Thursday August 10 2023 Forecast (6:57AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

A still-active pattern allows plenty of fair weather time between tantrums. One such tantrum is coming in the form of a passing low pressure system tonight. This is the system I’ve been eyeing for a couple days for a brief potential severe storm / tornado threat for the South Coast. It does look like a limited-coverge, short-lived threat for the South Coast region later this evening to the early overnight hours as low pressure passes right over that region. A trough in advance of this system can help kick off a few showers and thunderstorms late today with the help of daytime heating, but expecting only isolated coverage with that and north of I-90. This area will see only limited activity with the nighttime round – mostly just a swath of showers. It’s nearer the South Coast where downpours / thunderstorms / and brief damaging winds can occur. That system is outta here by early Friday, and we’ll have a sun/cloud day with drier air, though comfortably warm, but a gusty breeze. Then while the weekend is looking pretty decent overall, we do have one disturbance to keep an eye on, racing our way via the Great Lakes, later Saturday to early Sunday. The questions regarding the thunderstorm threat with this: Timing? Coverage? Global guidance has been a bit faster, while the shorter range (just on the edge of its time frame) is slower. Global guidance has already proven to be a bit too fast at this range the last couple systems, but not by much. Without over-thinking this and with a couple days to fine-tune it, I’m going with a “Saturday night event” from west to east, in the form of scattered showers and t-storms. Does an additional disturbance prolong the shower / thunderstorm chance on Sunday mainly south of I-90? We will have to re-evaluate that. While a bubble of high pressure brings fair weather at worst by later Sunday (if timing is slower) and at best all of Sunday (with faster timing), we see this continue at least into Monday before we look to the west for the approach of the next disturbance, which for now I think doesn’t get here that day, other than some advanced cloudiness.

TODAY: Sun dominant first half of day, then variably cloudy afternoon. Late-day thunderstorms possible west of I-495. Evening showers eastern CT to RI. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable around 10 MPH by evening.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Downpours and thunderstorms possible mostly south of I-90 which may have the ability to produce isolated tornadoes. Areas of fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, can be briefly strong and gusty near any downpours and thunderstorms mainly south of I-90.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm, especially in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

A generally zonal flow pattern is expected, disturbances passing by with a couple shower and thunderstorm chances – most likely August 15 & 17. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

A weaker westerly flow and a little more high pressure domination overall reduces shower/storm opportunities and allows for a little more late summer heat potential during this period.

117 thoughts on “Thursday August 10 2023 Forecast (6:57AM)”

  3. Darn it. A partial line got deleted from the discussion for tonight, but I restored it. 🙂

  7. What’ up with the HRRR.

    6Z has Sig tor parameter confined to extreme South Coast.
    10Z has Sig tor parameter all the up to NH border
    11Z has sig tor parameter back down to extreme South Coast.

    ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    1. I’ve been asking myself the same question 🙂

      I have a theory.

      It’s clear the vortex with the Tennessee thunderstorms this morning, is going further south.

      So, we’re going to be kind of in between the disturbance to the north and that vortex to the south.

      When that vortex hits the Atlantic off Delaware, VA area, the thunderstorms look to really explode over the ocean.

      So, will that zap energy to its north and leave us in the middle.

      But, looking at the winds and sea level pressures, there’s a hint of a small low/vortex forming near the south coast and that might be able to do the trick.

      I think even the short range models are struggling to work all these features out and determine if the southernmost vortex/disturbance will steal all the energy.

      1. Interesting theory. When I went to bed last night, I was pretty confident that we were out of the woods on this threat. This morning I am more confused than anything.
        SPC still has 2% tornado up to about Boston. Update around 830-900 AM. We shall see if there are any changes.

        SREF has NO 5% contours in our area.

        Then the HRRR thing this morning. We shall see what
        the 12Z runs show.

        I am still leaning towards being out of the woods, but strange things can and do occur, so we can’t let our
        guard down.

        Thanks Tom.

        1. I’m thinking similarly.

          I think yesterday’s 12z scenarios are off the table.

          But, I think a smaller version of it with a small area of significant rains and a spin up opportunity exist in southeast Mass, Cape and islands.

          Will be fun to nowcast.

          Agree, looking forward to 12z HRRR and 12z 3km NAM which is the one model still being most aggressive.

  8. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2023081011&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    So, northern disturbance, Maine thunderstorms.

    Southern disturbance, thunderstorms out over ocean well south of us.

    BUT, look around the Cape and look at the simulated echoes, they look like a smaller vortex/circulation.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sim_ir&rh=2023081011&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Satellite simulation shows the explosion of storms well south of us with the main vortex.

    1. Wouldn’t take much to pull that crap up over SE MA, the Cape and Islands.

      Could be another fun day, but I still lean to “no issues” 🙂

      C’Mon 12Z runs!

  10. Additionally and separately, there might be enough warmth and building humidity to generate some showers/storms around NYC and have those lift northeast thru CT and maybe further into central MA. Those, I think, would lose strength with the setting sun and loss of daytime heating this evening.

    Lots of moving parts today.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Yet another day this summer during which WHW activity (number of posts) will look more like winter.

    Also, I can’t recall a summer during which I’ve seen so many flood watches in effect. I’m sure it’s happened before. But I just can’t recall. July 2021 had its fair share of flood watches, BUT the other months in summer did not, as I remember.

  12. I saw this morning that at least 36 people in Hawaii have lost their lives in Hawaii due to the wild fires. Horrific !!

    In hindsight, it might have been a less deadly scenario had Dora come a lot closer. Not that powerful hurricanes should be taken lightly.

    But, I think the difference in pressure btwn such a low pressure with Dora and a high north of Hawaii dramatically increased the trade winds during a time the islands have been drier than average.

  16. 12z HRRR: a scenario that is possible.

    We are in between.

    If this verifies, still could be some very localized flash flood threats inland southern new England from late afternoon warmth and increasing humidity generated thunderstorms.

      1. These model estimates of precipitation when convective in nature leaves much to be desired.

        I guess we’ll know when it is happening.

        We shall see.

  19. Well, I have a model headache.

    I think I’m going to switch to watching the radars and what might or might not unfold 🙂

  21. The 3km NAM and one of the HWR models do seem to have a small low develop btwn the 2 disturbances. The 3 km NAM takes it into northern New England and the HWR takes it across northern Mass.

    I don’t know but I’m not sold on a non event.

    I think something’s up this evening, something where we look at the radar and see a clump of storms circulating a bit, as a whole.

    Where those will traverse, who knows ?

    PWATs consistently 1.5 approaching 2 inches southernmost areas. Very good moisture to work with.

      1. There is certainly crap approaching.
        What it will be like IF/WHEN it gets here remains to be seen.

        Time will tell.

        I’m still of the opinion this will be pretty much a non-event.
        But I am aware that Mother Nature often likes to throw
        surprises at us. 🙂

  23. We are coming up on the dates of TS Henri two years ago. It was the first time our basement sprung a leak. Had we not been in the basement for a tornado warning over us, we would not have seen it in time for the bucket brigade.

    We only had 1.20 this week. But our ground is spongy. I’d like to not have a deluge today. Please

  24. I am trying to keep up with the discussion but get confused with the terminology. Thought the storms and heaviest rain were sliding to the South. Trying to get a handle on rain amounts in Natick and Foxboro. Is this simply a wait and see situation? Thanks.

  25. Thanks TK.

    Hard to believe that a passing hurricane, hundreds of miles away no less, could cause so much death and destruction in Maui due to wildfires.

    1. You are too kind. Tom’s the one with the analysis.
      I’m MAP MAN!!! 🙂
      Well, I throw a little out there, but Tom’s the man. 🙂

      Cheers

          1. You’re all very kind and great to blog with.

            I’m lucky if 1/3 rd of my weather theories are correct 🙂 🙂

  32. Load’s of convection now moving across Southern and Central Connecticut. “appears” to be moving ENE.

    2. Looks like the Northern extent of this convection
      will clip or fully hit Boston. 🙂

      I have a guy installing a new gutter as we speak. Hope he finishes. 🙂

    1. And the 3km NAM didn’t have a ton of rain, but has a small 4 inch contour in far northeast of Mass and a narrow strip of rain on the Cape.

      I’m looking forward to see what plays out.

      It could be very little region wide and yet I wouldn’t rule out a small area getting hit with localized excessive, heavy rain and I wouldn’t be surprised by a spin up in far, far, far southeast Mass/cape/islands.

      1. i HATE it when there is NO model consistency and we are left blowing in the wind!

        Based on Radar, I’d say MOST of SNE gets some decent rain.

  37. 70F dew points on south coast of CT, RI, MA and parts of the Cape.

    Before 8pm, let’s see if any of those areas get dps closer to 74F or 75F.

    I haven’t seen that modeled that they’ll get that high.

  40. Cape dps getting to 70-72F.

    A few interesting cells headed east northeast.

    I think we’ll need to watch Block Island, MV, Nantucket and the south side of the Cape in a couple hours.

  41. Yes, Vicki, I removed my life vest.

    I’m grateful for the fact that there won’t be that much rain.

    Any more heavy rain and moss will begin growing on my back and mushrooms will begin emerging on my arms.

  42. Well. I may need to find a new team. Sorry Brady no longer with Tampa bay. I at least had them last year.

  43. Hopefully the rain gets out of here so the New England Championship could be decided. The game taking place in Bristol. CT is delayed by rain. Canton MA VS Gray ME. The winner goes to the Little League World Series.

  44. I will be watching. I enjoy watching the Little League World Series as I played Little League baseball for three years. As a kid growing up I knew when the Little League World Series was taking place school was just a few weeks away.

  46. These game usually last around two hours so if they start at 8:15 should be over by around 10:15

  48. 2.49 inches of rain in 1 hr at Montauk, Long Island under that strong thunderstorm.

    We caught a break with this system being further south last 24 hrs.

  50. I have some curiosity to watch the storm about cleared of block island now.

    It has had a special marine warning for a while now for gusty winds and the potential to produce waterspouts.

    If it remains on its track, I think it might cross the northern half of the vineyard and then the southernmost elbow of the cape (Chatham)

  52. Caught my attention, a nice couplet on a cell in western Maine.

    But as explained above, the other conditions might not be favorable.

            1. There is a cell in Bethel area and one just south but I got lost when I saw Lovel. My uncle had a 22 acre ski camp on lovewell pond in fryeberg. I somehow found it. The road has been named for him. Kearsley rd.

              And off Vicki went from couplet chasing to memories

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