Monday August 7 2023 Forecast (7:21AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

The most unsettled portion of this 5-day period will be today and Tuesday, as low pressure tracks from the Upper Ohio Valley / eastern Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley. We’ll have a few rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. After some “blink-and-you’ll-miss-it” early morning sun in eastern areas today, clouds quickly thicken and shower round #1 comes in ahead of a warm front. This area will be fairly benign and may not even wet the ground in some locations, while others get a bit more rainfall. Expect this to be moving out of the region during midday leaving just isolated sprinkles and light showers around with lots of clouds for the remainder of the day and evening. As the warm front passes you’ll notice a spike in humidity, but it won’t get that warm today due to lack of solar heating. Round #2 of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move through the region overnight and the first half of Tuesday morning. The area will be moving west to east, but the cells within it may have more of a northeast or north movement to them, and while I’m not expecting widespread severe weather, we have to watch some individual cells for the potential to become severe storms – primary threat damaging wind gusts. Any rain that’s heavy enough long enough can lead to local flash flooding. Another break comes midday into afternoon even with some sun possible, but another round of at least scattered showers and storms is expected later in the day into the evening as the cold front trailing the low moves across. Some of these storms can be strong too, but not expecting widespread big storms / severe weather. Just keep a close eye on the weather, especially if you’ll be outside or traveling in the area. Once that cold front goes by we’ll get into a drier westerly air flow behind low pressure which will be exiting the continent via southeastern Canada and Wednesday. Expect a breezy day with some passing fair weather clouds, otherwise quite nice with warm air but lower humidity. Any pop-up showers will stay in the mountains to our north. Thursday will be a nice summer day with fair weather, less wind – a southwest breeze – a bit higher humidity but not oppressive, and warm air. If you made beach plans (*raising my hand*) this is the beach pick of the week. The next disturbance approaching the region from the west sends its clouds into the region later in the day, and current timing suggests that the greatest shower chance with this may come overnight late Thursday night or early Friday morning, before Friday ends up as a mostly fair weather day. Previously I had been thinking Friday’s daytime would be more unsettled, but this may not be the case. I’ll eye it and update it as we go…

TODAY: Quick sun eastern areas early, otherwise mainly cloudy. Showers move in west to east this morning exiting during midday, with just isolated showers possible thereafter. Highs 71-78. Dew point climbing into the 60s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in wind-protected areas. Isolated evening showers. Widespread showers and possible thunderstorms arrive west to east overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with showers and possible thunderstorms. Scattered downpours may cause brief flash flooding. Partial sun for a while midday into afternoon. Mostly cloudy again later with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms returning west to east. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible around some thunderstorms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog in wind-protected areas mainly in the evening. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing somewhat by the end of the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant first half of day, clouds increase later in the day. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm late evening and overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

The pattern will be generally zonal – a west to east flow – with passing disturbances. Shower/thunderstorm chances are highest August 13 and/or 14. Much of the time will feature rain-free weather. Temperatures fairly close to normal overall, but no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

A continuation of a generally zonal flow pattern with passing disturbances. Specific timing impossible but will watch for a couple shower and thunderstorm threats during this time. Temperatures may trend a bit warmer/hotter during this period with a little more northward displacement of the jet stream and a little more high pressure off the East Coast.

120 thoughts on “Monday August 7 2023 Forecast (7:21AM)”

    2. Yikes. I’m very happy my daughter and family came home a day early as that is the area they drive

  5. Wasn’t on the computer yesterday and just read about your brother’s dog, TK. Reading it brought tears to my eyes. I am so sorry. We have lost pets too in the past too. But your brother’s dog is in a good place now but will always be missed.

  7. I shouldn’t have bragged last week about our VHF/UHF Transceiver w/the Amateur Service. Something is wrong with the transmitter and w/possible severe weather coming we will have to rely on TV and our Smartphones which sometimes don’t seem so smart. The Weather Service will fix it at some date.

      1. This is an old one. My husband and me are Amateur Radio Operators. We both were active and got our licenses back in the early 80’s. We joined an amateur radio group and were active for some yrs. I never go on anymore but occasionally my husband does. He still has some old equipment (radios and cables and such) but only goes on rarely. The VHF/UHF that I use to listen to the weather is quite old but now someone my husband knows says has to get someone to fix it in another location. You can’t talk on this radio but I rely on it sometimes for weather. (of course I rely on WHW, too!)

      1. Thanks JpDave. 🙂

        Teacher mtg day 3 weeks from today. My favorite day of the year, LOL, though it’s nice to see everyone.

        Students Tues-Thursday 29th-31st, then a 4 day Labor Day weekend.

        I fell asleep last night thinking about the geometry unit we start off with, so the brain is starting to get into school mode. 🙂

  10. Thanks TK.

    So sorry about your brother’s dog. Hope he doesn’t let it discourage him in his recovery.

    1. It’s funny.

      Marginal, slight, moderate, high seem to be a nice order.

      But enhanced seems out of order in their scale, to me anyway.

      I take enhanced to be more than moderate but less than high. Yet, moderate is worse than enhanced in their scale. Oh well 🙂

      1. I remember when the SPC didn’t have five levels when they issued their severe weather outlooks.
        It used to be slight moderate and high.

      2. Agree 100%
        Most confusing!!
        Why don’t they simply add another category so it is:

        general
        Slight
        Slihanced
        Moderate
        High

        No Matter what one calls that category between slight
        and Moderate, it makes no sense!!!!!

        SPC get your act together!

        1. I always have to check to see which is worse, marginal or slight. I looked up and the definition didn’t help a whole lot. And I agree re enhanced.

          MRGL (dark green) – Marginal risk – An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity. 2-SLGT (yellow) – Slight risk – An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.

        2. Call me wrong if you want. Wouldn’t it be easier to have::

          Slight
          General
          Moderate
          High

          Although General and Moderate almost the same. Maybe give “possible” percentages on the possibility of a tornado? Just so confusing.

  14. I wonder if there’s any day 2 implication to the spc day 1 upgrade.

    Seems this morning, the soundings were even more impressive than was projected yesterday and last evening.

    So, will the atmosphere over our region be more impressive tomorrow than it’s being projected to be currently ?

  15. Quick peak at the latest SREF showing that low tornado risk for parts of SNE between 2AM -8AM Tuesday morning.

  17. Norton NWS discussion for tomorrow AM

    The other concern will revolve around the isolated severe weather
    potential. We tend to see these setups a couple times a year. Many
    times are are able to escape them without severe weather if they
    remain disorganized and just produce torrential rainfall and some
    gusty winds. However…this setup may also produce isolated severe
    weather if the mesoscale environment can be harnessed…but that is
    usually a near term/mesoscale type of forecast. Anytime you have a
    southern LLJ 3-4 standard deviations above normal with 70+
    dewpoints…severe weather is a possibility and elevated t-storms
    can become surface based even during the overnight hours. While
    these setups usually do not produce widespread severe
    weather…there certainly is an isolated severe weather threat with
    strong jet dynamics and ample 0-1 KM low level helicity on the warm
    front. Localized wind damage and a brief tornado/waterspout are
    possible in this environment. In fact…the Colorado State Machine
    Learning probs along with the SPC SREF tornado ingredients parameter
    indicate this low risk. The risk for this threat would increase if
    we can develop a secondary low /triple point/ setup which would
    enhance low level helicity. That will again come down to the
    mesoscale/nowcast type of situation…but will need to be watched
    closely.

  18. Interesting stat about the moderate risk for parts of the Mid Atlantic from Meteorologist Eric Webb

    Today’s SPC moderate risk along the Blue Ridge mountains in Virginia is the first one in over 15 years. For parts of far northwestern NC (Ashe Co, NC) this is the first moderate risk ever!

  19. Here is the NCAR ARW WRF 15km Forecast
    Vorticity Generation Potential

    Vorticity Generation Parameter (m/s**2)
    The VGP Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m/s**2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

    https://ibb.co/jrBR7Ck

  20. From Ryan Hanrahan for tomorrow morning
    As a warm front moves through around daybreak tomorrow there is a risk for a severe thunderstorm or isolated tornado over southern New England. This time of year you always need to watch a warm front closely as low level wind shear is maximized and rotating storms can form.

    1. So true. I believe this was the situation for the Cape tornadoes a few years ago, and the one in Dudley or Webster, MA
      and also the Revere tornado several years ago..

        1. Indeed. Just read the NWS discussion. Most interesting.
          Sure, could be that NOTHING happens, but we’ll need
          to watch for sure. 🙂 These things can be sneaky.
          the NAM, 3KM NAM and HRRR all show this possibility but ALL have the mostly likely locations all over the place.
          It will be a NOW CAST situation tomorrow AM for sure.

          1. Radar Scope with Storm Relative Velocity display will be the order of the morning watching for those red/Green or stronger couplets.

  21. A brief return to summerlike weather for a few days later this week across much of Britain, but it won’t last long. The area of high pressure won’t stick around. This is one of those “summer happened on a Thursday” summers, something I grew accustomed to in the 80s and 90s when I was there.

  23. the 12Z NAM, 3KM NAM and the HRRR all hint at
    a tornado threat for tomorrow AM.
    Something to watch. Even so, risk is actually quite low, but it is NOT zero. 🙂

  24. JpDave I don’t think that will be the only tornado watch you see down that area today. Parts of the Mid Atlantic really under the gun for not only isolated tornadoes but damaging wind gusts of 70mph. You don’t see the moderate risk often for that part of the country.

  25. The next 10 Red Sox games are against three teams with current winning percentages of .319, .441, and .438. It will be a very bad sign if they miss out on this opportunity.

    1. These are the Sox winning percentages against teams over and under .500 this year.

      Over: .535
      Under: .475

  27. Washington D.C. is included in that higher tornado threat area.
    Damaging Wind Gusts in addition to the tornado threat down there.

  28. From WJLA Tv The ABC Station In Washington D.C. to show how you don’t see a moderate risk often in this area.

    The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the DMV to the ‘Moderate’ risk category for the first time in 10 years. The last time we had a ‘Moderate’ risk of severe weather was on June 13, 2013

  30. This is just adding fuel down there. This is one time you want the forecast to bust. I think were going to see a lot of wind damage reports coming out of there along with a couple tornado reports.

  31. No surprise Tornado Watch up for D.C. Richmond Baltimore metro areas
    Some of the highlights from this watch
    Primary threats include…
    A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
    Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
    Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

    1. WHAT?????????????????????????????????????????????

      850 temp of 27C That equates to an approximate attainable
      surface temperature of 108 !!!!!!!

      18Z maps show generally 101-103, but that is NOT the hottest part of the day. Have to look at the 3-5 PM temps.

      That would be an OUTRAGEOUSLY HOT DAY with Possible
      Power Outages. VERY DANGEROUS!!!

      Of course the EURO and CMC do NOT go out that far!!!

      1. Oh I doubt it will happen.

        The 00z will probably have 65-70 the same time frame out.

        It was just silly enough, I had to post it 🙂

      2. Same problems we always see.

        The upgrade of the GFS was a complete failure in every aspect of what it was supposed to fix.

        It still over-forecasts precip. It still over-forecasts heat.
        It still creates fictionalcanes.

        The model is trash. They really need to just start over.

  38. My sister is in Centreville, VA. She should be getting that line in about 30 mins. Southern end is tornado warned.

        1. Yes. I think the conditions are best there for rotation and the line flares right over that area. Will monitor short range guidance. HRRR / RRSF should have a good handle on this event.

  40. Are you more partial to severe weather, either wind or rain, given events of today? Any ideas on most likely timing? Thanks

    1. 2 areas I am concerned with.

      1) South Shore to South Coast and maybe some distance up the I-95 belt from RI eastward 7AM-12PM. Coverage >50%.
      2) I-90 belt northward east of I-495 late-day. Coverage <50%.

      1. Thanks. What does the over under coverage mean? You think there will be early morning storms? Rain amounts seem to be all over the map.

        1. I’m just referring to the areal coverage of the rainfall.

          Amounts are going to vary more because it’s convective. This is not the same as a more uniform stratiform rain event. With showers and storms you can be dry in one town and have a 2+ inch deluge in the next one.

  41. WBZ has fixed the quirk with the severe weather map that I discussed yesterday. This morning, I noticed that the light green non-severe area was no longer displayed. Jacob sent me another email saying “For the time being, I’ve removed the light green shade so there isn’t any confusion.”

    Tonight the light green is back and the associated “LOW” has been added to the legend:
    https://ibb.co/prQ4701

    I’m very impressed with how quickly this was fixed.

      1. Thanks.

        My daughter has school dance practice all week starting at 8am, so I got up at 7:30am this morning.

        I think I might set the alarm a little earlier tomorrow and see what’s happening.

      1. Be safe Captain, hope summer has been fun and adventurous. I’m starting to think about school again. 🙂

          1. Ours is the 28th, then the students 29th-31st.

            I’m planning getting into my room sometime the week of the 14th -18th to set up.

      2. Be safe also, Captain. Ans everyone In the areas TK outlined. We have a number of whw family members in those areas

  44. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sim_ir&rh=2023080800&fh=13&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    This link, the radar simulation, if we look at the cloud, I think it’s showing the thunderstorm tops being blown from WSW to ENE

    But …..

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023080800&fh=13&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    At the SFC in eastern New England, the winds are from the S.

    I suspect at 700 and 850 mb, we’d find SW winds so there’s definitely turning of the wind with height.

  47. Providence-Worcester-Nashua, NH points eastward …. At the surface, report SSE or SE sfc winds

    In the southern half of that zone, dps are into the low 70s

    Individual tiny showers popping and some are increasing in intensity.

    Let’s see what happens or doesn’t, hopefully.

      1. So far all very weak…
        But it does show you the potential if something gets going just right.

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