Wednesday August 9 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)

138 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

A westerly air flow behind departing low pressure provides a nice day today with a sun/cloud mix and lower humidity. The breeze will settle down later as a bubble of high pressure to the southwest moves close, then this high will scoot off to the east on Thursday, and after a tranquil night tonight, we’ll experience a southerly breeze tomorrow, not too strong, but one that will transport higher dew point air into the region ahead of the next approaching disturbance. This disturbance has support from a pretty strong jet stream and has a bit of a complex set-up involved with it. I’m looking for a trough to approach later in the day with the possibility of some combination dynamic / diurnal thunderstorms to fire off mainly west of I-495, though this activity should be fairly isolated. At the same time a wave of low pressure will be racing eastward toward southern New England. This system is progged by the majority of guidance to have its center pass somewhere over southern New England late Thursday night to early Friday. While a swath of showers will accompany it, near and just south of its track will find support for individual convective showers and thunderstorms which can display rotation and a possible tornado threat. This is something we’ll have to keep a close eye on from dusk to dawn. Improvement follows quickly on Friday as the disturbance exits the region. Expect a day somewhat similar to the one we will experience today. The weekend looks pretty decent as it stands now, but we’ll have to watch the next disturbance and its timing. I think this one is more of a trough passage sometime between Saturday late night and Sunday midday. That time window would be away from maximum solar heating and may limit the shower and thunderstorm chance. So if you have weekend plans, just keep in mind that somewhere in there is the chance of an interruption in outdoor plans but for the most part it’s looking pretty decent.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point around 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing somewhat by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant first half of day, then variably cloudy afternoon. Late-day thunderstorms possible west of I-495. Evening showers eastern CT to RI. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable around 10 MPH by evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Downpours and thunderstorms possible mostly south of I-90 which may have the ability to produce isolated tornadoes. Areas of fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, can be briefly strong and gusty near any downpours/thunderstorms mainly south of I-90.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower, especially in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

A generally zonal flow pattern is expected, disturbances passing by with a couple shower and thunderstorm chances – most likely August 15 & 17. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

A weaker westerly flow and a little more high pressure domination overall reduces shower/storm opportunities and allows for a little more late summer heat potential during this period.

138 thoughts on “Wednesday August 9 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  1. Public Information Statement
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    400 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023
    …NWS Damage Survey for 08/08/23 Tornado Event in Mattapoisett
    Massachusets…
    Rating: EF-1
    Estimated Peak Wind: 95 mph
    Path Length /statute/: 0.9 miles
    Path Width /maximum/: 300 yards
    Fatalities: 0
    Injuries: 0
    Start Date: 08/08/2023
    Start Time: 11:20 AM EDT
    Start Location: Intersection Achusnet St and Hereford Hill Rd
    Start Lat/Lon: 41.68079/-70.84769
    End Date: 08/08/2023
    End Time: 11:23 AM EDT
    End Location: North St north of Eldorado Dr
    End Lat/Lon: 41.68864/-70.83332
    A small EF-1 tornado touched down in the town of Mattapoisett Massachusetts
    at 11:20 AM EDT. The storm was on the ground for approximately 3 minutes.
    The storm moved to the northeast at approximately 20 MPH and lifted off the
    ground on North Street just north of Eldorado Drive. Numerous large Pine and
    Maple trees were uprooted falling in serveral directions. There were also
    numerous pine trees along the path that were snapped off between 10 and 20
    feet above the ground. The most concentrated damage was found along Eldorado
    Drive by Granada Court

  2. Public Information Statement
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    705 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023
    …NWS Damage Survey for 08/08/23 Tornado Event in Barnstable
    Massachusetts…
    Rating: EF-0
    Estimated Peak Wind: 80 mph
    Path Length /statute/: 1.1 miles
    Path Width /maximum/: 650 yards
    Fatalities: 0
    Injuries: 0
    Start Date: 08/08/2023
    Start Time: 11:52 AM EDT
    Start Location: Evergreen Drive
    Start Lat/Lon: 41.67508/-70.39170
    End Date: 08/08/2023
    End Time: 11:56 AM EDT
    End Location: Joe Thompson Road
    End Lat/Lon: 41.68204/-70.37205
    A small EF-0 tornado touched down in the town of Barnstable, near
    the village of Marstons Mills, at 11:52 AM. The storm tracked ENE
    from Evergreen Drive for approximately four minutes before
    lifting over Joe Thompson Road, at approximately 11:56 AM. The
    primary damage indicators were an uprooted hardwood tree and a
    downed electrical pole, supplemented by strewn debris inclusive
    of smaller trees, fence posts, and branches. The damage was most
    concentrated near the center of the track at the intersection of
    Race Lane and Osterville-West Barnstable Road. Witnesses described
    a chaotic event, observing airborne fence posts and branches.
    We would like to extend special thanks to the Barnstable Police
    Department who assisted in guiding our survey team through the
    areas of most significant damage.

  4. These tropical enviornment low level wind shear tornadoes are fascinating and I’m glad we can see them much better with today’s tech. Imagine how many we missed in decades past…

    And as we have seen now in several examples, these tend to occur more toward the South Coast (though they can occur away from there too).

    Ironically the Thursday night / early Friday nocturnal potential is a similar set-up in some aspects, but not exactly. Most notably the storms may be moving more west to east, as opposed to south to north, with that activity.

    1. And they happen so quickly, that If one doesn’t have their eye on the storm relative velocity display at all times, one could miss a possible tornado very easily.

      I feel for the NWS, because in these situations, often times
      the tornado is GONE by the time they issue a warning.

      What I found fascinating yesterday was that “Possible” areas of concern could be identified prior to a couplet tightening up and possibly producing a tornado. The problem with that
      is if the warning goes out and nothing happens, then there
      may be too many false alarms. An impossible situation
      for the NWS.

      Tom and I identified about 5 or 6 areas of concern, but only
      2 of those areas resulted in an actual tornado.

      All things considered the NWS did an outstanding job yesterday. 3 warnings with 2 confirmed tornadoes. Not too shabby!!!!

  6. Tomorrow’s activity will come at a time when I can’t monitor
    as often as I would like. Someone else will have to man
    the Velocity display. 🙂 I will only be able to check in now and then and not constantly like I was able to do yesterday. 🙂

    1. I’m sorry to hear that but sure appreciate the tremendous effort by you and Tom yesterday.

      Tomorrow my oldest and her oldest will be in Millis in the afternoon late and then driving back to Uxbridge. I will be very uneasy I suspect

  7. Tk,

    Yesterday you indicated that the tornado photo posted here could have been a “scud bomb”

    That actually looks like a scud bomb.

    After seeing the NWS report and seeing the damage, do you still think that? Curious.

    Many thanks

    1. I don’t. I finally got to see video.
      But this is something that is VERY IMPORTANT in spotting. They highly discourage identifying a tornado by a still pic.

      Thankfully there was video to show the rotation.

  8. Ok, One more question to throw out to the group.

    Aside from the actual 2 tornadoes, was there any wind damage reports from “severe thunderstorms”? I don’t think so, but I may have missed it.

    Aside from the tornadoes, the biggest problem yesterday was
    the flooding rains.

    1. We never heard thunder. I have two friends who live directly under the area where the rotation was seen in Sutton and no damage. I want to ask this am if they had thunder.

  10. JpDave from the SPC the wind damage reports from yesterday

    Holliston Large tree and wires down on Ashland Street.

    2 WNW Mattapoisett Trees and wires down on Hereford Hill Rd.

    2 NW Mattapoisett trees and wires down on North Street around Eldorado Dr.

    Barnstable Several reports of trees and wires down and trees blocking the road on West Barnstable Road in Osterville and on Commerce Road at Main Street

    2 WSW Barnstable tree down along Rt 6 near exit 68

    Mattapoisett Numerous trees down in the Tinkham Lane area as well as on Acushnet Road and Stoney Hill Road

  11. Thanks for posting that link with the tornado percentage chance.
    It is the same area outlined from the SPC as was the case yesterday.
    Saturday might be the next watcher for thunderstorms after tomorrow .
    From NWS Boston
    Low level
    SSW wind fields increase to 30-40+ knots, increasing to 50 knots
    from the WSW at 500 mb. This causes sufficent wind shear to
    support strong to severe thunderstorms, especially in CT and
    western MA Saturday evening. The ECMWF has 0-1 km helicity values of 200 with a large area of elevated sigtor parameter across southern New England. This is still 4 days out, but again, cannot rule out an isolated tornado Saturday night.

      1. Nor can I. I do not recall being under a tornado threat until we moved here except the June 1 outbreak. We have been in the basement multiple times since here

  12. Thankfully the Saturday potential is still four days away. From reading the discussion that is a lot of potential wind shear in place for Saturday. The EURO really robust for Saturday and probably does what it usually does overamplifying things.

  13. I am wondering if this is like the winter the EURO shows a big snowstorm potential a few day out then the next run it goes away. I would not be surprised the same thing happens for Saturday where the strong to severe thunderstorm potential goes way down or disappears.

  15. Quick peak at the latest SREF show the same area that had the tornadoes in that low tornado risk at 2AM on Friday.

  17. What is rain/storm chance for tomorrow night in Foxboro? Hoping for decent night for Pats. Thanks.

  21. The 6z (3km NAM) radar simulation looks like yesterday, shifted 30 miles south.

    Looks like another rotating supercell. Big rains with less wind under and just north of its track.

    And truly convective cells southeast of its track, especially Cape and Islands.

    1. Perhaps we escape issues tomorrow evening/night.
      We shall see.

      Some times, these lows pass farther North than projected, but then again sometimes they pass farther South. 🙂
      Perhaps later model runs will have it down.

      For now, relying on the SPC outlook which will be updated at
      1:30 or so.

      It will be interesting IF they move the 2% area farther South or North.

      As You said, this can only help

      12Z HRRR sig tornado parameters

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2023080912&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2023080912&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Clearly keeps the risk to our South. Martha’s Vineyard of all places under the gun.

      IF this area moves North, then the same areas affected yesterday could be under the gun.

  25. I spoke to a friend whose house is directly under the area Wcvb and at least one other station was seeing the rotation. They did not have thunder and lightning and only a mild wind

    As far as people starting to not take warnings seriously, you all know how I feel about the tail wagging the dog. Let them. People who listen and take every warning seriously should not be put at risk because of some who think they know better.

      1. Wcvb was reporting Boston Rd at Burbank. It is about 1/2-3/4 mi outside do the center I’m interested TK know what you saw also. Thank you.

        1. OK, Yes I was following that area. There was certainly some rotation, but it was not super tight. NWS warned it, however, by the time it got to sutton, there wasn’t much left of the couplet. Not surprised there was no wind.

          That couplet never impressed me from the start.
          The only 2 yesterday that did were the
          Mattapoisett and Barnstable areas.
          Yes, there were other areas demonstrating some rotation, but none with the tightness required for
          a tornado. At least not in my opinion.

          The one that approached Sutton was warned. That one was iffy. I did not think it required a warning, while the NWS erred on the side of caution and warned it.
          Better safe than sorry. As I said yesterday, I wouldn’t want to be the one issuing warnings.

  26. Thanks TK.

    My tile floors aren’t sticky anymore, at least for today. I really wish that we would start having the nice dry days outnumber the humid, wet ones. We seem to get 1-1/2 days of the nice stuff then several of the bad. Oh well.

    1. I remember that in the tile floors we had in Framingham. It was a slab ranch. And they could get very slippery.

      1. On very humid days, slippery is hardly the word. Good luck trying to get up from my kitchen chairs.

      1. We’re going to need an ARK!)(*@_)!*@_)#*!_@#*_!@*#_!@*#_)
        That is a crap load of RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

  30. Quick look at a tweet from Ryan hanrahan he is thinking se CT long island Rhode island southeast MA the area where a severe thunderstorm or tornado could happen. Having trouble posting the full tweet but good explanation for tomorrow.

      2. If this were Winter, the low would move more Northward
        and bring us rain , instead of snow. 🙂 🙂

        But, ALAS, it is not Winter. We shall see.

  31. A real rain threat again tomorrow evening/into early tomorrow night along and just north of a potential supercell’s track.

    If it’s the HRRR that verifies, maybe Hartford-Providence-Plymouth get multi inch rains.

    If it’s the 3km NAM that verifies, Mass pike and a bit north again for multi inch rains.

  33. One thing to remember about the NWS in regards to warnings – on days like yesterday, there is someone who just sits and monitors the radar all day. That’s their only responsibility. Plus, they have access to a lot more data than what we see on RadarScope. So, just because the couplet may not look good to you on the one scan you see on your screen doesn’t mean that that radar isn’t showing better rotation at a different altitude.

    1. Good point. Thank you SAK.

      I understand that it is a very difficult decision on warn or no warn with these systems.

    2. Makes sense. Although I’ve seen OS more than once mention a concern before nws issues a warning.

      Re the flooding on 128 yesterday. Traffic is still tight in the area southbound. I was inclined to agree it could have been around route 20. I figured bad visibility was keeping me from seeing the second overpass at the Rt 20 exit. But it is by exit 20 which is wellesley and between needham and newton exits. Around recreation road. Friend went through it on northbound side this am.

      1. That video was very clearly on I-95 south in Waltham. It starts off passing under the no-longer-used railroad bridge, and then right towards the end you can see the signs showing that you were at the exit for Route 20, and that the Mass Pike was in 2 miles.

        https://twitter.com/onlyinbos/status/1688928395789541377?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ

        I have literally driven this route nearly every day for the past 13 years, I know exactly where it is, and have dealt with the flooding there on occasion.

        1. I hit flooding in that exact spot on a recent Friday evening storm chase. It hadn’t even rained today long and it was bad. It’s a terrible drainage spot.

        3. I’m still inclined to agree re area of video. The flooding seems to have started between newton and needham exits. It was still evident this morning. My thought is it backed up to the north or maybe there were two areas. Im happy to give whoever tweeted the video the benefit of the doubt. Even in very bad driving conditions, he or she took time to warn others. The news covered it also.

          https://www.wcvb.com/article/drivers-rescued-from-stranded-cars-on-flooded-highway-ramp-in-needham/44763931

          https://www.wcvb.com/article/drivers-rescued-from-stranded-cars-on-flooded-highway-ramp-in-needham/4476393

            1. You missed the point but that doesn’t surprise me. I’m betting it is far easier driving at highway speeds to see telltale signs while driving highways speed in daylight. But then that is just me

              However, perhaps we can focus on commending the person for taking time to video and warn others rather than denigrating him or her for exact location

              Have a great night sleep well and stay safe tomorrow.

  35. The fact that Rhode Island averages “0” tornadoes per season, does that mean that they don’t get any at all?

    Yes, it may seem like a stupid question but the fact that “zero” is the average mean that a tornado is totally out of the realm of possibility? One would think that being at the water’s edge a waterspout would show up from time to time.

    2. Not if they round to the nearest whole number. For example, if the average is for100 years, RI could have had 49 tornadoes but an average of 0.

      1. Thanks Vicki, yes, it was me. I’ve had these symptoms recently but didn’t think to test. I’m sitting on a plane right now waiting to take off from Logan and seeing a lot more folks masked up

        2. One more question. Did other family members catch this. My brother had the same symptoms. But no one else caught it so I figured it was a cold type thing.

          1. Both my kids had it first, then me. Not my wife though. Lasted about a week but very minor.

              1. Thank you Vicki! I just arrived in Chicago and learned several of my colleagues will not be attending due to positive COVID cases and recent exposures

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  38. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=can&band=09&length=24

    2 very noticeable features in the center.

    Closed low in southern Canada.

    Another disturbance in central US

    The central us disturbance is southern new England’s event late tomorrow / 1st half tomorrow night.

    How those 2 features interact or don’t interact will determine, I believe, how far north the central us disturbance can get.

    I think the global models believe the Canada closed low will suppress the us disturbance, whereas the short range models believe the Canada closed low won’t affect it as much, allowing it to come further north.

    2. Interesting and great loop.

      What you say makes perfect sense.

      We shall see how it all plays out.

  40. Nothing more than a guess, but with the 12z stuff in, I’d go closer to the euro and move that rain band 30 miles northward and skirt MV and Nantucket with the severe weather, trying to blend in some of the shorter range models that are further north.

    Who knows 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I’ve mentioned this before, but a reminder.

      RRFS is HRRR’s eventual replacement. It’s experimental. The switchover was originally to take place soon but it delayed until next year along with a GFS “upgrade”, which I hope this time is an actual upgrade.

      RRFS, so far, seems quite good.

    2. The Middlesex / Essex County bullseye was forecast extremely accurately by HRRR & RRFS.

  43. So, WHW is definitely busier than it was last winter with respect to posting, which is of course due to: a. A dud of a winter in terms of snowfall; b. A rather active summer pattern.

    The rains this summer have been pretty epic, in my opinion. And this applies to all of New England, really.

    I’m concerned that we’re at a saturation point and my basement level apartment is going to be affected sooner or later. We shall see.

    1. Pretty cool. Ironically the “out” call wasn’t actually correct. The ball hit the wall briefly after touching the player, making it a live ball, at which time a re-catch is not an “out”. In order to record an out he’d have to throw the ball to a teammate and the runner would have to be out attempting to reach a base or home plate.

  46. Extremely informative, well explained short term update to the NWS discussion. 2 paragraphs down under synopsis.

  49. On the catch made by the centerfielder I did not see the ball hit the wall. Obviously if it does hit the wall it’s in play and not an out. I did see it hit his arm twice and glove twice. It came very close to the wall but I did not see clear contact with the wall.

  52. I think I remember seeing someone ask about Covid-19 today. Here’s a quick overview on the latest variant of interest: EG.5, also dubbed Eris. Last week UK health officials spotted this new variant of Omicron. It has immune escape characteristics and high transmissibility. It is sweeping across the globe. BUT to date it is NOT considered more severe. Nonetheless, for older folks and immunocompromised it’s important to be vigilant. Hospitalizations and deaths are rising, albeit modestly. Almost all deaths are among the most vulnerable groups.

    I continue to monitor Covid-19 for my work. I will let you know if a variant turns up which is alarming. I do NOT consider this one alarming. But, I do mask in nursing homes, when visiting my 102 year old professor friend. Also, I mask when visiting with a 61 year old friend of mine who’s a cancer survivor and on multiple meds (non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma) and a 72 year old with multiple myeloma. Ventilation is key, too, if you’re indoors with a vulnerable person.

    2. Thanks Joshua! I was replying to Vicki above but I learned upon my arrival to Chicago for a work trip several of my colleagues have either tested positive or were exposed at recent large gatherings

  53. A bit encouraged that the 18z short range models (NAMs, HRRR) shifted the central US disturbance southward compared to their 12z runs.

    Let’s hope this also continues on the 00z runs.

    00z HRRR is running.

  54. One final note on Covid, the very latest data on long Covid suggests that multiple infections increase the chance of getting long Covid. So, it’s always good to avoid illness when you can. Covid’s sequelae aren’t just in the lungs. In some people it attacks the heart, brain, kidneys, and other organs.

    I think that now that many of us have means to work from home when it’s necessary, people ought to stay home when they’re sick. Same applies when you’re going out with friends. It’s best not to do so when you’re sick. I don’t want to sound like an angry Grandpa or curmudgeon. But I have noticed that people have returned to past habits and are in the office, restaurants, and other places with horrible-sounding colds which could be Covid. That’s just not cool. It’s also not smart.

    1. I’m totally guilty of this. Didn’t change any of my habits when I was feeling under the weather. For a minute, I had totally forgotten about COVID, which was actually a good feeling. I hate having to go back to that uneasy feeling all the time.

    1. I remember that term being very used in the 1970s and I thought (at the time) it was actually different. I quickly learned otherwise, and that was one of the sparks (pun intended) getting my interest in weather going. 🙂

      1. Yep. I had some interesting debates with an aunt who insisted it was a true phenomenon. My mom somehow always thought it was a made up idea

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