Saturday August 12 2023 Forecast (8:30AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

The weekend’s weather is not going to be bad at all. The “interruption” potential is there, but really only in a short time window. A trough of low pressure will generate strong thunderstorms in NY State today and some of them may reach far western New England toward or around sunset, and others may kick off in western New England ahead of this toward evening. This area will move eastward, but with diurnal support needed and being lost, they will weaken, with showers and a few storms reaching western portions of the WHW forecast area (west of Worcester) after 8PM and any remains reaching eastern portions of the forecast area after 10PM. After that just some lingering showers and maybe a renegade thunderstorm can be around overnight as a cold front approaches and moves into the region. As far as viewing the peak hours of the Perseid meteor shower late tonight / early Sunday (midnight to daybreak), it’ll be a hit and miss prospect with variable cloud cover, and the threat of passing showers. The cold front will be right in the I-95 belt Sunday morning to midday when a few more downpours and storms can be generated, but then the front will move offshore during midday and afternoon, with a more tranquil finish to Sunday. Humidity levels will be coming up today, but not to excessive levels, peaking tonight and Sunday morning, before dropping off a little later Sunday. A small area of high pressure brings fair weather for Monday, but high clouds will already be moving in ahead of the next low pressure system, destined to make Tuesday an unsettled day. This will happen as its warm front brings one round of showers in the early hours of Tuesday, and a trough / cold front combo brings a couple rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms during the day. Timing / coverage / intensity still need to be worked out and I’ll attempt to provide more detail on that on the next blog post. That system pulls away, replaced by a mild to warm and drier air mass for Wednesday with very nice mid August weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising to 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers / thunderstorms, highest chance southern NH to central MA evening. Patchy ground fog late. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorm morning and midday, diminishing from west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun then some clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

A drier overall regime with a westerly air flow dominating. One disturbance brings a shower and thunderstorm chance late August 17 to early August 18 with another shot around August 20. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

A weaker westerly flow with near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperatures for late August.

55 thoughts on “Saturday August 12 2023 Forecast (8:30AM)”

  6. Thanks TK
    I would not be surprised to see a tornado watch in parts of PA and Upstate NY today. If there is any severe weather in SNE far western areas.

  11. I am reading that tornado warning now. Radar indicated rotation in addition to half dollar size hail.

    2. It’s got a very, very healthy looking couplet and an ominous look on radar. Classic supercell, plenty of purple (hail) and hook echo on its southwest side.

  12. I think we’re going to see a lot of wind hail reports coming out of parts of Ohio Pennsylvania and new York today along with a couple tornado reports. That cell were talking about is just the beginning for the areas I mentioned

  17. Wow. Only 25 (now 26) comments so far today!

    This may very well be the fewest since last winter. YAWN.

  18. Cape dps, coastal RI and CT >= 70F

    Heavy shower riding right along that boundary.

    Tough weather day out in Ohio.

    Still a decent couplet along with a hook echo from time to time on a cell, perhaps the one JpDave mentioned just above.

  20. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch went up for my until midnight tonight. Will see what happens to those warned storms as they are coming into the Hudson River Valley of NY.

  21. I could feel the difference in the humidity. Earlier in the day nice and comfortable. I have a feeling those severe warned storms at the Hudson River Valley will weaken when they come my way.

  22. Not so much overnight but tomorrow morning could be quite noisy around here. According to AJ Waterman on Ch. 7, between 6-10 a.m.

  23. I am hearing thunder and waiting to see if a severe warned storm holds together as it heads my way which currently has 60mph wind gusts and 1.25 inch size hail.

  25. Vicki here was a tweet on that storm from NWS NY which came out about two minutes ago.

    [8:20pm Update]: The storm heading into Putnam County and NW Fairfield County has potential to produce considerable wind damage and potential for 70 mph wind gusts

  26. No that is not my area. That storm looks to be going south of me. Back over the boarder in the Hudson River Valley of NY looking at power outages of 4,983 in Dutchess County and 3,194 in Ulster County where that severe thunderstorm went through.

    1. My sister lives in LaGrange – near Poughkeepsie and it’s bad. They lost power and then lights came back on but now lost again. Lots of lightning and torrential rain

  27. That storm looked nasty in the Poughkeepsie area. Looking at the power outages numbers clearly there was enough wind damage to knock out power.

  28. Yes it is. A lot of lightning happening right now. There is a tornado possible attached to this severe thunderstorm warning. Currently 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  30. These storms have come down a bit from earlier. Earlier look at half dollar size hail and 70 mph wind gusts just over the boarder in NY.

  31. The 18z run of the HRRR from Friday nailed the location and time where these thunderstorms would be in CT.

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