Thursday August 3 2023 Forecast (7:08AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

High pressure shifts off the coast today and a warm front approaches the region from the west later in the day. The changes today will include an increasing dew point, increased cloud patches ahead of the warm front, and a hazy/smoky sky from high-altitude smoke out of western Canada, but overall it will still be a nice early August day with no rain threat. Tonight, the warm front moves through, perhaps with a few showers overnight, and a spike in humidity to last through Friday while we reside in the warm sector of low pressure. That low will drag a surface through through the region with one round of showers and maybe a thunderstorm during Friday morning, a break with just isolated activity following, then another round of scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region later in the day through the evening Friday. Timing of the front allows the showers to come to an end by later evening and during the overnight hours from west to east, lastly on Cape Cod toward Saturday’s dawn. Other than some lingering cloudiness to start Saturday in eastern areas, the coming weekend looks pretty nice with lots of sun (some diurnal clouds Saturday, and fewer of those on Sunday) with dry weather and low humidity, and not too hot but not too cool either. Monday’s weather will feature increasing clouds as the next trough approaches the region and a surface warm front works toward the area.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun and patchy clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising to around 60. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Passing showers possible late evening and overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 64-71. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms most likely in the morning and again late afternoon / evening. Highs 74-81. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms evening, diminishing from west to east overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning with a Cape Cod shower chance, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling below 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in the 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

Shower/thunderstorm chances with a passing trough and cold front August 8. High pressure brings fair weather for the middle portion of next week. Next trough / frontal system brings unsettled weather briefly about August 11 followed by fair weather returning at the end of the period. Temperatures near normal but no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)

A zonal flow pattern with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough being in control. Temperatures generally near normal.

60 thoughts on “Thursday August 3 2023 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  5. I’m considering a partial beach day at the Cape tomorrow. Do you have a suggestion on which part might work best?

  10. Lots of birthdays today.

    Happy birthday to Rainshine, JPD, and my youngest grandchild who just turned 7, Rilyn Mac.

    I hope you all have a special day!

  11. Happy Birthday Rainshine JpDave and to your youngest grandchild Vicki!!! Mother Nature has given you a great day on your birthdays!

  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2023080312&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2023080312&fh=31&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Jean, here are 2 simulated radars off the latest HRRR which shows a high probability rain stays north of the Cape a good part of the day tomorrow.

    I didn’t post it, but the simulated satellite makes it look like the Cape can get some sun too.

    It’s just 1 model and it’ll be good to here what TK thinks 🙂

  15. Happy birthday to you 3.
    JPD is trying to catch up to me, but I have too much of a lead. Lol

  16. On today’s SPC outlook, I see that 2% chance tornado in far northwestern NY state, up by Massena.

    Further looking at the short range models, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Montreal area or Ottawa area experience a tornado today. The supercell/tornado parameters up there this afternoon are noteworthy.

  17. When’s the SPC’s next update to tomorrow’s (day 2) outlook ?

    Kind of interested seeing it ……….

  18. Our birthday kids must be out celebrating. I know my granddaughter is. She is planning to see the Barbie movie. I hope everyone is having a perfect day

    1. Fishing. Fine day it was and my haul included 12 large mouth bass, 5 of which were very decent size up to 15 inches. Water was very high in the Charles River, which is just what I want for the bass.

      1. The GFS does establish the Bermuda high further north a bit later in its run.

        Something to watch, see if it maintains consistency and brings it further along, closer to the mid range.

      1. It probably won’t.

        The models are reliable 2-3 days out.

        Probably something that won’t move forward in time. 🙂

  20. For some British understatement, see forecast below: “Saturday is going to be rather unsettled.” It’s the opposite of hype. Our TV mets would be saying batten down the hatches, take cover, build an ark … Of course, I’m exaggerating, sort of. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LhOflJoirw

    No matter what that low will be quite potent (look for yet another textbook curl) as it crosses Ireland and heads across the Irish Sea on a southeasterly trajectory across England and towards the North of France.

    There is some possible relief by the end of next week as more settled weather may establish itself across the British Isles.

      1. Indeed. By the way, I meant to say Northern Belgium, not North of France, when I said where the area of low pressure was headed. It looks like it could make landfall, if you will, west of Antwerp, Belgium. As the Met Office met said, though, the track is still a bit uncertain.

    2. Thank Joshua. That’s interesting to watch. I like “Temperatures aren’t going to be particularly exciting.”

  22. Thank you for all the nice birthday wishes. We had a lovely day. We drove around Concord by a golf course and then stopped at Verril Farms for a muffin and just enjoyed the scenery. Headed back to Sudbury and up towards Harvard (no apples yet!) just for the ride. We are deciding on where to eat for dinner or just take out. In any case, nice day.

  23. Thanks Joshua for sharing as always. Yes, those tv Mets are definitely “cool, calm and collected” to say the least. I am curious though, are their tv news anchors and reporters the same during significant weather events?

    1. More or less. Carol Kirkwood can get a bit animated but not what you would see here. For Kirkwood’s perspective on the weather this week, see the link below. Part of this is personality and the way many people are in Northern Europe, and some of it has to do with the fact that both the BBC and Met Office aren’t commercial. They’re government-owned, with license fees imposed on viewers: £159 (~$210) a year for a household TV license. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LhKG–whwM

  24. Rainshine, happy birthday, and what a splendid drive through the countryside. Sudbury, Harvard, Concord, really some of the lovliest places on our planet.

  25. There is quite a severe thunderstorm south of Burlington, VT, west of Middlebury, VT that has an appendage on its southwest side and it looks like there’s a green/red couplet on the dopplar.

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