Sunday August 6 2023 Forecast (7:42AM)

58 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

Not making any changes to the forecast other than slightly faster timing of the Monday-Tuesday unsettled weather. High pressure controls today with great weather, and moves offshore tonight. A warm front moves into and across the region Monday, and as its parent low passes northwest of our region, a trough and cold front will swing through on Tuesday, then offshore Tuesday night with a drying air mass for Wednesday. This time high pressure slides a bit further south and by Thursday we’ll be warmer, more humid, and have some clouds re-introduced to the sky, but for now I feel that any shower threat Thursday will hold off until later at night with a generally nice summer day anticipated.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early sun then lots of clouds. A shower chance midday and again evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH, light coastal sea breeze possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

Best shower and thunderstorm chances August 11 and August 13 and/or 14. Much of the time fair with a zonal flow and weak disturbances passing by. Temperatures fairly close to normal – no significant sustained heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

A zonal flow pattern with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough being nearby. Passing disturbances bring a couple shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures near normal.

58 thoughts on “Sunday August 6 2023 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  1. Goid morning and thank you TK.
    Is your thinking still that severe weather will be limited or non-existent Mon/Tues?

    1. Limited at best. Looks better south and west of here late Monday. Timing isn’t good for this region.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Humidity will continue to dominate over dry. We need to work on that.

    Morning darkness is now beginning to creep in, albeit slowly but noticeable. Even the sun now sets before 8:00 pm.

    1. We’ve been getting some nice dry intrusions from Canada.

      That was the expected pattern.

  7. Quick peak at latest SREF showing that low tornado risk for CT RI and interior parts of MA between 5-8AM on Tuesday.

  12. Excerpt from Norton NWS office

    Severe weather threat appears low, but given the tropical like
    environment and 0-1 KM helicity near 150m2/s2, there remains a low
    risk for a brief spin-up, something to keep watch over. SPC kept
    western Massachusetts and most if not all of Connecticut under a
    marginal risk for severe weather. Meanwhile, WPC kept most if not
    all of southern New England under a marginal risk for excessive
    rainfall through 12z Tuesday. As mentioned before, PWATs increase to
    2 inches plus, especially along the southern coast of Connecticut
    and Rhode Island, increasing the risk heavy rainfall and localized
    flooding.

    1. Both the severe weather threat and the flood risk are fairly low with the next one…

      We are starting to get away from that pattern where flooding is more of an issue.

      Not gone completely but trending away from it.

  13. Yesterday’s Red Sox game ended very poorly, as we all know. How much did weather factor in? I think it may have a bith. While wind speed wasn’t a factor, it was blowing in, albeit slightly. I think there was a northeasterly. The ball was not carrying the way it often does in summer air. From the reactions of everyone, from the hitter to the pitcher (he briefly walked off the mound looking dejected) to the 3rd base coach to the baserunners they all thought it was a homerun. https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1687963063570362368

    1. VERY stupid base running regardless. I believe the Sox are back in dead last place where they belong. I have hardly kept up with them as I long since gave up back in April. The problem is that Fenway Park itself is more of a “cultural landmark” than anything. Even baseball fans who aren’t Red Sox fans come to Boston just to be “part of the experience” and fill up the park regardless of the standings. No real $$$$ incentive to win year after year after year. Management laughs all the way to the bank, if you will. 😉

      It’s time to move on to the PATRIOTS! Their first preseason game is sometime this week. 🙂

    1. Which kind of has kept an elongated ridge along the southernmost US.

      This has been responsible for the 110F+ weather in Phoenix with hot weather east to Florida.

      Without the Bermuda high keeping more of an ESE flow at 500mb over Florida, Florida has had its thunderstorm activity suppressed. They’ve seen a lot more sun resulting in the shallow keys waters getting hotter than usual and causing a bleaching of the reefs.

  16. Philip, I get what you’re saying on the Sox. It was bad baserunning and coaching. But based on the reactions by so many players I really think they all thought the ball was gone.

    Regarding Fenway, I love the ballpark. I’ve been to quite a few others. I still think Fenway is the best. I shelled out too much money the other day to go with my brother and his wife to next Saturday’s game. I’d like to see Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) one last time in a baseball uniform. Have always loved to see great hitters. And he’s definitely one.

  17. I believe that August is the month when we lose the most daylight. I could be wrong. But I believe I saw that last year during one of Eric Fisher’s forecasts.

  18. The coming week is going to look a lot worse than it will be if you read NWS forecasts, because of their wording.

    Unsettled days are Monday Tuesday Friday and Sunday.
    But really only 2 of them are “cloudy”.
    And the nice days will be REALLY nice.

    This pattern is still somewhat active, but as is often the case, August is trending nicer with time, even with the somewhat stubborn activity.

    It’s very rare to have 3 summer months in a row that are the same, and an active pattern like June / July seldom hold through the summer.

    Actually a bit of a misconception, June was not really that wet. It just had a lot of days WITH precip, but not a lot of heavy stuff.

    July was different. That was heavier rainfall for most areas.

  21. Thanks, TK, for letting us know that September is the month we lose the most sunlight. For some reason I thought I had heard August. My memory isn’t what it used to be. It’s deteriorated quite a bit in the last few years.

  23. I hate to have to share some sad news on this beautiful day but it must be done…

    My brother’s dog, Tuukka, passed away yesterday, from what we can tell fairly peacefully.

    About a week ago she had received a checkup that showed some abnormal liver numbers and something on the x-ray on her liver. Other than that she was her old self, and no obvious pain, and acting quite normally. During this time she had taken an antibiotic and some nutritional supplements and a new food to help which seem to be doing quite well.

    Yesterday, after a normal early morning visit, I found her rather lethargic and a little bit shaky on the second visit, which happened to her once in a while basically due to her age and sometimes a little bit of a passing health issue.

    She went off to sleep in her comfort zone and we believe a short time after that she was gone.

    Tuukka was 12 and very loved. She will be missed.

    We do find some comfort in knowing that her decline and passing were rapid and did not linger… Just a matter of a few hours. We would have never let her suffer anyway had it come to that, but apparently it was meant to be natural.

    Now that she is over the rainbow bridge she can run with her previous family which includes several dogs and a rabbit. 🙂

    1. I am very sorry to hear about the passing of Tuukka. May she run with her family of dogs and a rabbit.

    2. Oh TK. My heart aches for you and for your brother. I am so very sorry to hear Tuukka has crossed the rainbow bridge. It isn’t a lot of consultation, but she is running pain free now and looking down with love at you all.

    4. So sorry for your brother, you and your family about the passing of Tuukka, TK. I am sure she was a good and faithful friend.

      Peace.

  25. Home now from a week at my daughters house/bunny sitting. They are now safely home from their trip to isle of palms SC. They drove down the more western route through the blue ridge mountains. Such a spectacular part of our country.

  26. About two weeks ago, I posted this WBZ Severe Weather map and wondered what the light green color means, since it’s not in the key at the top.

    https://ibb.co/k0Q2V7D

    They showed a similar map again today and I sent an email to WBZ. I received this response from Jacob Wycoff:

    Thanks for the email. The light green color is a ‘general thunderstorm threat’… not really a severe thunderstorm threat.

    Let me talk with our executive weather producer to see what we can do about changing that.

    We appreciate you bringing this to our attention.

    Wishing you blue skies…

    1. Thank you. I don’t know if you saw the discussion that followed your post. I thought it was the color you were questioning. Then second guessed myself.

      Well done, SClarke. And Jacob.

  27. No, I hadn’t seen that discussion. Tom was correct. To me, the confusion is that the light green is on the map but not the key. I’ll keep an eye out for any changes made at WBZ.

    It’s great that people like Jacob are so responsive.

  28. Thank you all! Brother is sad but taking the news pretty well, all things considered. He’s been through a lot this year. Now we can hope for some stability and more settling in where he is now. I know he’d rather be home, but this is the best place he can be right now.

    I’m going to take a look back at the weather stuff in a bit (00z) then refresh it in the morning (06z info), then try to write up a good discussion for the morning update. 🙂

  30. To add to the thunderstorm outlook on Boston tv weather casts, I was quite surprised when ch 5 showed marginal thunderstorm chances in YELLOW today.

    I get it, very few tv watchers follow spc outlooks.

    But for someone who does and knows the spc color codes, my brain momentarily spun.

    1. I believe if they are going to show those, they should stick to SPC’s colors for consistency.

      But I’ll be honest when I say I’m not surprised that this happened on that channel during that weathercast.

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