Monday July 31 2023 Forecast (7:44AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

A weak cold front will move toward and across the region from northwest to southeast later today and this evening, and other than a couple isolated showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm mainly north of I-90 in the window from about 3 p.m. on, it will be a dry day across the area, with just some clouds mixed with the sun, and continued low humidity too. High pressure builds into the region with dry weather and below normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, but fair and cooler than normal weather at the start of August is usually quite pleasant – and this will be. High pressure starts to shift off to the east by Thursday, turning the wind to southerly, which will start to increase the humidity slightly, but not that noticeably. It will become more noticeable by Friday though. That day our weather will also turn unsettled with a shower and thunderstorm threat ahead of a trough and approaching frontal system.

TODAY: Plenty of sun, more clouds later. Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm for less than 10% of the region north of I-90 from 3 p.m. on. Highs 75-82. Dew point 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early with an isolated shower possible, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible early.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point below 60. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

A low pressure trough exits early August 5 with a shower threat lingering, but the balance of the August 5-6 weekend will be fair, mild, and dry as the trough pulls away and high pressure builds in. Next trough arrives with a shower/thunderstorm threat and higher humidity early next week, exiting with fair weather returning by midweek in a zonal flow weather pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Similar pattern into mid August – zonal flow / weak trough. A couple unsettled weather chances that don’t longer. No significant sustained heat.

47 thoughts on “Monday July 31 2023 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  4. Joshua, to your comment on yesterday’s post…

    Yes, “stable” patterns have been the thing this year.
    Where it’s A, it stays A. Where it’s B, it stays B. Etc.
    Ironically a stable pattern can lead to more extreme local / regional conditions, for obvious reasons. Media will never point this out, because they’ll just focus on the conditions, not the cause. But we’re used to that . 😉 That’s why people like myself point it out. You present the ENTIRE picture, not just part of it. 🙂

    A stable pattern is what was responsible for our 2015 snow barrage.

    A stable pattern is what is often responsible for the big heat summers (1983, 1988, etc.).

    A stable pattern this year helped kick off Canada’s nasty wildfire season. It was dry for weeks on end in the vulnerable areas.

    Weather / climate are complex, and there are many puzzle pieces that are often not spoken of. This is not only a current problem, but has been for quite a long time now, in media, who have the job of entertaining as much as informing (not the original intention).

        1. It’s not going to last anywhere near a full month like the “other” pattern did. Not even a full week.

  8. Thanks TK.

    If I hear one more tv news anchor or tv met mention “feel of fall” or “Pumpkin Spice”… 👿

    Yes, a tv news anchor mentioned “that drink”. 😉

    1. I HATE Pumkin Spice!!!!!!!!!! it is GROSS!!!

      Yet people love it. Whatever floats one’s boat.

    1. Fascinating. I have my mom’s journal from 1927. I will check to see if she mentions this. Thank you, JJ

  10. Thank you, TK. This reminds me of the august weather when my kids were younger. Either Macs parents would visit for some relief from the HHH of Charleston or we’d rent at Humarock.

    Just lovely

    2. Interesting syllabification with the word Humarock. WP never did build in a lot of standard grammar rules.

  13. Not mentioned here or in my blog, looks like the smoke comes back later this week, likely Wednesday/Thursday, possibly tomorrow.

    2. We do not need that!!!
      It really affects my wife as she has trouble breathing when
      the smoke is surface.

      Current AQI is 20 here. 🙂

  15. The air behind this late afternoon’s cold front, I think is a bit cooler and drier than what arrived Sunday and it’s good for 2 days. Tomorrow’s going to struggle to get much above 75F.

    There are further pleasant shots of air to follow after that for another week, following 1 day humid pushes, but I think that’s shots of mod-high humidity, not oppressive.

    After that, looking at CFS weeklies, ensembles and op runs, maybe something more consistently avg to slightly above temp wise with moderate humidity. Nothing hot or oppressive, but not quite as comfortable as it is now. Beach weather, but not brutal.

  16. Weather today is nice, but still quite warm. Not hot, but still uncomfortable when running in the sun. For me at least.

    By the way, I don’t consider 70s to remind me of fall. Still very much summer. I consider days in the low to mid 60s as autumn-like, with night-time temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. We’re not even remotely close to that. So TV mets should stop with all the fall talk. And if I was President I would prohibit ALL back-to-school advertising until after the 15th of August. I remember being so depressed – I hated school – when the back-to-school ads came on TV and the radio in late July.

    1. Back in my day, back-to-school ads always began in August. “Feel of fall” talk should not take place until the 2nd half of August at the earliest unless an unusual chilly air mass becomes well entrenched. Still way too early right now. I agree, TV mets should stop contributing to these news anchors wild comments.

    2. Forget the back-to-school stuff, Halloween displays have been in the grocery stores for 2-3 weeks now.

      One thing on the back-to-school stuff though, compared to the rest of the country, students return to classes very late. I worked customer service for a scientific educational company for several years. I can state with certainty that many school districts across the nation, start classes in early-to-mid August, so waiting until 8/15 for back-to-school ads doesn’t work. It’s really only the Northeast that waits until later in August or early September to start. I’ve got a good friend who lives in Orlando that was up visiting last week. His kids are in high school and he told me that when they got back home yesterday they need to get a lot of things taken care of, because the 1st day of school is a week from Wednesday.

      1. Excellent point SAK. There is a variety of reasons to shop early.

        Oh and I was looking for fall Halloween decor this morning. My decorations go up mid September and vine down day after Halloween to make room for the start of Christmas decorations

        TK. What color is your tree now?

          1. So fun. Mine is not close to being as sophisticated as yours. I’m working from crystal blue ocean toward yellow and orange.

  17. At church yesterday we celebrated the ninth Sunday after Pentecost and the sixth Sunday of Christmas. I understood the first but wrote to my Minister to ask about second. He said it was just a fun take on Christmas in July. We sang Christmas Carols. And since I attend remotely, I loved every second of singing loudly and feeling something so special that I’m sorry the season comes only once a year.

    I also watched hallmarks Christmas in July movies all month. I absolutely understand some folks don’t want to hear fall or school or Christmas Or Halloween. But some do. And I’m a proud member of the second group 🙂 :D.

    For the feel of fall, in my mind it isn’t a month or a temp. It is more moving from very hot to an ahhhhh temp.

    I love your perspectives Joshua and Philip and I love mine also. It is what makes us all unique and without that it would be one heck of a boring life.

    1. All very true.

      Thanks, Vicki.

      And yes, SAK, you are correct that we are late with our children going back to school. I was just remembering how much I hated the ads because of my dread of going back to school.

      1. My younger daughter told me this morning that she isn’t crazy about this weather because it reminds her of going back to school. And she truly hated school. I also hated school but oddly loved shopping for back to school clothes.

  19. Thanks for posting the link to the article, JPD.

    Vicki, back-to-school shopping can be fun for kids and even parents. I certainly can see that. I sort of liked it, too, especially getting the very latest sneakers. I spent a lot of my allowance on `high-end’ sneakers because I wanted to look cool. Don’t think it really impressed anyone. But heck it’s always worth trying. I think my reason for not liking school was due to our family moving so many times between kindergarten and 6th grade. So practically every year it was a different school. If you’re not an extrovert – I am not – then it’s tough to get used to.

    1. I understand. Mac’s family as you know moved regularly. He had a twin so I think it was more difficult on his older sister.

      I lived in Belmont always. But we moved every two years and that meant a whole new neighborhood and kids. BUT I didn’t have to adjust to an entirely new culture. And believe it or not. I have always been an introvert.

    2. I know how you feel. We moved 5 times to different states and it was difficult adjusting every time because most kids had been at those schools their entire life.

Comments are closed.