth on the beach today.

    I did see for an hour or 2 last night after the storms past that the offshore buoys had gusty NE winds …..

    Sure enough, there are some fun swells, oh 2-3, maybe 4 ft rolling into shore on occasion.

    2. No one is complaining, unless maybe they want to swim in the ocean???? Perhaps pretty chilly coming out of the water. 🙂

  21. I can say this. When Dutch mets say there’s going to be a lot of rain – as there will be tomorrow in the Netherlands – the upper limit is 25 mm, which is about 1 inch. And that’s considered an enormous amount of rain. I never experienced rains of more than about 1 inch in the Netherlands on a given day. Still shocks me to this day how much it can rain and snow here. Indeed, speaking of snow, a lot of snow in the Netherlands is 10-15 cm, which is 4 to 6 inches. It hardly ever snows more than that.

    1. When I told my Dutch classmates how much it can snow in Boston, they’d invariably respond by saying things like “everything’s bigger in America.”

      1. And even though Dutch people are much taller than we are, everything else in the country, from houses to cars to meal sizes to really just about everything, is (considerably) smaller.

        1. Is there any country in Europe that uses our system of measurement AND drives on the “proper” side of the road? 😉

          Thanks Joshua for translating. Sorry but the metric system drove me crazy in school. 🙂

  23. Top 3 weather day this summer. Maybe the best ???

    Cooling quickly this evening, feels invigorating.

  26. Philip, Ireland, the UK, and I believe Malta have left side of the road driving (steering wheel is on the right – hardest thing for me was getting used to the stick shift as you have to do this with your left hand). They still refer to miles per hour, also when talking about wind speed. But otherwise it’s all metric and Celsius. The rest of Europe is like us in terms of driving, but never refer to miles per hour (it’s all in kilometers per hour), and often talk about wind speed in terms of the Beaufort scale. Pretty much everything is measured on the metric and Celsius scales. Both are much easier to understand, besides being more logical.

    1. I’m not sure of the current situation in Canada, but I remember back in the 1970’s when we often went to Montreal from college in Potsdam, NY there was a confusing mix of units. Gas prices were in Canadian dollars per imperial gallon. The ads for new cars gave the fuel consumption in liters per 100 kilometers, so lower was better!

  27. Radiational cooling pretty good in SE Mass, at least.

    Wind calm, marshfield airport down to 63F already.

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