Tuesday August 8 2023 Forecast (7:20AM)

295 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

A trough moving slowly through eastern portions of the region this morning to midday will be the focus for waves of downpours and a few thunderstorms. The primary occurrence of these will be from I-495 trending eastward, especially in the I-95 belt, with torrential rain and flash flooding as the greatest threat, and isolated wind damage / brief tornado being a much lower but non-zero threat. Activity will shift eastward by or after midday with a lull, then a cold front will be swinging through toward evening with one more round of scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms, this time activity favoring the I-90 belt northward. Occurrences of heavy rain will be much more brief with the second round of activity, minimizing the flood threat, but brief ponding of water can occur on some roads and especially in poor drainage areas where these occur. The low pressure area responsible for this weather departs via southeastern Canada overnight and sets up a nice day for Wednesday with a drying westerly air flow and high pressure to our southwest. This high will slide off to the east by Thursday allowing it to be a bit warmer and more humid. At the same time the next disturbance and frontal system will be racing our way via the Great Lakes / Upper Midwest. By later in the day, a shower and thunderstorm threat will increase. My current feeling on this is that activity will have most support to occur south of I-90 (higher coverage) and in southwestern NH to central MA (scattered heavier activity). Will monitor and fine-tune. Unsettled weather hangs around for Thursday night but moves out quickly to set up a Friday that will be similar to Wednesday – a nice day. Saturday will hang onto the nice weather as another bubble of high pressure slides to the south, but increased humidity and the next approaching disturbance may allow for late-day showers again favoring western portions of the forecast area (southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT) but this timing and location is not high confidence given it’s day 5, and obviously some adjustments may be needed.

TODAY: Cloudy this morning with waves of showers and thunderstorms including torrential downpours, especially east of I-495, with local flash flooding. Partial sun with only isolated showers first half of afternoon, then heavier clouds with another shower / thunderstorm possible, especially I-90 northward, later in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible around some downpours/thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog in wind-protected areas mainly in the evening. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing somewhat by the end of the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant first half of day, then variably cloudy afternoon. Showers by late-day favoring south of I-90 and late-day scattered showers and thunderstorms southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

The pattern will be generally zonal – a west to east flow – with passing disturbances bringing occasional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures slightly variable but close to seasonal normals overall.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Slightly more southwesterly air flow overall may allow a bit more heat to sneak in, otherwise no major changes to the general pattern.

295 thoughts on “Tuesday August 8 2023 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  4. HRRR / RRSF both doing well on this event.

    3km NAM may have been slightly overdone on last evening’s run (00z) but not too bad in general.06z run fine I think based on what it had and what’s occurring now.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK. Monitoring Radar Scope.
    Problem with this set up, is that unless one is watching every moment. something could come and go and one would never know. 🙂

    1. I think when those echoes South of CT and RI move up towards
      the Boston area, something could pop. Anywhere from RI to Boston’s North Shore. Somewhere in there is where to watch.
      We shall see. Hopefully, it is nothing but down pours.

  15. Vickie, IF you are out there, but on the look out for this
    one as it heads towards Sutton. You “may” be far enough
    South to avoid, but I am not sure.

    1. That’s good ! I think for the moment, the cell elongated and may have cut the SE inflow into it off.

    1. No Threat in your area at this time.
      The couplet disappeared.

      Frankly, I think the NWS was a little premature with this one.
      I guess, they wanted to err on the side of caution.
      Just my opinion. 🙂

  20. Thanks, TK.

    Pardon my ignorance, I see the word “couplet” and I’m unsure what it means meteorologically. It has a meaning in poetry: A pair of end-rhymed lines of verse that are self-contained in grammatical structure and meaning. For example, Seuss’s:

    I do not like
    green eggs and ham
    I do not like them
    Sam I am

    1. In this case the couplet is a representation of wind
      moving towards the radar and away from the radar in a confined area, indicating rotation.

      On radar scope for instance, it would be reds vs green
      with green representing echoes moving towards the radar
      and reds moving away from the radar.

  22. Watching up by Marlborough. Sw of them.

    With this modern radar technology, it’s capable of picking up all the rotations in these storms.

    And with the SE sfc flow in eastern third of mass, it’s very easy for these cells to probably have SE inflow into part of the cell and so many may rotate somewhat in the next couple of hours.

    Hopefully, nothing gets out of control.

    1. I totally agree. This is the whole reason the SPC placed us
      in the 2% category.

      So far the area out by Marlborough is Benign. 🙂
      But there is early indication of rotation. We’ll watch

  23. Thanks TK
    Yesterday the morning hours was talked about for a possible isolated tornado to happen somewhere in SNE.

  25. And one around Woburn, northwest of Medford. Weak couplet now, but cell seems to be strengthening.

  26. Many counties in RI and parts of Bristol and Plymouth Counties in SE MA have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning now.

    The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a

    * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
    Southwestern Plymouth County in southeastern Massachusetts…
    Central Bristol County in southeastern Massachusetts…
    Washington County in Rhode Island…
    Newport County in Rhode Island…
    Eastern Kent County in Rhode Island…
    Southeastern Providence County in Rhode Island…
    Bristol County in Rhode Island…

    * Until 1015 AM EDT.

    * At 917 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near South
    Kingstown, moving northeast at 35 mph.

    HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

    * Locations impacted include…
    New Bedford, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Taunton, East
    Providence, Coventry, Dartmouth, South Kingstown, West Warwick,
    North Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Somerset, Portsmouth,
    Barrington, Middletown, Fairhaven, Narragansett, and Swansea.

  28. The thunderstorm with the tornado it looks like the rotation is broad and not as a tight as it was when the warning was issued. Still you got watch and see if this tightens up again. Five more minutes left on that tornado warning.

    2. There’s a lot of heavy rain east of that cell.

      I have to think that warm air inflow is now cooled and ineffective.

      But the Marlborough cell has no rain east or southeast of it.

  30. Question. I’m to take granddaughter to Sutton center area for her riding lesson around 11:30. I can’t tell if there is a break in rain headed this way. If this is going to go in and off all morning into afternoon, I am not sure I want to be on the road or away from a basement. Thoughts on whether we should delay lesson till this afternoon.

    Thank you. We are out of basement now. JPD was right. Our house barely made it into the warning box

    1. My instinct is to say it will be east of you by then.

      There can be another afternoon tstorm after that, more scattered.

      Be safe whatever you choose to do 🙂

    1. I don’t get it. I am usually reasonably decent identifying
      the couplets and I do NOT see anything in Middlesex county.

      The closest thing is the one TOM described out by Hudson
      and Stowe and even that one just went UNINTERESTING! 🙂

  34. I could be completely wrong …..

    I think the best setup for these rotating storms is very nearby obviously and on the eastern edge of the convection.

    While the RI storms will contain torrential rain, lightning and winds, some potentially impressive, I’m not sure they will rotate as much as these smaller cells nearby.

    Again, this hypothesis could be very wrong.

  35. I don’t remember so many changes re: tornadoes or storms. I know they can pulse but it all seems weird. In Sudbury we have had heavy rain and one little bit of thunder.. No wind. Very interesting but kind of scary day ahead. And the South Shore might be getting into more action too.

  37. The 2 cells I’m watching are north of Burlington, MA and just east of Marlborough.

    Perhaps some weak rotation ?

  39. I am concerned about an area out by Franklin and Medway.
    Looks like some broad rotation now. Precarious position
    in relation to the storm cell. Needs to be watched.

  40. Convection seems to get getting stronger and more organized over the SouthCoast: Tiverton RI, New Bedford and Fall River.

  42. Niece at home and daughter in law at work are in Franklin on medway line. Is that area a concern

    And I’d sure hate to see anything head toward Boston.

  43. The severe thunderstorm warning for the Boston area is a joke!
    Plenty of rain and some lightning, but NO wind.

    1. Be safe JPD and Philip. Where is Philip. Or have I just missed his posts?

      Son is at work in museum of science area. Assuming if S SW of JP then also not near his area

  47. It looks like a backwards C is starting to form with that thunderstorm which is an indicator of strong wind gusts. This was the case with the thunderstorm that went through the Philadelphia area last evening.

  50. Lexington Woburn, 128 on northern side has less wind it torrential rain.
    On what looks like a mini cold front, if you will, has the strongS and SE winds just ahead of it.

  57. If anyone wants to see a supercell rotate overall, go to the channel 5 interactive radar and move the radar back and forth about the last hour.

  58. The storm that JpDave identified and has provided screen shots with a possible waterspout is coming ashore just and I mean just south of New Bedford.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tornado warning.

  59. Once again very heavy rain. A familiar theme this summer. No thunder or lightning, however.

    I’m sure the ducks are liking it.

  62. Tornado Warning up western barnstable southeastern plymouth east central bristol counties until 1145 AM

    1. Yes, but there’s was a couple minutes/miles ?? where it was very tight with bright bright colors and a matching hook echo.

      1. Oh, I agree 100%. That one looked NASTY!!!
        Tightest rotation I have seen around here since the
        Revere Tornado several years ago and I think this one
        may have surpassed that.

        We should be getting reports of significant damage or whole forest areas destroyed.

  69. These things cycle so while it could be weakening I would not be surprised if this things strengthens back up.

      1. Me too and I have not done 1/4 of what you guys have done

        THANK YOU to everyone especially Tom, JPD and jimmy James. Although thank you is hardly enough

  71. We talked about this yesterday that there were ingredients in place for an isolated tornado to happen.

  72. That was another massive circulating supercell. I can see it looping the radar. And on the southeast side of it, I am nearly certain we will have had a impactful tornado.

  73. Looking at the debris signature you would have to think there was a strong likelihood a tornado touched down.

  74. Watch out in wareham east to the cape cod bridges.
    Doesn’t look anywhere as bad at its max, but JJ is right, it could recycle and it’s on a track for the bridges and canal.

    There’s a busy huge campground on the canal and obviously the bridges.

    2. Right now, I am looking at the Falmouth/Barnstable area.
      Composite echo looks threatening and I see signs of rotation
      developing.

  75. Looking at the Radar Scope loop, it does look like the image I captured represented the tightest rotation of that particular
    event.

    That is really tight rotation!!!!!

  76. With the new severe thunderstorm warning there is a tornado possible attached with the warning.

  79. I believe that is why that tornado possible is attached to the warning. If damage is done to your property it doesn’t matter what it is tornado straight line winds.

  81. Currently a severe thunderstorm warning for that area until 12:30pm. You don’t need a tornado to cause damage a severe thunderstorm could do it as well.

  83. At least as of 11:45pm, that area we are now concerned about definitely has a gap on its east and southeast side, where it’s not raining, so that SE inflow has the ability to work into the storm:

    The southeast winds look like their coming around to the north side while the west winds are getting towards the south side of the cell.

  84. If this keeps up, we may see an IMPRESSIVE photo of
    a water spout on Cape Cod Bay. Wouldn’t that be something????

    2. Yes, our phones just beeped.
      We’re in Centerville; the rain has stopped, but we’re still hearing some thunder.
      We don’t have WiFi here, or good radar. Any updates from those of you who can see what’s coming would be appreciated!

  87. A coworker is on Route 6 right now I. The Hyannis/Osterville area and said there is no wind but a lot of rain.

    1. Good. A friend is in east sandwich. Said lightning is ramping up and rain is torrential.

      I’d like nothing more than to have this whole darned thing move out of here.

      Hope your coworker stays safe and you also

  88. And just south of the western side of Barnstable harbor, the thunderstorms continue and almost looked bowed out with strong winds.

    Strong SSE winds ahead of this storm too.

    Even if a tornado didn’t hit the ground on the cape, I think there’ll be wind damage down there from this cell.

  89. That bow echo a sign of damaging wind gusts. With all the rain happening your probably not going to see the tornado if there is one.

  91. We don’t forget about the flash flood warning for the Boston area where radar is estimating 2 and 3.5 inches has fallen. Eastern MA has taken it on the chin today.

            1. There’s a storm back southwest if you out in Nantucket sound, not far offshore.

              Just keep tabs to the NWS or tv until it passes by centerville. No major rotation, but it looks like a strong thunderstorm.

  94. What is the likelihood of more rain this afternoon in Natick? Judging from your comments above, showers will be more north of the pike and less intense. Maybe I have answered my own question but wanted to see if anything has changed.

    Thanks.

  96. These areas in the flood warning could very easily have more than a months supply of rain in a short amount of time. I remember last month in Waterbury close to 5 inches fell in a 3 hour span and it caused flooding issues in parts of the downtown area and other streets in the city.

  98. JPD I think all the warnings were warranted.
    A storm with weak meso may not produce a tornado but a quick microburst can come out of nowhere, literally.

    I think it’s more important the public is aware of potential and realize why the warning was issued, even if they see nothing. Communication is key though.

    You want to minimize false alarms but at the same time we can’t under-warn. Fine line there.

  99. TK, did you see the impressive couplet down northeast of New Bedford ?

    Any initial thoughts ?? Thanks.

    1. It looked impressive for the brief time I got to see it, but not hearing any damage reports from that area yet.

      Mattapoisett looks rough though, at least in a small area.

    1. Sun has been out here most of day after the warning expired. There are now dark clouds mixed with sun. And the air is thick enough to cut with a knife

    1. Awesome Vicki !!

      That initial supercell near Boston sure dumped a lot of rain along and north of its track !

  102. TK – Will there be any more activity late afternoon/early evening or has the atmosphere “rained” itself out, if you will?

    Fwiw, radar from Worcester westward into NYS just a few specs.

    Humidity still with us, peaks of sun at times.

  103. I thought we got the afternoon off 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Atmosphere should be less conducive to spinups this afternoon.

    Yet, a cell north of pepperell is a bit interesting.

  104. I just got a notice on my phone that the NWS confirmed and then when I clicked on it, I couldn’t see what it was?
    I presume confirmed tornado in the Marion area.

    1. I did find this

      Tornado confirmed in southeastern Massachusetts
      WJAR
      https://turnto10.com › news › local › severe-weather-f…
      3 hours ago — A National Weather Service survey team can confirm a tornado did occur in Mattapoisett at about 11:30 a.m. Tuesday.

    1. Based only on the couplet I saw, I would say this comes in
      at an EF-2 and not an EF-0 or EF-1. Curious to learn
      what it was.

      1. Looking at the photo Vickie posted, it was hard to tell whether
        or not the tree was uprooted or snapped off some number of feet above the ground. IF snapped off, then it lend credence
        to the EF-2 as opposed to a 0 or 1. We shall see how full of Bleep I am. 🙂

    2. From Channel 4

      MATTAPOISETT – A tornado was confirmed in Mattapoisett during Tuesday’s storms.

      The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning there around 11 a.m. The agency then sent a survey team to the town and confirmed “a tornado did take place” in a statement Tuesday afternoon.

      Researchers are still inspecting the damage and data to determine the tornado’s EF-rating and where it started and ended.

      There have been no reports of any serious injuries.

      The National Weather Service expects to release a more detailed report later on Tuesday.

      Related: Is it unusual to have this many tornadoes in Massachusetts?

      This was the third confirmed tornado in Massachusetts this summer.

      On July 16th, an EF-0 tornado with estimated winds of 80 mph touched down briefly in North Brookfield damaging trees in the area. It traveled about two miles.

      On Saturday July 29th, an EF-1 tornado with estimated maximum winds of 105 mph touched down in Foxboro near Easton and Mansfield. It lasted about 300 yards.

      A total of three tornado warnings were issued during the torrential rain storms Tuesday, which left several roads flooded in eastern Massachusetts.

    1. Holy crap batman!
      That kooks like one of those mid-west tornadoes
      Makes me want to say it was an EF-3!!!!!

      thanks JJ

      1. That actually looks like a scud bomb.

        We can’t identify that as rotating or not from a photo, but based on the appearance and the clouds around it, it may be a ragged symmetrical wall cloud, or just a scud bomb.
        We also can’t rank a tornado’s strength by appearance. That’s movie stuff, not science. 🙂

  108. For New England that is a good size funnel cloud which if it did touch the ground and were assuming it did it would then be a tornado.

  110. Per Taunton discussion, Lawrence airport rec’d 6.23 inches of rain this morning.

    It was wild to watch that rotating storm and the one northwest of the cape.

    They looked the same on radar, like a cyclone.

    There’s a band of torrential rain out ahead, almost looking like a warm front and then a squall line, looking like a cold front and torrential rain with not much wind under the big circulation that can clearly dump incredible rains.

    But I’m not surprised when we could see all the s and se inflow into the storm. That’s a copious amount of warmth and humidity being ingested into the overall storm.

  111. Flooding has been a problem in Boston. It’s not just because of the torrential downpours. It’s also because of the elevated water table. Just went to the local Thai restaurant and they were temporarily closed due to flooding. It’s the third time this summer. I know the owner so he let me in to inspect the widespread water damage. The restaurant is located in a basement, hence the vulnerability. Indeed, in my building it’s been a similar scenario at the basement and garden level.

    The humidity outside is really quite something, by the way. Boston feels like Accra.

    I hope the tornado that was confirmed didn’t hurt anyone and that the damage was limited.

    I think that with these storms most of the damage will be water-related. For example, I’ve heard from other acquaintances and friends that leaking roofs causing extensive water damage on the interior of homes have been a recurring issue this summer.

  112. Philip..
    Only isolated to widely scattered from here to sunset. Isolated after that.

    1. I can see that from here. Beautiful towering cumulus, bright cauliflower top, dark base. I love those clouds. 🙂

  114. Re: Is it unusual to have this many tornadoes in MA?
    The answer: no. This summer’s pattern favors several occurrences of low level wind shear tropical air tornadoes.
    We see this tornadoes FAR better than we used to with older radar. New England averages 8 tornadoes per year, long term average, but it may be a tad higher than that if you take into account we used to miss a lot of these types.

  115. That Needham / Newton flood area on I-95. There has been a drainage issue in that location for a quite a while. I drove by there on a chase a few weeks ago – and it wasn’t even raining as heavily for as long, and the same thing … needs addressing. But it doesn’t help that this section of road is at the bottom of a topographical bowl….

    2. Time to correct your geography – that is absolutely NOT Newton/Needham.

      The video referenced above from I-95 south shows it approaching the Route 20 Exit, which is on the western edge of Waltham. Just south of Route 20, the highway actually moves from Waltham into Weston. It doesn’t get into Newton until you cross the Charles River just south of the Pike, and it only stays in Newton for a few hundred yards, crossing into Wellesley when you cross the Charles River again. You don’t actually get to Needham until you cross Route 9.

      1. You might be right. Perhaps let the person who posted this know. But if you are traveling south on 95 as you approach the exit ramp to route 20 (a route I could drive blindfolded) which is a large roundabout, wouldn’t the picture/flooding be just north of the route 20 exit.

        Although I cannot make out two overpass roads over 128/95.

        1. Misread your post. Didn’t see period on my phone between Waltham and Just.

          I am surprised I cannot see evidence of a double overpass but then the visibility is lousy. I am not familiar with south of route 20 on 128 but thought I should have seen evidence of the mass pike based in posters location. Either way. My guess is traffic was backed up well north of Rt 20 overpass. And in all my years….Seven decades…traveling that route, I have never seen it flood

    1. Low end EF-1. 95 MPH. 0.9 mile path length. Max width 300 yards. Took place over a 3-minute span from 11:20 to 11:23 traveling steadily northeastward from Hereford Hill Rd to North Street.

  117. wow! EF-1.
    That was an unreal couplet. I would have sworn it was a higher rating. Goes to show you how much I know. 🙂
    Oh well, quite the day, none-the-less.

  118. I’ve peaked at the 18z HRRR and 3km NAM for Thursday afternoon (HRRR) and Thursday evening/early into the night (3km NAM).

    Not advocating todays setup but we’re definitely tstorm susceptible and a warm humid southeast New England with S sfc winds and SW flow aloft.

    We’ll see as this gets closer.

    The jet stream is too darn suppressed. It needs to head north and take the dynamics with it.

    I say, Uncle, for Thursday later already.

    1. Wow. These kids are amazing. Love watching. Have not had time today. I was watching whw all day. I didn’t see MA vs Me yesterday but know MA (Canton) was still in running .

  120. For the couplet, you have to consider the proximity to the radar and the level. This was not a classic meso, but a low level wind shear tropical one. Two different animals. They are definitely right with the EF-1 / 95 MPH assessment.

    2. Oh of course they are right 🙂

      Just giving JpDave a job well done today, he was great identifying the rotating storms.

  121. JPD, thank you for providing information on “couplets.” I’m collecting meteorological terms that have very different meanings in everyday parlance. Couplet is one. Convection is another. Benchmark another. Etcetera …

    1. Ch 5 just announced NWS determined that was an EF 0 tornado, 80 mph on the ground 4 minutes.

      I think that’s what Kelly Ann just said at 7:15pm

  123. Watching the news, wow so many towns impacted by the torrential rains.

    One business, I think in Andover, a restaurant survived Covid, the Merrimack valley natural gas issue, but was really impacted by todays flash flooding.

    Owner was nearly in tears, he didn’t know if he was going to be able to bring his restaurant back.

        1. Thank you.

          And where is the photo from?

          My familiarity stops at the exit to Humarock. I didn’t know there is a Rochester ma till today

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