Friday August 4 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)

82 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

Now we’re in a pattern where unsettled days are outnumbered by fair weather ones, and 3 out of 5 fair weather days are in this 5-day forecast. Today’s not one of them. While the DJ may have 2 turntables and a microphone, the weather map has two troughs and a cold front to come through today. Trough #1 produces a cluster of showers and possible thunderstorms this morning, while trough #2 produces a somewhat more organized batch of showers/storms later today, with strong to isolated severe storms embedded in a cluster or line, favoring areas north and west of the I-95 belt. This area will likely weaken as it progress into and through the I-95 belt, but some downpours and a few stronger storms can remain. Between the two troughs a few isolated showers can occur but also we can see some breaks of sun. A cold front follows these troughs, passing by overnight with perhaps a few more showers, the last of which may linger on Cape Cod into the post-dawn for a short time on Saturday morning. Fortune is on our side for the weekend, with both days being quite nice. Saturday’s humidity will be going down, and Sunday’s will be comfortable. Saturday’s the day with more fair weather clouds, and Sunday will see less. But the first weekend of August will be ideal for all summer outdoor plans! Monday will be a day that starts with sun and ends with clouds as high pressure moves offshore and a warm front approaches from the southwest. Tuesday will be the other unsettled day of this stretch, similar to today, as another trough and frontal system brings a shower and thunderstorms threat, along with higher humidity.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms most likely in the morning and again late afternoon / evening. Higher rain chance and stronger storm chance west of the I-95 belt. Highs 74-81. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms evening, diminishing from west to east overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning with a Cape Cod shower chance, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling below 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in the 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

High pressure will be in control with fair weather, warmer weather, and higher humidity (but not likely oppressive) from the middle of next week on. Only interruption may be a quick shower or t-storm threat August 11 with a disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

A zonal flow pattern with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough being in control. This brings limited shower chances and keeps sustained heat from occurring.

82 thoughts on “Friday August 4 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  9. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2023080412&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=scp&rh=2023080412&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2023080412&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    HRRR develops some showers/storms in eastern areas mid day.

    As the storms are about to exit just north of Boston, the severe parameters increase a bit.

    There is strong WNW flow at 500mb. WSW at 850mb, but at the sfc, almost due S at the coast and gusty just offshore.

  11. I guess my thought from those links would be, if there’s a thunderstorm btwn Boston and the eastern Merrimack valley late this morning into early afternoon, it’s worth watching until it clears the north shore.

    Let’s see if the 3Km NAM has anything similar.

  13. They’ve named the storm approaching the British Isles. It’s called Antoni. While it’s an intensifying system and certainly going to cause headaches for travelers and people on holiday it’s really not that unusual a storm. I lived through these kinds of storms in summer in England and the Netherlands throughout the 80s and 90s, and MANY of them in fall and winter. I really think that storms should only be named if they’re really powerful.

    1. I don’t think storms should ever be named. I think it is STUPID. 🙂

      Yet, they do name hurricanes. Perhaps that practice should be abandoned as well. 🙂

  23. A severe thunderstorm watch is coming for those areas. Cloudy here all day today where I am so will see if anything develops.

  26. I wasn’t expecting Boston to be included either. The greatest risk is northwest of there for anything strong to severe. The activity should it form looks to be isolated.

    1. I remember the hail. We had just left nwh mas general radiation dept and had to pull under a bridge overpass.

      Thanks JJ

  30. The other day I heard from one of the tv Mets that New England averages 2 tornadoes per summer. I think it was Eric?

    I do wonder with continuing global warming that average will actually increase over time. In the past they were somewhat rare but the past few years they now seem to become more common as if this was Kansas or something.

    4. New England averages 8 tornadoes per year.

      The reason there are “more” recently is not because there are more, but because we miss fewer of them since 88D and its upgrades.

    5. There is a plausible theory that a warmer globe overall will lead to fewer tornadoes.

          1. That article explains it very well, and also hits upon the EF-0 tornadoes as having been the ones seen more frequently now (as a result of better radar detection, not more frequent occurrences).

            This is about as much as we know, but it’s reasonable science, in my opinion. 🙂

            The overall stability of the atmosphere regarding severe t-storms that produce tornadoes could and probably would be less in a region (USA) that sees earlier and longer-lasting hot spells, governed by high pressure ridges, that actually limit convection / t-storms and the resultant tornadoes.

            1. Nat geo is one of my go to sources. There are so many areas/events impacted by warming that we may well be past the point of no return on some.

  33. That data on tornadoes is interesting. Since the web site is about home insurance, I’m surprised that there’s no accounting for the land area of the states. That seems a more accurate measure of the risk of a particular spot being hit.

    For example, I took the top five states from last year and normalized the numbers so that the top state, Mississippi, is 100:

    Mississippi 100
    Texas 87
    Alabama 64
    Minnesota 42
    Florida 40

    Then I used the land areas of the states to find the density of tornadoes. For instance, to get the number for Texas, I found
    87 * ((land area of Mississippi) / (land area of Texas)) = 16

    Mississippi 100
    Alabama 59
    Florida 35
    Minnesota 25
    Texas 16

    I must be bored! 🙂

  35. This guy takes great pictures, including this one which he says sums up Britain in summer time: https://twitter.com/DaveZ_uk/status/1687440826173911040

    Moving forward, my plan is to spend several months a year – without a visa I’m allowed between 3 and 6 months in a given year – in Britain. I’d stay at a long-term AirBnB apartment. I’ll spend those months in late spring, summer, and perhaps early fall to escape the heat and humidity of New England.

    1. Based on that photo, it rains fairly frequently during the summer months, but then I suppose it rains a lot throughout the year. Not my cup of tea (I guess I made a pun). 😉

      No HHH? Surprising it doesn’t come northward on the jet stream every now and then.

      1. It can get hot there, but they are a cooler summer climate than we are. Surrounded by the cold N Atlantic water.

      1. I didn’t realize there was a microburst by Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods on Rt 9 in Framingham My daughter just reminded me

  39. SNE radars are EXTREMELY quiet. Just a few specks near Springfield/CT Valley. Even my iPhone has lifted the Severe T-storm Watch and now it just says “mostly cloudy”.

    TK – Fine with me of course but what happened to the activity? 🙂

    1. The activity was to the west and north, deeper in the watch area.

      I was just writing about this on a page I admin.

      Remember what a watch is, versus a warning. They still had it right today. The watch was warranted, and the warnings occurred in the watch area, just further west in the box for the most part. Nothing unusual there.

      1. Those “futurecast” radar models from the tv Mets all showed a fairly distinctive line of showers & thunderstorms getting into Boston and later the South Shore. Sure, nothing we haven’t already seen much of this summer but still a heck of a lot more than there is now.

        Of course if I had forgotten my umbrella and not worn my thicker shoes today, all radars would have lit up like a Christmas tree, as Jimmy sometimes says here. 😉

        1. I continue to be very against showing models on TV weathercasts. In my extensive experience helping people, the practice is far more confusing than it is helpful.

          Example: Last week, just before one of the larger events, station #1 showed model #1 and the person remarked how the majority of the activity would be in the morning, with a break in the afternoon. Station #2 showed model #2 and the person remarked how after a mainly dry morning, most of the activity would be in the afternoon.

          I knew exactly which two models were being shown, and they were NOT in agreement whatsoever on the timing of the event. But pick a model, get a simulation – not really an actual weather forecast. This has been my issue for a long time, and the same practice is what prompted my online argument with a ch 25 met about snowfall amounts being shown days in advance. They highly disagreed with me, and I will not budge in my opinion that the practice is more confusing than helpful. I see examples of it far too often.

  40. My 12 year old is playing baseball out here at All Star Village in Oneonta NY, and we had two rounds of storms today, one that was tornado warned this morning, radar indicated, and another severe storm this evening that interrupted our game. The second storm was one with torrential rain, and hail. Now that the storm has passed it has made for a spectacular sunset. We resume in a little while, going to be a late night.

    https://imgur.com/a/zaDOZkp

    1. Oh my. That is as stunning a sunset as I’ve seen in quite a while.

      And I’m very happy you are all safe

  41. Thanks Vicki , we rode it out in the car and had a spectacular view of the storm lots of hills out here near Cooperstown, the entire Storm structure was visible, something not usually seen in Sturbridge. This Cooperstown trip is a once in a lifetime experience for these kids, I’m having fun watching the games and the storms. Lol

  43. Neat circulation, vortex, something working its way thru eastern NH into western ME.

    Thunderstorms were well out ahead of it.

  44. Unrelated to weather, is there still a COVID page? Wondering if Joshua had any insights into possible uptick in recent weeks. I know some folks getting it.

    1. There is not. But I believe TK said ok to discuss here. My daughter said there is an uptick also. So I’m interested.

  46. On Cooperstown, I second Vicki’s comment. Great, magical place.

    On the Red Sox, by the way, in the blink of an eye they’re possibly headed to where I think we all thought they’d be at the end of the season: 81 and 81. They’re likeable and unlikeable at the same time. They play hard, which is great. They’re also incredibly inconsistent all season, which is not great.

    On Covid, yes, a new XBB sub-variant is making the rounds. Wastewater is our best measure of this, and it’s showing the increase in infections. Hospitalizations have also shown an uptick, but it is not particularly significant, at least not yet: 15=20% increase nationwide, BUT the baseline was quite low.

    For those who are vulnerable: >65 and immunocompromised, I do recommend a booster. Not quite yet, but once the newest version comes out in September.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. Booster for me in fall. I remain cautious as I know I’m in the fairly high risk category

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