Wednesday August 2 2023 Forecast (6:45AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

The region continues its break from the previous humid and showery pattern as high pressure holds over the region today and shifts offshore Thursday. Dew points stay way down today, as evident by the chill in the air this morning – a hint of autumn! But we recover nicely during the day into the 70s from some areas being as low as the upper 40s. Urban and coastal areas bottomed out in the 50s to around 60, not as chilly but still cool-feeling with dew points sub-50. But a nice day with dry weather, low dew points, and no rain threat. It’ll be sunnier than yesterday with only a few diurnal clouds popping in comparison to the fair amount we had yesterday. Another thing you’ll notice today as the sky is a bit less blue, with more of a hazy look. Once again this is due to a return of a wildfire smoke plume from Canada, but this time its the more typical western Canada mid summer fires, as the winds to the east are largely under control and in many areas nearly out. That plume may hang around for a while, taking through Thursday to pass through our sky. With high pressure offshore Thursday, we’ll have a warmer and slightly more humid day but with fair weather. Then, low pressure and its attendant frontal systems approach and pass through the region Friday to very early Saturday, first a warm front early Friday then a cold front following from west to east Friday evening to the early hours of Saturday. This means another period of unsettled weather with high humidity, and showers with a chance of thunderstorms, bringing another round of heavy rainfall to some sections. At this time time it’s a short-lived bout. There is good news for the weekend as high pressure builds in with a return to fair weather and lower humidity!

TODAY: A few clouds, otherwise sun becoming filtered by high-altitude smoke from west to east. Highs 72-79. Dew point 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Smoke-filtered moonlight. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point 50+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun and patchy clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising to around 60. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A pre-dawn shower chance. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 74-81. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms evening, diminishing from west to east overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning with a Cape Cod shower chance, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling below 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in the 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

Watching for the next trough and frontal system to bring unsettled weather back to the region later August 7 into August 8. A return to high pressure in control with fair weather by the middle of next week, a brief interruption with a shower chance to follow about August 10 as the next system moves through in a quicker westerly flow, and fair weather to end the period. Temperatures near to below normal – no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

A continued zonal flow pattern with a tendency for weak low pressure troughing being in control. A bit more humidity and seasonably warm weather with best shower and thunderstorm chance at mid period.

54 thoughts on “Wednesday August 2 2023 Forecast (6:45AM)”

    1. Great example of urban heat island effect and one of the clearest examples of our own influence.

      What do you think the low would have been if you and everyone else lived in grass huts with no power or paved roads? 😉

      Probably 50.

      1. You’re preaching to the Choir!
        I have understood this concept since a very young age. 🙂

        What was Logan’s low? According to MesoWest,
        it was 61. I have considerably more trees and grass in my location than at the airport. 🙂 : ) 🙂

      2. I think there’s an old boundary sitting there that extends in variable definition south southwestward to off the Mid Atlantic.

        In that region a pocket of warmer water may be triggering enough toward air motion that “replacement” air is heading in, meeting the boundary, and rising.

    2. This one I do remember. We helped family friends move into their new housing at Dartmouth college. She was among the first female professors. Thankfully we had no idea of the actual temp.

      Once home, I slept on the living room floor with the doors open to the screened porch.

    3. That link doesn’t go to the heat.

      But I remember it well, Played golf the next day, which was still plenty hot and almost died. 🙂 🙂
      I was down the Cape in Eastham. Btw thermometer at the place
      we were staying read 97 degrees. That is unbelievable for out
      on the Cape!!!!

  16. How good is that forecast model? Hopefully with EL Nino we could get a couple good Nor’easters for this winter.

    1. Just go with the Maine-based “Farmer’s Almanac”. They issue their winter forecast on August 1st every year and every year they go cold snowy stormy for this area. I figure if you say the same thing every time you will be right once in a while…

      That publication is not to be confused with TOFA out of Dublin NH, which I can safely say doesn’t do any better in their “forecasts”.

      For your entertainment only.

  17. The Farmers’ Almanac claims to have this 85-90 percent accuracy which I don’t buy. I do enjoy reading the outlooks for New England.

    1. If you verify them, it’s under 50%, mostly because they “guess” incorrectly most of the time. 🙂

  18. For entertainment purposes here are the winter highlights for New England from the Farmers’ Almanac for winter 23-24.

    The second week of January will be stormy, snowy, and wet for both the Pacific Coast and the Eastern States

    -An East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states will bring snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures, during the second week of February

    Another East Coast storm will bring a wintry mess to this area during the first week of March

    A possible late-season snowfall over the high terrain of New England during the third week of April won’t be a fun “April Fools’ Day” prank

  19. Looking out to Friday, it seems like
    T storms are expected to be non severe with biggest threat likely to be heavy rain. Do you agree and how much rain do you expect? Thanks.

      1. Thanks. Relative to the wording from last Saturday’s storms, this seems like a day at the beach.

        1. As of now, how true. However, I would advise to stay tuned
          to updates as they come. These things are always subject to change. Let us hope it stays as is. 🙂

    2. I do agree, but I think the amounts will be modest in comparison to recent events, with the exception of isolated bigger totals, which is not atypical of this set-up.

  20. Hmmn….

    We may end up with a healthy slice of sunshine for a few hours on Friday somewhere in eastern New England.

    This would mean at least these 2 things…
    -Surprise nice beach weather for people who planned to be there and are bummed out after looking at their weather app.
    -A little more fuel for potential atmospheric destabilization and therefore some potentially stronger thunderstorms later.

    1. Looks like Area Forecast Discussion is reporting that models are pointing to less rain than before for Friday.

  22. After recording 9.97″ of rain in July, we’re up to an even 33.00″ for the year in Lowell. I have 197 years of monthly rainfall data for Lowell. The 33.00″ thus far is already more than the entire yearly total from 14 different years, and we still have 5 months to go. Overall, it is the 11th highest total on record through the end of July:

    35.52″ – 2008
    34.69″ – 2006
    34.55″ – 1938
    34.47″ – 1916
    33.95″ – 1922
    33.44″ – 1900
    33.18″ – 1998
    33.09″ – 2000
    33.06″ – 1901
    33.04″ – 1953

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